u/Hellstrike

The elephant in the room are the Others and the Long Night they bring. Unless it's a damp squib like in the show, that's an apocalyptic event that will likely reshape society and the political landscape considerably, but that's not on Renly. If anything, Renly was Westeros' best hope for the Long Night because his victory was all but guaranteed to be quick and decisive if not for the shadow baby, thus leaving Westeros united to face the Others, for what's that worth.

However, even ignoring that, Renly married Margaery Tyrell, thereby sealing a direct alliance with the Reach and several of its most important houses. That, paired with a politically smart marriage for the firstborn leaves very few people who can actually plot a "repeat" of Renly's succession. That powerblock would bring a lot of stability to the crown (assuming Renly doesn't repeat Robert's mistake and keeps Storms End as royal domain).

I've seen a lot of talk about dangerous precedent, but the matter of the fact is that the Seven Kingdoms were built on the principle of "might makes right" when Aegon forged the realm with dragon fire. Robert became King with his warhammer. And Renly rebelled despite a lack of a "younger brother" precedent, so it's not like Renly invented the concept. Maegor arguably pulled that stunt, but even he didn't invent the idea.

And there are a lot of historical precedent for states that had a succession hiccup which didn't matter in the long run. I feel like a lot of fans are grasping at condemnation because Renly dared to usurp Stannis' claim, and they like Stannis.

In the early game versions, you could manage your nobility's marriages and maintain a pool of people to draw from for cabinet, military and marriages. That got removed around 1.0.8 due to the micro needed and possible exploits. And for most playthroughs, that's not a problem.

However, for (pagan) Lithuania, this change is a crippling blow. You are the only Romuvan county in the world, and that comes with a lot of issues. Some of them are expected (poor economy, low population, slow research), but one of them breaks the game. An absolute shortage of marriagable women.

In the span of 15 years, I went from 30 possible heirs to 0, because every branch of the family died out, unable to find a wife. This is not helped by the fact that these branches were all ruling some vassal, and thus the player can't even get them to marry a lowborn. Inheritance is a procession of 55 year old guys, married with dead children and a wife beyond her child bearing years you can't even divorce. Dude stays in office for a few years before passing the throne to the next 50+ bloke. Nor are there nobles to marry your daughters to, and women can't marry lowborn. What's the point of giving you the option to switch to matrilinial succession when there's not one prospect for your daughter to actually marry?

There should not be a situation where there is not a single marriage prospect from your religion. Not one tribal chief or minor noble to marry into the royal line, not one daughter of some magnate who can continue your rule.

In the initial vision for ASOIAF, there was a timeskip intended that would age everyone by 5 years while they honed their craft (Jon at the Wall, Arya in Braavos, Dany in Slavers Bay). GRRM also wrote an infamous letter to a friend where he pitched the series as including a Jon/Arya/Tyrion love triangle and a forbidden romance that would "torment" Jon and Arya until his parentage was revealed.

Which pretty obviously means R+L=J.

However, once GRRM ditched the time skip, there were a lot of issues. Other people have written about those in great detail, but I think the obvious one is that Jon lusting after his sister would be taboo and add a lot of interpersonal and internal drama, but him lusting after an 11 year old girl wouldn't fly for a protagonist, nor be in character. But if Jon being a Targaryen isn't the golden bullet for the main emotional conflict, what's the point? He is not going to sit the Iron Throne, even with the North at his back and call, he doesn't have the support to push his claim against Dany's dragons or the armies of the Reach. Nor is there enough space to fit that arc, with only two books left, the Others to deal with, and Jon currently dead.

However, and this is where I am going on vibe rather than hard evidence, GRRM has set up the R+L foreshadowing, so what if he invented another character who could be a secret Targaryen and get some milage out of it, while Jon gets a parentage that would further his main arc (fighting for Dawn)? Ashara exists in book 1 already, and she clearly haunts the narrative, Dawn might even be the original Lightbringer and the Daynes are the only ones with the super special sword and office for its wielder. Meanwhile, fAegon has no foreshadowing in the first book.

So what if GRRM invented fAegon to get some payoff from R+L, when the original became pointless? And Jon gets the Dayne parentage as his role shifted beyond the wall, so that he can use Dawn/Lightbringer.

Am I cooking or are my thoughts fried?

There are a few ways this could go, from Ned keeping her hostage and setting her up with Robb at the end of the rebellion (claiming the Pact of Ice and Fire to keep her alive) to her choosing not to subjugate Westeros with dragonfire post Long Night because she has seen enough death. She could run away from the wedding to Drogo, she could be ousted from Slavers Bay, pick your poison.

There are a few Robb/Dany fics, but those tend to be based on the premise of putting Dany or both of them onto the Iron Throne. That is NOT what I am looking for. Same goes for fics where Dany comes to Jon in a position of power (show canon).

Basically, I am outlining a story that has Robert getting his groove back. One of the arcs will be about Robert bonding with Tommen, so outright exposing the incest isn't what I'm looking for.

I was thinking about Cersei, by accident, drinking the poison instead of Jon Arryn (thus preventing canon from happening). However, killing Joffrey off afterwards feels kinda cheap. It would be thematically fitting if he shot himself by accident with a crossbow, but it would also be a bit too convenient.

At the same time, if Cersei drinks the poison and Jon Arryn lives, this also removes the one incident that could be used to justify disinheriting Joffrey (him attacking Arya with live steel at the Ruby Ford).

Also, if Robert remarries, most of the brides would probably be invested in getting rid of Tommen and having him replaced by their own son. Although this could be helped if Robert only fathers daughters with his new wife.

There have been countless stories where Jon gets a lordship, but basically all of them completely underestimate the manpower and time requirements for (re)building in the medieval world. Raising a castle was the work of decades. The same goes for harbours and shipyards. Chatham Dockyard needed 12 years to launch a pinnace (while being far from complete), and that had an established town nearby, and experienced shipwrights to draw from. Even the modern recreations of medieval castles took years to build.

So basically, what could Jon be given that is actually liveable within a year or two at most? No Sea Dragon Point, no Moat Cailin, no Queenscrown, you get the picture.

Ned's stay in office is a tricky series of events. First, he only got the job offered because Lysa killed Jon Arryn on LF's orders. And he wanted to refuse the office until Cat got the coded letter, that implicated the Lannisters. At which point Ned took the post mostly to carry out a murder investigation. He did nothing to reform the small council, and his acts were centred around the tournament Robert wanted.

There is also the fact that Ned quit the office over the fate of Dany and the assassination Robert wanted. Although I feel like this is the one topic Ned could actually convince Robert on, if he was actually invested in being Hand.

And there is also the issue of the incest, which inevitably will be another roadblock. Stannis knows about it after all.

So how would you keep Ned in office for years? Killing LF early means Ned never gets the motivation to accept the job. Not killing him means that Ned is being set up against the Lannisters. And either way, Stannis knows about the incest.

Basically fics that diverge after Daemon gets exiled. Rhaenyra never marries into the Valaryon family, never has the Strong Boys, never marries Daemon. I don't particularly care who she ends up with, as long as it is different than canon, and not a Hightower, Valaryon, or Daemon.

With the ini Sale running in the Marketplace, I was wondering which of their airports actually run well without the options in the ini Launcher (disable interiors, clutter and so on). Because a lot of comments and reviews cirticise the performance of many of their hub airports, and I'd rather not waste money on a slideshow if their own version runs decently.

So unlike canon, Bran never climbs the broken tower, doesn't get yeeted out, no Catspaw with the dagger, Tyrion is not framed, the whole Stark family (other than Robb) goes south, Cat never arrests Tyrion.

I have outlined several alternate W5K campaigns, but this divergence is so large that I constantly run into "but wait, that would have changed as well". The things I am struggling to judge is:

0. How would the Ruby Ford go with Cat and the other Stark children there?

1. Would Ned still be insistent on digging into the Lannisters and Jon Arryn's death without Bran's fall and LF being able to frame Tyrion for the Catspaw or would he actually try to run the Seven Kingdoms. Clean up the Small Council, try to restructure the debt and so on.

2. Would Ned still go to Cersei if he can talk to Cat and sound out ideas.

3. Would Cersei's plot work (with Cat there, Sansa might not tip her off)?

4. Would the Starks even be in KL when Robert dies (assuming that doesn't get butterflied)? Because without Cat kidnapping Tyrion, Ned is not attacked, and he was on his way to leave the city.

5. Without the previous fighting in the Riverlands and the kidnapping, would Tywin even invade the Riverlands? Would he be as quick to mobilise without the preceding conflict?

6. For whom would Ned declare if he had left KL before Robert died? Remember, Stannis did not put forth his claim until months after Renly (and months after Robb was crowned), and he only made the incest allegations at that moment. Would Ned even believe it if he did not connect the dots himself?

7. With Cat leaving, would Jon feel the need to leave as well or would he stay at Robb's side (at least for a few more years)?

So yeah, what do you think would happen if Bran didn't fall and all children went south?