r/stlouisblues

I 100% believe he saw almost this exact scenario coming years ago. Not that it was some big secret that the cap was going to go up, but knowing the value of not having to negotiate with your potential star players while the cap fluctuates is becoming pretty clear right now. In the context of what Leo Carlsson is about to make as a 1C (and, as a result, Bedard/Celebrini/etc...), Robert Thomas's contract is absurd.

This is totally out of concern/fear given what's happening to the RFA market this off-season. Jimmy is a top line forward with great ability and I want him with Robert Thomas and Dylan Holloway for a while. More than that, I don't want him to test the RFA market next year just so we can find ourselves in a position where a conference rival gives him a huge offer and puts us in a similar predicament to the Ducks right now.

Is a fair comparison the Jason Robertson deal he signed with Dallas at $7.75M for 4 years? I think that started in 2022-23 when the cap was $82.5M which would have made his first year cap hit 9.4% of the cap that season. Robertson was coming off a 79 points on 74 games season when he signed that (previous season was 45 points on 51 games).

Jimmy just produced 51 points in 70 games. Might a similar season or a more productive one that follows the trajectory of a player like Jason Robertson's start could warrant a 4 year deal with a 9.4% cap hit. If yes, then let's consider that in dollar terms. The cap is projected to go up to $113.5M in 2027-28. A 9.4% cap hit would mean an AAV of $10.67M for a contract. It's hard for me to look at that number and say yea that's a good price, but maybe I just haven't adapted to the cap going up so much.

Obviously the Robertson comparison is just one comparison and maybe not even the most fair one. A better one might be Logan Cooley getting $10Mx8yrs in Utah after his first 3 years last season. But even if it's only somewhat close, the Blues might want to consider that extension sooner than later before some other team goes crazy and forces us to pay an even more outrageous number.

TLDR; slow day during the off season

Been thinking about the offseason thus far..really, a couple of things break right for us next season and suddenly we're a team that nobody wants to play.

• the skills guys all have size now so it's not like the resident goons can go and injure them.
• now that we have a tough guy, everybody know there'll be a price to be paid for that kind of thing (thank you Steen). Tom Wilson should think twice before he goes after somebody like Snuggerud.
• legitimate centers on the team now, not just trying to shoehorn Buch into it. Maybe buch has a bounceback year
• Mailloux may be overexposed on the first pairing over the course of a whole season, and a bonafide #1 D man to pair with Broberg would be welcome but maybe Jiricek shows up ready to go next season.
• Hofer is legit #1 from day 1 and the competitive Jordan Binnington realizes that his next contract with his next team is on the line and shows up like the old Binnington.

If any coach in the league is going to get a bounceback year from Mctavish...or coax 20 goals out of McMichael, it's Monty. And I like that they've got a task master now play bad cop on the coaching staff.

Anyway things are looking all right from where I sit, looking forward to next season

As the post says, it was expected but now it’s official. This is good news for Carbonneau as he seems like the mostly likely to take this slot. Under the previous provision, I believe he would’ve been in one of those unfortunate circumstances where he’d either have to make the NHL team or go back to the CHL since he isn’t yet 20 (turns 20 in November) but now he has a direct path to start the year in Springfield. His production suggests he should be done with the Q but not ready for the NHL, so this would be a great fit. I’m pretty intrigued to see the Thunderbirds roster assuming they retain a lot of the playoff team and add guys like Jiricek (already 20) and Carbonneau.

Fanduel sports network lost rights to the Blues, has there been any mention or rumor of which streaming service will pick it up? Just curious since I can't watch them on ESPN+ bc of Blackout.

Do you think we should bring him back?

He fielded a lot of questions about the Dube signing.

Before I begin, let me just say that this is not a suggestion that Kessel is the second coming of Larry Robinson, or that his usage alone determines our fate every game. But perhaps after I make the evidentiary case below, it will become apparent something is rather amiss with his usage.

Let's start with the simple stuff. The Blues have won 7 of the last 9 games Kessel played, with a GAA of 2.00 even, and he was not a minus in any of them. He has not played since we shutout Carolina nearly three weeks ago. Since then, we've gone 2-5-1, allowing just under 4 goals per game - nearly double to Kessel's last 9 appearances.

The two Kessel games prior to those nine games were both 3-2 OT loss. In those 11 games, the team had two shutouts, two games allowing 1 goal, two games allowing two goals in regulation, two games allowing 3 goals, then also one allowing 4 and one allowing 6 (the @ Colorado debacle). He wasn't a minus player in any of those games.

For the entire season, we have an 11-5-5 record with a regulation goal differential of +1 and a GAA around 2.40 when Kessel plays. We are 9-21-4 with a regulation goal differential of -46 and a GAA right at 4.00 even when he doesn't. I used regulation goal differential because Kessel never plays in OT or shoots in a shootout.

The funny thing is, Mr. Accountability... erm, coach Monty has benched Kessel 6 times after he took part in a victory, including twice after shutout wins.

Now let's drop some individual stat comparisons.

The Faulk-Kessel pairing leads the team in goal share by a wide margin (66.7%, with Fowler-Faulk all the way back at 54.2%) and stands 3rd in xG share (53.1%) behind only Brobs-Colt and Brobs-Faulk.

Individually, he's the only Blues Dman at 50% on-ice goal share (next best is Faulk at 45.2%), and 3rd in on-ice xG share (44.4%, behind Fowler and Parayko). Kessel is 3rd best in giveaways per 60, and well below Tucker and Mailloux - his only real competitors for ice time - in D zone giveaways per 60 (Kessel 2.11 to Tucker at 2.64 and Mailloux at 3.04).

Kessel also blocks considerably more shots (an outlier career low 3.41 per 60) than Tucker (2.83) and Mailloux (2.79).

Regarding penalties taken, both Tucker and Mailloux take pens at more than three times the rate (Kessel 0.49 per 60 to Tucker at 1.6 and Mailloux at 1.67).

Stunningly, he's also 4th among our Dmen in points per 60, behind Tucker, Brobs and Faulk - despite shooting far less than every other Dman. He's also incredibly 2nd on the team in rush chances (behind Colt).

I could go on and on, but this is already an unwieldy ton of info. Let's just go with this.

So what gives? This is very Bannister-y stuff. I totally get why Mailloux gets more games than he actually earns, but gosh maybe a few more sits could help him (the AHL stint certainly did, at least for a little while). As for Tucker, it makes no sense why he's an automatic ink starter. The guy has only sat 5 games all season, and Kessel has dramatically outperformed him and the team has fared far better when Kessel plays.

Kessel has much better results and is far more reliable/predictable. He's also played tougher competition than Mailloux and roughly the same level of competition as Tucker. Make it make sense, please.

Any targets yall would like the team to go after?

Any players you think are worth taking a flyer on?

I think Macceli (not qualified by Toronto) could be interesting. 25 yrs old, has shown flashes of skill, but definitely needs to tighten up on defense and effort at times.

Also, Laine could be interesting on a cheap deal. Only played 5 games last year with 1 point. Assuming injuries are cleared up by now, could be fired up to prove that he is still a force in the league.

Anyone know when They are releasing it? Every team except blues, stars, wild, and Blackhawks released it last week.

Anyone with some insider info? thanks