Here's Week 4 of the playoff chances by record.

Quick refresher: Roster Audit's playoff and title odds use a lot of inputs, like team strength, league strength, injuries, and remaining schedule. One of those inputs is how teams with your record have finished in past seasons. That's the data below, going back to 2017.

The big takeaway: the hole gets deep fast. 0-3 teams made the playoffs about 1 in 7 times. At 0-4, it's about 1 in 15.

4-0:

• 93.5% of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
• 59.1% got a first-round bye
• 79.4% made the semifinals
• 41.7% made the championship game
• 21.3% won the title

3-1:

• 79.1% of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
• 31.2% got a first-round bye
• 59% made the semifinals
• 28.3% made the championship game
• 14.2% won the title

2-2:

• 53.7% of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
• 11.4% got a first-round bye
• 35.5% made the semifinals
• 15.5% made the championship game
• 7.7% won the title

1-3:

• 25.4% of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
• 2.5% got a first-round bye
• 15.4% made the semifinals
• 6.3% made the championship game
• 3.1% won the title

0-4:

• 6.8% of 0-4 teams made the playoffs
• 0.3% got a first-round bye
• 3.9% made the semifinals
• 1.5% made the championship game
• 0.7% won the title

My takeaways:

• 4-0 is close to a playoff lock, but not a title lock. Only about 1 in 15 miss the playoffs, but just 1 in 5 win it all. Four out of five undefeated teams still come up short.
• 2-2 is a coin flip. A little over half make the playoffs. Your next two games will tell you a lot more than your first four did.
• 1-3 is not dead. About 1 in 4 still make the playoffs. That's the same spot 0-2 teams were in two weeks ago.
• 0-4 is the real danger zone. Only about 1 in 15 make the playoffs, and fewer than 1 in 100 win the title. If your roster is old, it's time to take calls on your veterans while they still have value.

Like last week, this is only your record. It doesn't know how good your roster is or who's left on your schedule. A 1-3 team that lost three close games to the best teams in the league is in a very different spot than a 1-3 team that keeps getting blown out.

Roster Audit has all of this customized for your team and league (Sleeper only) in the League Hub: https://rosteraudit.com/league/ It factors in your roster, your league, injuries, remaining schedule and more.

I'll keep doing this each week as long as people find it useful. For people that are 2-2: are you buying, selling, or holding?

I recently added a start/sit tool to Roster Audit that bases its projections entirely on live betting markets. It takes current Vegas odds and player props, then just translates that data into expected fantasy points for your specific scoring format. No paywalls or sign-up required.

Here is a link to the tool: https://rosteraudit.com/projections/

You can look up any player and see incredibly detailed information about what Vegas expects from them this week. Things like:

• Expected points scored, floor, ceiling, how often a player scores above a specific number.
• How their lines have moved during the week leading up to the game.
• Over/Under on the game, spread, weather, implied team points scored.
• Target share, how a specific player does when another key player on their team is injured and doesn't play.
• How a player does as a favorite/underdog, home/road, dome/outdoor, cold/wind, primetime, etc.
• You can also see every prop line from the major sportsbooks like DraftKings, ESPN Bet, FanDuel, Fanatics, Pinnacle, Hard Rock, Bovada, PrizePicks, Underdog, and more

Here is an example of an individual player page for Week 1: https://rosteraudit.com/projections/justin-herbert/

If you host your league with Sleeper, you can sync and automatically get your league's scoring settings applied. You can also see your league's weekly matchup projections based on these odds and how they differ from the default Sleeper percentages. If you host anywhere else, you can simply input your scoring settings with a few clicks.

Maybe the cooler feature is that you can compare up to 3 players against each other and see how Vegas projects it out this week.

As an example, Josh Allen is undoubtedly the better fantasy asset than Justin Herbert. However, in Week 1 the betting/prop markets absolutely recommend playing Justin Herbert over him.

Comparison example: https://rosteraudit.com/projections/justin-herbert-vs-josh-allen/

Herbert has a higher projection, a higher floor, a higher ceiling, and a higher average week.

If you are going back and forth on a start/sit decision you can use this as another helpful data point.

Thank you so much to this community for helping grow Roster Audit and for supporting our mission of providing the best dynasty tools with no paywalls! If you find any errors, or things that need correction, pleaase let me know!

Vegas is usually sharper than the standard fantasy analyst (or our own gut feelings), so Roster Audit's newest start/sit tool skips the expert rankings entirely. It aggregates live sportsbook odds, DFS pricing, and prediction markets, then translates that data directly into expected fantasy points for your specific league’s scoring. It lets you make lineup decisions based on where the actual money is moving, and like everything on the site, there is no paywall or account required.

Here is a link to the tool: https://rosteraudit.com/projections/

Roster Audit was built primarily as a dynasty fantasy football toolkit (I am blown away by how it has been received in the dynasty community). This is the first feature that applies to redraft leagues so I know many of you here may not be super familiar with Roster Audit's mission:

Everything is always 100% free. I don't want your credit card number, I don't want your email address, and I don't have dreams of quitting my day job. I just build the tools I want (and my leaguemates ask for) and share them with the fantasy football community.

Ok, that is out of the way. Here's how the projections work:

You can look up any player and see incredibly detailed information about what Vegas expects from them this week. Things like:

• Expected points scored, floor, ceiling, how often a player scores above a specific number.
• How their lines have moved during the week leading up to the game.
• Over/Under on the game, spread, weather, implied team points scored.
• Target share, how a specific player does when another key player on their team is injured and doesn't play.
• How a player does as a favorite/underdog, home/road, dome/outdoor, cold/wind, primetime, etc.
• You can also see every prop line from the major sportsbooks like DraftKings, ESPN Bet, FanDuel, Fanatics, Pinnacle, Hard Rock, Bovada, PrizePicks, Underdog, and more (updated every 15 minutes).

Here is an example of an individual player page for Week 1: https://rosteraudit.com/projections/justin-herbert/

If you host your league with Sleeper, you can sync and automatically get your league's scoring settings applied. If you host anywhere else, you can simply input your scoring settings with a few clicks.

Maybe the cooler feature is that you can compare up to 3 players against each other and see how Vegas projects it out this week.

As an example, Josh Allen is undoubtedly the better fantasy asset than Justin Herbert. However, in Week 1 the betting/prop markets absolutely recommend playing Justin Herbert over him.

Comparison example: https://rosteraudit.com/projections/justin-herbert-vs-josh-allen/

Herbert has a higher projection, a higher floor, a higher ceiling, and a higher average week.

If you are going back and forth on a start/sit decision you can use this as another helpful data point.

All of that being said, I am 1 person building these tools for fun. If you find an error, have a suggestion, or if something isn't working quite right, please let me know and I'll get it fixed!

When Roster Audit first launched our dynasty trade grades system was only able to generate values for players as they currently stand in 2026 (we just didn't have player value data going back before that).

So lets say in 2021 you traded a 2022 2nd round pick for Tyreek Hill and Austin Ekeler. Our system was only able to give values to those players as their value stands today (almost worthless). So it would say you got fleeced.

In reality, that trade likely was an incredible win for you (at least at the time you made it). This was the #1 biggest request to fix from the community and I'm happy to say after weeks of working on it, we now have player values going back to the 2020 season.

You can now toggle between "Today" and "At Trade" to see both how fair the trade was when it was made and how it aged over time (today).

If you have never heard of Roster Audit, here are the basics:

-Launched out of frustration over leaguemates sending me trade calculator screenshots trying to justify why it is a fair deal for me to trade my 1st round pick for 2 3rds and a 4th.

The Roster Audit trade calculator was built for people who understand that 4 quarters does not equal a dollar in dynasty. I will not accept 6 3rd round picks for my best player and there should be a calculator that reflects that. Give the trade calculator a try and see if it aligns more with how you personally value things compared to the other trade calculators out there.

Always 100% free, no login, no paywall, no email address collection. I'm not trying to quit my day job, I just built what I think is a cool tool and want to share it. Just sync your sleeper league and use the dynasty tools I wanted for my own leagues.

This was built for the dynasty community so if you come across a bug, have a feature request, or are just curious how Roster Audit works, please leave a comment or message me!

This is a follow up post to my transfer portal scout post a few days ago. The main problem that has is it's useless once you reach year 4+ in your dynasty and all of the in-game players are fully replaced by auto-generated recruits.

So I went digging into the save files of 10 transfer portals to figure out how everything works for auto-generated recruits. I was really blown away by what I found. Here are the main takeaways:

A 2-star transfer is often better than a 5-star transfer, and it's not random.

When you open the transfer portal in dynasty, the game shows you every available player ranked 1 to ~2,000 by national rank, with a star rating next to each player. Look through that list and you'll see the 5-stars first, then the 4-stars, then the 3-stars, and so on.

Here's the crazy part: in all 10 of the portal classes I looked at, the very first 2-star in the national rankings (the highest-ranked 2-star in the list) was an 82 overall junior. Every single time. Meanwhile the last 5-star, the lowest-ranked player still holding a 5-star rating, was a freshman somewhere between 68 and 76 overall. The "worse" player by stars was about 10 points better, every cycle. Sounds impossible until you see how the rankings actually get built, which is takeaway 2.

National Rank is compiled using a hidden formula

Every transfer portal player has a national rank but the game never explains what it's based on. It's not overall rating, or the rankings would look completely different.

After digging through the save files, here's what it actually is: the game gives every player a score equal to his current overall rating + about 6 points for every season of eligibility he has left. The portal list is just that score, sorted from highest to lowest.

The star ratings come from the same score too, as simple cutoffs: score roughly 98+ and you're a 5-star, 94+ is a 4-star, 86+ is a 3-star, 80+ is a 2-star.

A freshman transfer has 3 seasons left to play, so he gets 18 points added on top of his actual overall. A junior has 1 season left, so he only gets 6. Run two players through it: an 86 overall junior scores 86+6 = 92. A 74 overall freshman scores 74+18 = 92. Identical score, so they sit right next to each other in the national rankings with the same star rating, even though one is twelve overall points better right now.

The stars aren't rating who a player is today, they are rating who the game predicts he'll become by his senior year. And that's also the answer to takeaway 1: the first 2-star is a junior being scored almost exclusively on his ratings today. The last 5-star is a freshman being scored mostly on prediction.

Junior star ratings are the only ones you can trust completely.

Across 3,500+ juniors in the 10 portal classes, these floors never broke a single time:

• A 2-star junior was never below 73 overall (typically around 77)
• A 3-star junior was never below 79 (typically around 83)
• A 4-star junior was never below 84 (typically around 86)

So when you see a junior with a 3-star rating at a position you need, you don't have to spend scouting hours on him or wonder what you're getting. He's a 79+ overall, probably an 83. Sign him and move on.

The one exception in the whole dataset: quarterbacks. Not a single 2-star junior QB ever reached 80 overall, so if you need an actual starting QB from the transfer portal, go after 3 stars or better.

The freshmen at the bottom of the 5 and 4 star lists are the worst deal in the portal.

In every class, there are a couple 5 star freshmen at the bottom of the 5 star list and a bunch of 4 star freshmen at the bottom of the 4 star list.

These are the worst deals in the portal. Think of it like grading in school technically an 80% is a B and an 89% is also a B. At the end of each star group (based on national rank) you get all of the people who barely cleared that "B" threshold.

On top of that, freshmen get that added huge +18 boost. Given their NIL expectations and how much competition there is to recruit them, you may be better off passing on them completely.

Anyways, this is getting pretty long and there are a ton of things to still cover like the exact spots you should be recruiting in the portal, how to quickly find speedy players, dev traits, etc. Also, some weird quirks like 89 overall kickers and punters at 1 star. You can read all of those at the full article below.

Link: https://collegefootball.gg/cfb-27-transfer-portal-the-hidden-formula-behind-every-star-rating/

Our CFB 27 playbook database has been fully rebuilt from the ground up! I wanted to share it with y'all because it can do some really cool things like:

1. If you have a favorite route, you can find every other play in the game with that exact route in it.
2. You can see exactly which players line up where by formation and see how packages change where your players line up.
3. See every motion and formation shift available by formation.
4. Advanced play filters that let you search by personnel, play type, concept, and so much more. As an example, If you want to find every play in the Alabama playbook that has a player in automotion, using 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB), and a receiver on a middle screen, you can do that.
5. Add your favorite plays and formations and get personalized playbook recommendations.

Like all of the tools on CollegeFootball.gg it is 100% free to use. Let me know your thoughts, if you notice any bugs or inaccuracies, and please share any ideas you have to make it better in the future!

Link: https://collegefootball.gg/playbooks/

The team grades (as well as other information like prestige, school demeanor, etc) for CFB 27 dynasty mode are now out in an easily sortable/searchable format: https://collegefootball.gg/team-grades/

The school prestige ratings are now out for CFB 27! You can quickly view, sort, and search through all 138 FBS teams to help you get an early start on team selection for your dynasty.

https://collegefootball.gg/prestige/