u/GaelicJohn_PreTanner

To settle the first question I predict -- yes she is my full sister. We share 2,567cM of DNA and all our known DNA matches.

I have an unknown DNA match in my top 20 closest matches that I share 175cM which Ancestry indicates could be some type of second cousin.

However, my sister only shares about one fifth of this at 39cM with this match which Ancestry places two generations father back.

What, if anything, could possibly be determined about this match and were he might fit in our pedigree tree. He is a person of interest as it seems likely that he is related to us through one of our unknown great-great grandfathers. Both parents of our maternal grandmother were born to unwed, single mothers in the late 1890s on the West Virginia and Ohio border. After decades of genealogy, no one I know has been able to identify either man.

Unfortunately, few of our shared matches in common with this 175/39 cM matches have much in the way of developed trees. I have struggled to make much headway in figuring out how we could be related. It doesn't help that we appear to quickly end up with Irish immigrants in the mid to late 19th century with all the repeating and common names, both first and last.

Anybody here very familiar with WATO (What Are The Odds) analysis. How accurate are the results? How likely would some option that does not show up as a hypothesis to be possible?

The Rest Of The Story

One of the only two of my closest 20 matches that I have yet to place in my pedigree tree was adopted after her birth in 1954. A couple of years ago I built a WATO analysis tree with ~35 of our shared matches to which I know how I am related.

This analysis clearly showed that our MRCA was my maternal Great Great Grandfather. But there were four or five possible results, the highest ones descended from one of my Great Great Grandfather's daughters. At the time, we figured that we had identified one of my match's grandmothers, but could not show which child was a parent to her.

I returned to this analysis today and there are a few new DNA matches in the pedigree tree descended from this great great grandfather, including a new one descended from the suspected grandmother.

When I plugged in these new matches to my WATO tree, and clicked on the 'Suggest Hypotheses' button, it returned exactly one. That my matches parent would be an unknown child of my great great grandfather. This was rather exciting because of the 9 of the 11 children were in the WATO tree and I figured that one of them should be the unknown parent. The two unlisted children were one daughter and son.

Going to my ThruLines for this great-great-grandfather, I found a shared DNA match that is the great great grandchild of the unlisted son. I added him to the WATO tree as well as his sister, that unfortunately has no DNA matches on Ancestry, to the tree.

When I did this and reran the Suggest Hypotheses, I now get two. One as a child of the previously unlisted son with a score of 1 and the strongest hopothesis with a score of 9 descended from an unknown sibling to the 11 children listed for my great great grandfather.

My question, finally, does that 9 to 1 odds have any bearing, if -- as far as I know -- there are no unknown children of my great great grandfather. I have lots of documentation of his life and family, including all his censuses from 1880 through 1930. Nothing indicates the possibility that he and his wife had another child.

If the hypothesis was for a half sibling to the 11 known, that could be something -- that could be an affair or something. But a full sibling is hard to justify. If I eliminate this possibility, that just leaves the second hypothesis. I understand from my reading that any hypothesis is supposed to be possible, even if less likely.

So does my conclusion make sense? If we eliminate the unknown child, does that only leave the other hypothesis? Is there any possibility of any unidentified hypotheses?

Thank You for reading all of this.

ETA: The hypotheses changed when I realized I was using the older version: WATO Alpha. By changing to WATO Beta I now get 9 possible hypothesis.

Anybody here very familiar with WATO (What Are The Odds) analysis. How accurate are the results? How likely would some option that does not show up as a hypothesis to be possible?

The Rest Of The Story

One of the only two of my closest 20 matches that I have yet to place in my pedigree tree was adopted after her birth in 1954. A couple of years ago I built a WATO analysis tree with ~35 of our shared matches to which I know how I am related.

This analysis clearly showed that our MRCA was my maternal Great Great Grandfather. But there were four or five possible results, the highest ones descended from one of my Great Great Grandfather's daughters. At the time, we figured that we had identified one of my match's grandmothers, but could not show which child was a parent to her.

I returned to this analysis today and there are a few new DNA matches in the pedigree tree descended from this great great grandfather, including a new one descended from the suspected grandmother.

When I plugged in these new matches to my WATO tree, and clicked on the 'Suggest Hypotheses' button, it returned exactly one. That my matches parent would be an unknown child of my great great grandfather. This was rather exciting because of the 9 of the 11 children were in the WATO tree and I figured that one of them should be the unknown parent. The two unlisted children were one daughter and son.

Going to my ThruLines for this great-great-grandfather, I found a shared DNA match that is the great great grandchild of the unlisted son. I added him to the WATO tree as well as his sister, that unfortunately has no DNA matches on Ancestry, to the tree.

When I did this and reran the Suggest Hypotheses, I now get two. One as a child of the previously unlisted son with a score of 1 and the strongest hopothesis with a score of 9 descended from an unknown sibling to the 11 children listed for my great great grandfather.

My question, finally, does that 9 to 1 odds have any bearing, if -- as far as I know -- there are no unknown children of my great great grandfather. I have lots of documentation of his life and family, including all his censuses from 1880 through 1930. Nothing indicates the possibility that he and his wife had another child.

If the hypothesis was for a half sibling to the 11 known, that could be something -- that could be an affair or something. But a full sibling is hard to justify. If I eliminate this possibility, that just leaves the second hypothesis. I understand from my reading that any hypothesis is supposed to be possible, even if less likely.

So does my conclusion make sense? If we eliminate the unknown child, does that only leave the other hypothesis? Is there any possibility of any unidentified hypotheses?

Thank You for reading all of this.

ETA: The hypotheses changed when I realized I was using the older version: WATO Alpha. By changing to WATO Beta I now get 9 possible hypothesis.

To settle the first question I predict -- yes she is my full sister. We share 2,567cM of DNA and all our known DNA matches.

I have an unknown DNA match in my top 20 closest matches that I share 175cM which Ancestry indicates could be some type of second cousin.

However, my sister only shares about one fifth of this at 39cM with this match which Ancestry places two generations father back.

What, if anything, could possibly be determined about this match and were he might fit in our pedigree tree. He is a person of interest as it seems likely that he is related to us through one of our unknown great-great grandfathers. Both parents of our maternal grandmother were born to unwed, single mothers in the late 1890s on the West Virginia and Ohio border. After decades of genealogy, no one I know has been able to identify either man.

Unfortunately, few of our shared matches in common with this 175/39 cM matches have much in the way of developed trees. I have struggled to make much headway in figuring out how we could be related. It doesn't help that we appear to quickly end up with Irish immigrants in the mid to late 19th century with all the repeating and common names, both first and last.

To settle the first question I predict -- yes she is my full sister. We share 2,567cM of DNA and all our known DNA matches.

I have an unknown DNA match in my top 20 closest matches that I share 175cM which Ancestry indicates could be some type of second cousin.

However, my sister only shares about one fifth of this at 39cM with this match which Ancestry places two generations father back.

What, if anything, could possibly be determined about this match and were he might fit in our pedigree tree. He is a person of interest as it seems likely that he is related to us through one of our unknown great-great grandfathers. Both parents of our maternal grandmother were born to unwed, single mothers in the late 1890s on the West Virginia and Ohio border. After decades of genealogy, no one I know has been able to identify either man.

Unfortunately, few of our shared matches in common with this 175/39 cM matches have much in the way of developed trees. I have struggled to make much headway in figuring out how we could be related. It doesn't help that we appear to quickly end up with Irish immigrants in the mid to late 19th century with all the repeating and common names, both first and last.