u/Fun_Chain_3834 — reddlx

The Great Compromisers — 1848 Whig National Convention (Ballot 1)

READ CONTEXT BELOW BEFORE VOTING (Additional context here!)

President Henry Clay has held firm to his commitment to serve only a single term, and now looks to entrust the Whig machine to a new leader. He leaves a mixed legacy—while he avoided sparking sectional tensions over territorial expansion into Mexico, he failed in almost every single domestic policy he attempted to implement, and some argue that the independence of Texas and California is hanging by a thread, especially in light of rising tensions over slavery, Mormonism, and the ensuing Gold Rush. Who will the Whigs look to to carry them through such restless times? Several primary candidates are under consideration by the delegates to the 1848 Whig National Convention in Philadelphia.

John M. Clayton (Delaware) — Secretary of State

No one can be said to have influenced the Clay administration more than John Middleton Clayton (besides maybe Clay himself). As Secretary of State, Clayton successfully negotiated the United States through the Mexican Crisis, securing the southwestern “border republics.” He is the natural successor to Clay and has solid support from the die-hard Whigs who would prefer to not see the nomination go to some unengaged war hero. However, his path to the nomination has hit a roadblock: despite being from a slave state, Clayton is suspected of harboring anti-slavery views and is even rumored to have emancipated his inherited slaves, injuring his candidacy in the south.

John Bell (Tennessee) — Senator

Many Southern Whigs had hoped to unite around an apolitical Southerner, such as General Zachary Taylor; however, Taylor’s minor role in the conflict has earned him little fanfare, and he has stated he has no desire for the nomination. This has left Southerners with little choice but to turn to a Southern politician like Senator John Bell. A former long-time member of the House, former Secretary of War, and dedicated Clay supporter, Bell may be the best chance the Whigs have of keeping the party united.

Winfield Scott (New York) — Commanding General of the United States Army

General Scott (“Old Fuss and Feathers”) is a strong national figure, heralded as a diligent public servant whose steady hand guides the nation’s military. He has been a potential candidate for the Whig nomination since the party's inception, and his successful, restrained conduct in the Texas theater of the Mexican Crisis makes him an obvious candidate; however, his friendship with abolitionist Whigs in New York and Ohio, who are also the main supporters of his campaign, means he has little to no traction in the South.

Robert F. Stockton (New Jersey) — Commodore of the United States Navy

Commodore Stockton (“Fighting Bob”) has emerged as a popular hero from the US-backed Californian independence campaign. A scion of New Jersey businessmen and politicians, little to nothing is known of Stockton’s politics, even on the question of California and Texas annexation. His place in the north–south rift is also uncertain: he comes from the most South-friendly state in the North, but as a naval officer, he actively enforced abolition of the international slave trade, and supported the American Colonization Society; however, he has proclaimed he has no moral or legal qualms with slavery, which might assuage some Southerners.

Daniel Webster (Massachusetts) — Senator

The aging Senator from Massachusetts has a prolific record as part of the Great Triumvirate of the Senate, yet he has run dry of political capital for quite some time. Webster was ostracized from power and patronage when Henry Clay (his once friend and now feud-partner) assumed the presidency, and his control is limited to the rapidly- shrinking coalition of New England “Cotton Whigs.” Nonetheless, Webster hopes to take advantage of a contested convention to reassert his authority.

The five main candidates for the Whig nomination in 1848. Clockwise from top left: Secretary of State John M. Clayton, Senator John Bell, General Winfield Scott, Senator Daniel Webster, and Commodore Robert F. Stockton

Who will win the nomination? Vote here!

docs.google.com

u/Fun_Chain_3834 — 1 day ago

▲ 14 r/Presidentialpoll

The Great Compromisers — Prologue

“The nays have it, by two votes! The proposal to reestablish the ⅔-majority rule fails!”

And with that announcement, it was assured that Martin Van Buren would be delivered the Democratic nomination for President a third time, and with it, the hope of a pro-expansion Democratic nominee went out the window. But even before the first ballot could be completed, Southern delegates began to bolt from the Convention, and led by South Carolina Senator John C. Calhoun, they marched down to the National Convention being held for John Tyler’s independent bid for a second term. The new movement, known as the National Democratic Party or “Tyler Democrats,” managed to split the Democratic Party in twain across North and South. Defeat in the upcoming election was all but ensured.

The Whigs, however, looked on in glee. Together, they rallied for the Great Compromiser, Henry Clay, and his American System, and rested easy with the thought that the spectre of sectionalism and dispute over expansion of slavery into new territories was put to bed. The road, however, would not be easy. While winning the electoral college in a landslide, Clay managed only 47% of the popular vote (less than the Van Buren and Tyler vote combined) and faced Democratic House and Senate majorities.

As such, Clay’s domestic agenda was over before it began. Clay attempted to pass a bill establishing a Third National Bank that was dead on arrival in the House. The Democratic alternative, the Independent Treasury Act, passed the House and Senate, and Clay, ever the respecter of the primacy of the “first branch,” respectfully signed it, to the admonition of congressional Whigs. Clay was slightly more successful at preventing tariff reform; the Tariff Reduction Act failed in the Senate, forcing Democrats to bargain piecemeal for reductions in specific industries.

Most importantly, President Clay’s term would be defined by foreign policy. Elected on an anti-annexation platform, Clay viewed territorial expansion as a gateway to sectionalist arguments over slavery. President Clay and his Secretary of State John Middleton Clayton took a diplomatic approach, with Secretary Clayton worked tirelessly towards peaceful solutions to both the Texas and Oregon disputes. The United States and Britain signed the Treaty of Oregon, establishing a national border at the 49th Parallel, and in late 1845, Secretary Clayton and President of Mexico José Joaquín de Herrera announced a treaty wherein Mexico would recognize an independent Texas with a southern border at the Nueces River. However, following the announcement of the treaty, President de Herrera was overthrown in a coup for his perceived weakness on Texas.

The next two years would plummet the continent into crisis regardless of the Whig’s efforts. In June of 1846, William B. Ide attempted a revolt in California, proclaiming an independent, pro-American, California Republic. The revolt failed to garner support from either the United States government or the Californios, and failed miserably, inflaming tensions and driving independence-supporting Californios to appeal to the British and French for support. As Mexican instability grew, including a series of coups between monarchist and federalist factions, the Californios instituted their own revolt, proclaiming a second California Republic with weak Anglo-American support. The United States appealed Mexico to resume negotiations over Texas and California, this time with the support of the new British Foreign Secretary Lord Palmerston. President Santa Anna refused, marking the start of a quasi-war spanning the southwest.

In the east, the United States Army under Winfield Scott supported the Texas Army, but refused their appeals to cross the Nueces River. A blockade of Mexican ports formed with British naval support. In the west, the combined strength of the British and American Pacific fleets, the Californian Army under Commandant General José Castro, as well as a small American expeditionary force, quickly dislodged pro-Mexican forces. After Secretary Clayton threatened an invasion of the Mexican heartland (and impressed upon the Mexican government the growing calls for American annexation the longer the conflict drew on), the Mexican government agreed to arbitration. The combined Treaties of Yerba Buena and San Antonio established the following:

Mexican recognition of the Republic of Texas (again with a southern border at the Nueces river)
Mexican recognition of the independent Republic of California, with an eastern border at the Colorado river
United States control of the Port of Yerba Buena (later known as San FranciscoTerritory)
US- and British-backed compensation to Mexico for lost territories, with additional funds to be given to the new Republics to establish legitimate credit.

It is now 1848. Despite the end of the Mexican Crisis, little is certain in the American Southwest. John Sutter, the first elected President of the California Republic, has discovered gold on his ranch in northern California, and word is spreading across the continent. President Sutter is determined to use the ensuing Gold Rush to California’s favor. Meanwhile, Democrats are increasingly irate at the denial of Texas and California territory, especially at the hands of British influence, and are determined to bring the new nations under the American Flag, come what may. President Clay has remained ever a “Great Compromiser” yet most of the Whig dream lies unfulfilled. In line with his beliefs, Clay has announced he will not stand for reelection, leaving another Whig to take up the mantle. Will President Clay’s successor finally bring the American System to fruition? Will the Democrats, now united in Manifest Destiny and Popular Sovereignty, succeed in their plans of an expansionist United States? Can the Whigs continue to successfully circumnavigate sectional tensions and endure, or have the cracks in the foundation already formed? Let’s find out together in a new r/Presidentialpoll election series!

u/Fun_Chain_3834 — 1 day ago

▲ 9 r/HistoricalWhatIf

What happens to California without the Mexican-American War?

Several alternate history scenarios have argued that if Henry Clay won the 1844 presidential election he likely would have prevented (or delayed) the Mexican-American War by not annexing Texas (and/or negotiating Mexico's recognition of an independent Texas). What is less explored (imo) is what happens to California. By 1845, California was in open revolt and Governor Pio Pico was advocating for independence from Mexico, possibly with British backing. The question seemed not to be whether to secede, but whether to be independent or join the United States.

So what happens to California if there is no Mexican-American War? Do American immigrants still try to overthrow the Mexican government in the Bear Flag Revolt if there is no active war? If not, when do Californios declare independence, and what do you think would have happened to them, especially considering the impending gold rush starting in 1848?

reddit.com

u/Fun_Chain_3834 — 23 days ago

▲ 4 r/AlternateHistory

How do you form new political party systems?

As a historical politics lover, one of my favorite things about alt-history is the ability to reshape political history, including the political parties and coalitions behind them. Most of my alt-history projects center on the Reconstruction through Progressive era in the US, and I usually aim to get rid of either of the main parties (Democrats and Republicans) to create a new system because, frankly, it’s more fun. The problem is, I seldom feel like it actually works.

Usually, I have to resort to hand-waving scenarios, e.g., the Democrats become so unpopular that they merge into the Populist Party. But political parties (in the US anyway) are very entrenched, and though there have been a lot of break-aways (Populists, Progressives, Reform, etc.), in the long term, it’s incredibly difficult for these movements to have enough power to overtake the dominant parties. Historically, parties can do pretty terribly and still survive, and if a new party forms after a collapse, it’s 90% made up of the same people from the former party with similar beliefs!

A particularly egregious example of this being handled poorly (imo) is Turtledove’s Southern Victory series, where the Democrats become the dominant party and Republicans transform into the Socialist Party. You’re telling me all of the pro-tariff, pro-industrialist Republicans either abandoned their beliefs to become socialists or were welcomed into the Democratic Party with open arms? To the point that Thomas Brackett Reed, a prominent conservative, pro-tariff former Republican, becomes a Democratic president? Parties don’t work like that!

However, I’m worried I might just be a curmudgeon crying about “but muh realism,” so I ask: does anyone else struggle with this? How do you rationalize these sort of massive political realignments, or do you just not think too much about it?

reddit.com

u/Fun_Chain_3834 — 3 months ago