u/athleticwonder

Friedman recently raised the possibility of Edmonton looking at Vladimir Tarasenko after several teams reportedly checked on him following the opening of free agency.

The Oilers appear to have enough room for a one-year contract, and Tarasenko is coming off a 23-goal season. The obvious concern is speed. Edmonton needs another scorer, but it could also use a winger who retrieves pucks and helps drive play.

My opinion is that he makes sense around $2.5 million to $3 million, but not near his previous $4.75-million cap hit.

Would you sign him, or save the space for the trade deadline?

If Utah matches the Barrett Hayton offer sheet, Shane Wright appears to be one of the more interesting alternatives for New Jersey.

Wright had 27 points in 74 games last season after producing 44 points the previous year. His cap hit is below $900,000, and New Jersey would control his rights after his entry-level contract expires.

The concern is Seattle’s asking price. The Kraken reportedly want fair value and are under no obligation to move him cheaply. My estimate would be a second-round pick plus a B-level prospect or young roster player.

Would that be too much for Wright, or is his age and upside worth the gamble?

The Adam Fantilli offer sheet speculation is growing following Philadelphia’s $90-million offer sheet for Leo Carlsson.

There is no confirmed report that the Flyers have contacted Fantilli, so I treated it as a logical possibility rather than a done deal. The interesting part is that Columbus currently appears to have enough cap space to match almost any offer.

Using the current cap projection:

• A $10 million contract would leave Columbus with roughly $11.46 million.
• A $15 million contract would leave approximately $6.46 million.
• An $18 million contract would still fit, leaving about $3.46 million.

Anything above roughly $11.94 million would carry four first-round picks as compensation.

Do you think Columbus should match regardless of the number, or is there a point where taking four first-round picks becomes the better decision?

Leo Carlsson’s five-year offer sheet at an $18-million AAV seems to have completely changed the negotiating environment for Connor Bedard.

Before the Carlsson agreement, Bedard’s reported eight-year range was around $13 million to $16 million annually. At $18 million, the total value becomes $144 million. That is between $16 million and $40 million more than the previous range over an eight-year term.

I still believe Chicago matches any offer sheet and keeps Bedard. The bigger issue is that the Blackhawks may have lost their best comparable and most of their leverage.

Do you think Bedard should receive more than Carlsson, or should he take less to help Chicago build around him?

Friedman reported that the Blues have taken a long look at Alexander Nikishin. Carolina reportedly wants a player who can help immediately and previously rejected a Rangers offer involving a first-round pick and another selection.

Nikishin had 11 goals and 33 points as a rookie, made the All-Rookie Team and would fit the age range of the Blues’ developing core. The difficult part is his next contract, which could consume most of St. Louis’ available cap space.

Who would you consider available, and where would you draw the line?

With Wright’s agent confirming that Seattle has agreed to move him this summer, Philadelphia looks like an interesting potential destination.

My view is that the Flyers only become the leading contender if Anaheim matches the Carlsson offer sheet. If the Ducks decline, Philadelphia gets Carlsson and no longer needs Wright. If Anaheim matches, the Flyers keep their four first-round picks and could pursue a much cheaper young centre.

Wright had 27 points last season after recording 44 the year before, but he averaged under 14 minutes per game and saw limited power-play time. I still think there is legitimate top-six upside if another team gives him a consistent role.

What would be a fair return, and would Seattle consider a futures-based package if it cannot land an established scorer directly?

The Flyers dropping a 5-year, $90M ($18M AAV) offer sheet on Leo Carlsson is officially confirmed. The Ducks have until July 10th to match or take four 1st-round picks.

Here is a quick look at the cap math and why this is so brilliant by Briere:

• The Cap Hit: The 26-27 cap is projected at $104M. Carlsson's $18M AAV eats up 17.3% of that. That’s a massive chunk that will force Anaheim to rethink its entire future core if they match.
• The Leverage: Briere isn't just trying to sign a player; he used pure financial leverage to force a rebuilding team to either blow up their cap structure or give away a 21-year-old franchise center who just put up 67 points and 11 points in 12 playoff games.
• Why Anaheim should match: Four 1st-rounders sound amazing, but picks are mystery boxes. You hope one of those picks turns into a Leo Carlsson. Proven high-end 1Cs are too rare to let walk.

Do you guys think Briere overpaid, or is this the exact right time to make a ruthless move?

Nick Kypreos reported that if the Minnesota Wild want Dylan Larkin, the Detroit Red Wings would want Matt Boldy in return.

I broke down why this is such a tough trade idea. Larkin gives Minnesota the top-six center they need, but Boldy is younger, cheaper, signed long-term, and has strong chemistry with Kaprizov.

From Detroit’s side, I get why Yzerman would ask for Boldy. If you are trading your captain and top center, you need a legit young NHL player back.

But from Minnesota’s side, I do not think this is a move they can make without creating another major hole.

Would you do Boldy for Larkin?

The Jets adding Skinner feels like more than a normal backup signing. If Hellebuyck stays, Winnipeg has a strong tandem. If he gets moved, they are not scrambling for a goalie.

Buffalo and Carolina have both been connected, but the return would have to be massive. I don’t see Winnipeg moving Hellebuyck unless the package includes a premium young player/prospect plus a serious draft asset.

Would you trade Hellebuyck now, or is that the one move the Jets can’t afford to make?

Claude Giroux is still unsigned, and the Flyers have been linked to a possible reunion. Ottawa reportedly still has the door open, too, so this feels like a real decision for Giroux.

I don’t think this should be viewed as just a nostalgia signing. If the Flyers can get him on a one-year deal around $2M–$3M, he could still help as a right-shot forward, faceoff option, power-play piece, and veteran leader.

The key is the role. He is not the old 90-point Giroux anymore, but he still had 49 points last season and could be useful in the right deployment.

Would you bring him back, or should the Flyers avoid the sentimental move?

After the chaos of free agency, I think this is one of the most interesting rumors left on the board.

Dallas has a cap issue if Robertson really wants around $14M AAV. Pittsburgh has over $25M in cap space, some assets, and just traded for his brother Nick Robertson.

I wrote up a breakdown on whether this is actually realistic, what the Stars would want, and whether the brother connection means anything.

Would you do it if you were Pittsburgh?

Zach Werenski reportedly declined to waive his no-movement clause for a trade to the Dallas Stars, and the belief is he would prefer to stay in the Eastern Conference. Toronto has been connected to him, which raises a huge question for Leafs fans.

Would you include Matthew Knies in a Werenski trade, or should the Leafs draw the line there and build an offer around Easton Cowan, Ben Danford, picks, and salary?

I broke down the fit, the possible trade package, and why Columbus may still push hard for an NHL-ready piece.

Hey everyone, put together a comprehensive breakdown of the breaking rumors linking the Rangers to Hurricanes RFA Alexander Nikishin. It covers why Carolina is listening (the John Carlson cap crunch effect), what our internal trade-value models say Drury would actually have to give up to satisfy their roster player demand, and the exact 5v5 transition metrics that prove why Nikishin is a perfect fit next to Braden Schneider. Would love to hear your thoughts on what you'd be willing to give up to pull this off.

There’s an interesting wrinkle in the Darnell Nurse trade rumors. The Sharks have reportedly made a play for him, but San Jose is not believed to be on Nurse’s preferred destination list.

That makes this less about whether Edmonton can find interest and more about whether Nurse is willing to expand his list. The cap math is also tough because his $9.25M AAV runs through 2029-30, and Edmonton may need to retain salary or take money back.

Would Sharks fans want Nurse if Edmonton retained salary? And for Oilers fans, what is the minimum return that makes moving him worth it?

Sergei Bobrovsky has been linked to the Toronto Maple Leafs, and I think the fit is more interesting than people want to admit.

The case for it: Toronto needs goaltending stability after moving Joseph Woll, Anthony Stolarz has familiarity with Bobrovsky from Florida, and Bobrovsky has the playoff resume the Leafs have lacked in net.

The case against it: he is 37, his recent numbers were rough, and any long-term contract would be dangerous.

My take: one year or two years at a reasonable cap hit makes sense. Anything close to a long-term retirement contract should be an automatic no.

Would Leafs fans take Bobrovsky in a tandem with Stolarz?

Darren Dreger was on TSN 1050 and mentioned the Dallas Stars as a team to watch in the Zach Werenski rumors.

The interesting part is that he suggested a package involving a Dallas defenseman could potentially work. That obviously makes Thomas Harley the name everyone will talk about.

From Columbus’ side, Harley would make sense because they cannot trade Werenski for futures alone. From Dallas’ side, Werenski is better right now, but Harley is younger and locked up long term.

Would you do Harley + 1st + prospect for Werenski, or is that too much?

I just put together a full breakdown on the rumor connecting Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blue Jackets to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Main takeaways:

• Toronto is the kind of fit that makes a lot of hockey sense
• Werenski would instantly become the Leafs’ No. 1 defenseman
• The price would be huge
• Columbus should want NHL-ready pieces, not just picks
• This could become one of the biggest stories of the offseason

Curious what Leafs and Blue Jackets fans think, what would a realistic package even look like?

Steve Yzerman has now acknowledged that Dylan Larkin’s agent requested a trade, but it does not sound like the Red Wings are close to moving him.

The biggest reason is leverage. Larkin has five years left on his deal, and Detroit does not have to accept a weak offer just because the captain wants a change.

My view: unless a team offers a young NHL-ready center, a premium prospect, and/or a strong pick package, Yzerman should wait.

Would you trade Larkin now, wait until training camp, or force him to return?

Reports have linked the Montreal Canadiens and Dallas Stars to Mathew Barzal, with both teams believed to have checked in with the Islanders.

The Canadiens angle makes sense because they need a top-six forward to play with Ivan Demidov. The Stars angle is interesting because Barzal could be viewed as a possible Jason Robertson replacement if Dallas decides to reshape its core.

But from the Islanders’ side, I don’t see how this happens unless the return includes an NHL-ready star or a major young piece. Picks and prospects alone probably should not be enough.

Would you trade Barzal? And if yes, what is the realistic return?

Robertson reportedly turned down Seattle’s huge offer and was not interested in signing with St. Louis despite a multi-first-round-pick package. I put together a breakdown of why Dallas may still be the favorite to re-sign him, what an offer sheet would cost, and why a trade only works if Robertson approves the destination.

Curious what Stars fans think: would you pay him $14M AAV?