u/Life_Dot_7072

The good: Record quarter, $100B buyback, 2.5B devices, Services at 70% margins.

The question: No AI subscription yet. Siri update = late 2026.

Valuation: 36.6x vs MSFT 25x, META 22x. You're paying for AI hope.

WWDC June 8: Make or break. Need Gemini Siri or paid tier. UI fluff won't cut it.

Also: Tim Cook out Sept 1. New CEO Ternus = unknown variable.

TL;DR: Great business. Stock is pricing AI perfection. Execution or compression.

CPU: Vera = 200BTAM,200BTAM,20B revenue this year. AMD QCOM ARM in play.

Memory: HBM, DRAM, NAND become bottlenecks. MU etc.

Networking: $60B run rate. Spectrum-X #1. Switches, optics, DPUs.

Equipment: TSM, ASML, AMAT, KLAC = toll roads.

Next dates: June 1 (GTC Taipei), June 24 (QCOM Investor Day).

TL;DR: The AI trade is broadening. Find the next bottleneck, not just the GPU.

81.6 Brevenue vs 78.7B est. Q2 guide $91B. Net income +211%.

Still sold off. 4th straight "sell the news."

What's bigger: Vera CPU (20Bthisyear,20Bthisyear,200B TAM) + Networking ($60B run rate) + Rubin on track.

Nvidia is becoming the whole AI factory, not just GPUs.

TL;DR: Beat wasn't enough. Market wants perfection. But the stack story is real – just needs time.

81.6 Brevenue vs 78.7B est. Q2 guide $91B. Net income +211%.

Still sold off. 4th straight "sell the news."

What's bigger: Vera CPU (20Bthisyear,20Bthisyear,200B TAM) + Networking ($60B run rate) + Rubin on track.

Nvidia is becoming the whole AI factory, not just GPUs.

TL;DR: Beat wasn't enough. Market wants perfection. But the stack story is real – just needs time.

Models: New Gemini needs to connect video, reasoning, audio, web actions.

Hardware: TPU 8 goes from cloud leasing to direct sales. $46B backlog.

AVGO play: Core TPU partner. Any TPU hype = good for Broadcom.

Search monetization: Ads in AI Overviews, CPC impact – still unclear.

TL;DR: Full-stack advantage is real, but narrative has been stolen for 2 years. I/O = now or never moment.

Pros: Giant chip + on-chip SRAM = low latency.

Cons: 20x more expensive than Nvidia, fixed 44GB memory (only 128K context), huge cooling cost.

Clients: OpenAI (cancelable deal) + AWS.

Risk: CUDA who? Weak software.

TL;DR: Hype for now. Long-term? Unlikely to dethrone Nvidia.

Pros: Giant chip + on-chip SRAM = low latency.

Cons: 20x more expensive than Nvidia, fixed 44GB memory (only 128K context), huge cooling cost.

Clients: OpenAI (cancelable deal) + AWS.

Risk: CUDA who? Weak software.

TL;DR: Hype for now. Long-term? Unlikely to dethrone Nvidia.

1. Compute (the main engine)

• Revenue expected: $78.7B (+79% YoY)
• Jensen said Blackwell + Rubin could hit $1T by the end of 2027 (excl. networking).
• The growth curve is still steep, even at this size.

1. Networking (the second engine)

• Data Center networking revenue: 31.4BinFY26→est.31.4BinFY26→est.60.1B in FY27.
• AI factories need GPUs + NVLink, Ethernet, InfiniBand, and switches.
• More $ per data center, not just more chips.

1. Rubin transition (the next cycle)

• Blackwell Ultra: H2 2025 | Rubin: H2 2026 | Rubin Ultra: H2 2027.
• Investors want proof that Blackwell Ultra bridges demand smoothly into Rubin.
• Risk: supply (HBM, packaging, cooling, etc.) could push revenue out.

How far can it go further! Look into the trend market now, the AI will still be getting hotter and hottet. But the most worrying is the CPI, which might be getting higher and will cause interest rates to increase.

• Sold last $3.7B stake in Q1
• 64M shares in 2017 (4.4B)→4.4B)→27B today if held

Why it's not a signal:

The foundation needs liquidity (spending down by 2045). Not Bill Gates' "call."

The real story: Friday's rotation

• Software (IGV): +1.3%
• Semis (SMH): -3.8%

Hardware-led AI trade. Software lagged. Friday flipped that.

What's next:

Gates are selling ≠ bearishly. But the move into software might be the cleaner AI trade from here.

• Only vertically integrated optics player (chips → systems)
• NVIDIA owns 3% (bought at $6.01)
• AI-RAN: 10 operators (was 1 in Oct)

Valuation gap:

Peers trade at 60-295x P/E. NOK at 43x. 2028 EPS target ~$0.50 → $25 at 50x.

Options flow:

• Largest OI: June $15C (121k contracts)
• Ladder building: $17C → $23C across expiries
• GEX: $14 floor, $15 trigger

Bottom line:

Cheapest optics stock with the widest moat. Break $15 → rerating accelerates.

Where money is left (price up, flows down):

• Tech, Energy, Semis

Where money went (flows into weakness):

• Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate, Solar

Bottom line:

No panic. Just quiet rotation. Price follows flows, not headlines.

• Reports May 20. Stock +20% in 7 days → $6T market cap nearing.
• Q1 rev expected $79.1B (+80%), EPS $1.75
• 90% beat probability is already priced. Guidance is the real mover.
• Q2 guide ~$86.9B expected. >$89B = rally. <$86B = trouble.

Risks: China export controls ($5.5B H20 write-down), margin pressure (mid-74%), hyperscaler capex fatigue.

Bottom line: Beating isn't enough anymore. Forward guidance decides if $279 holds. 🚀

Why it matters:

600kW racks need 800V DC. 54V can't handle it. Lower current = less heat, less copper.

The money shift:

Power BOM +16%. But wide-bandgap + HV connectors go from 0% → 64% of power BOM.

What's next:

SiC names are still priced as EV plays. AI could be 50% of demand by 2030.

First phase: GPUs + HBM + optics. Second phase: power delivery. Watch for AI design win announcements.

Numbers:

• Rev $399M (+684%)
• ARR $1.92B (+674%)
• Adj EBITDA 129.5M(vs−129.5M(vs−53.7M)
• AI Cloud margin 45%

Key drivers:

• Demand still > supply. Pipeline up 3.5x QoQ.
• Moving from training → inference (acquired Tavily, Clarifai)
• Power capacity was raised to 4GW+ by 2026
• 6.3Bfinancing,6.3Bfinancing,9.3B cash

AI demand is not peaking. But stock = high expectations, high volatility now.

Watch GPU pricing + power rollout.

High IV favors spreads over naked calls.

Core thesis intact. Timing is everything. 🚀

Cisco Q3:

• Rev $15.8B (+12%)
• Networking orders +50%
• Hyperscaler AI orders $1.9B (vs $600M last year), FY26 target raised to $9B
• Acacia +200% YoY

Why it matters:

• Some Cisco AI switches run on Nvidia Spectrum-X silicon
• AI bottleneck shifting: compute → communication

For Nvidia (reports May 20):

• Networking was ~$11B in Q4
• Watch: NVLink, InfiniBand, Spectrum-X, scale-across

Cisco confirms AI networking demand is accelerating outside Nvidia. Expands Nvidia's TAM. Test: can Nvidia keep 75%+ margins while growing?

BNAI, USAR, WYFI, VOR quietly printing? That's the real flex.

UpN. Always closed some. But winners? Let them run.

Trump’s China visit delegation list just leaked. Guy’s bringing a who’s who of CEOs: Musk, Tim Cook, Boeing, Apple, BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, Qualcomm, and even Micron.

Basically, every big name except Jensen Huang (wasn’t invited, oddly). Feels less like politics and more like business, locking in supply chains and AI infrastructure. May 13–15. Kinda wild to see both sides still playing ball this openly.

Why buzz: OSS Capital predicts Anthropic's revenue could pass Alphabet by 2028 and double it by 2029.

ARR explosion:

• Jan 2025: $1B
• Dec 2025: $9B
• Apr 2026: $30B

How to play (pre-IPO):

• Partners: AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, NVDA
• Funds: VCX (~21%), AGIX (~3%), DXYZ, BSTZ
• AI infra winners: chips (NVDA/AMD/AVGO), memory (MU), networking, power/cooling (VRT)

Bottom line: Model winners unclear, but compute infra is the real bet.

+380% on NBIS.CostNBIS.Cost39 → Price $188.
Last time I checked, money doesn't grow on trees.
But apparently it grows on Nebius.