u/Maleficent-Wear-8839

Full table, all three charts, the top 20 players and the spreadsheet: https://goalsoon.com/serie-a-2627-season-so-far.html

The Bundesliga is scoring 3.85 goals a match after 3 rounds. I cut every league and season in our database to the same 27 matches to compare like with like: it is the highest of 236, higher than any start we hold in any division. The previous Bundesliga high at this depth was 3.67 in 2023/24.

It is volume, not finishing. 31.3 shots a match ranks 3 of 219, but 0.354 goals per shot on target ranks only 27 — close to ordinary.

Meanwhile Paderborn and Hamburger SV have not scored at all. That is less strange than it sounds: of 197 league-seasons we hold with 16 or more clubs, 30 had two or more clubs still goalless after 3 rounds, about one in 7. The 103 goalless starters in our archive went on to score 1.18 a match for the rest of the season, against 1.36 for everyone.

Bayern Munich have created the most chances (8.7 expected goals) and held the ball 71% of the time, and sit 4th. Over 180 Bundesliga club-seasons, possession after 3 rounds explains about 10% of the variance in points (r = 0.32).

On the goals-minus-expected column, Freiburg lead at +4.2. Measured on 723 club-seasons, only about 5% of a first-3-match gap carries into the rest of the year, so treat it as noise for now.

Igor Matanović leads the scorers with 3 for Freiburg.

Full table, the 20 best players, both charts and a spreadsheet: goalsoon.com/bundesliga-2627-season-so-far.html

We keep the last two completed rounds of eighteen European leagues in our own database, so we added them up: 350 matches, 1092 goals, 3.12 a game. The same round numbers in the five previous seasons ran 2.59 to 2.79. Allowing for how much seasons differ and for a 350-match sample, that is about a one-in-5,240 stretch. 14 of the 18 leagues are above their own figure for those same rounds.

It is volume, not finishing. Shots on target per club went 4.10 to 4.64 (t=3.9); goals per shot on target went 0.313 to 0.334, which is inside ordinary variation (t=1.6). At last season's conversion rate this season's shooting alone gives 2.90 a game against the 3.10 actually scored.

Matches with four or more goals: 41% against 27% a year ago, while goalless matches barely moved (20 against 22). Home wins are 38%, the lowest of the six seasons, but that one is only a one-in-6 reading, so we are not calling it anything yet.

League-by-league table in the image. Method, the season-by-season comparison and a spreadsheet: goalsoon.com/blog.html

One row per club, two rows per match. Each side is measured only in the role it plays this weekend, over last season: home clubs from their home matches, away clubs from their away matches. A club's overall record mixes two different teams. This does not.

How to read a row. The bracket is the tier the club played in last season, so promoted and relegated sides are marked. Everything after it is per game in that role: points, goals scored-conceded, its own shots, shots on target, the shots it allowed, possession, expected goals, then expected goals for minus against. That last column is coloured - green where a side created more than it gave up.

For scale, across five English tiers since 2016 clubs average 1.56 points a game at home and 1.19 away, over 896 home and 898 away club-seasons.

Northampton dropped from League One with 0.59 points a game away, 8.8 shots and 17.2 allowed, -1.37 on expected goals - the weakest travelling record in the division - and they go to Gillingham. Grimsby have the best home numbers here, 1.74 a game with 15.5 shots and 8.2 allowed. Chesterfield took 1.59 away, more than Rotherham managed at home in League One, and the two meet.

Rochdale and York City came up from the National League, a tier we hold no match statistics for, so their rows are dashes rather than zeros - a zero would read as the worst record in the division.

Method and the rest of the numbers: goalsoon.com/blog.html

One row per club, two rows per match. Each side is measured only in the role it plays this weekend, over last season: home clubs from their home matches, away clubs from their away matches. A club's overall record mixes two different teams. This does not.

How to read a row. The bracket is the tier the club played in last season, so promoted and relegated sides are marked. Everything after it is per game in that role: points, goals scored-conceded, its own shots, shots on target, the shots it allowed, possession, expected goals, then expected goals for minus against. That last column is coloured - green where a side created more than it gave up.

Sheffield Wednesday took 0.43 points a home game in the Championship last season - one win, seven draws, fifteen defeats, 14 goals against 44, 9.3 shots a game and 2.5 on target while allowing 14.9. Across five English tiers since 2016 that is the worst of 896 home club-seasons; the average is 1.56. They host Bromley, who took 1.57 away in League Two.

At the other end, Cambridge come up on 2.22 at home and +1.12 on expected goals. Peterborough travel to Blackpool having allowed 16.2 shots a game on the road.

Eleven matches, not twelve: Oxford against Reading is not in this round.

Method and the rest of the numbers: goalsoon.com/blog.html

League Two matchday 2 is done, so here is the whole round out of our own database: 12 matches, 29 goals, 2.42 a game against 2.55 across all 538 matches of 2025/26. 5 home wins, 4 draws, 3 away wins.

Shooting: 295 shots, 80 on target (27.1% against a long-run 32.8%), and 36.2% of those on target went in.

Measured against deserved goals (our own number: 0.325 goals per shot on target, fitted on last season), the round's biggest overperformance was Bristol Rovers (5-3 at home to Newport): 5 goals from 2.93. The biggest shortfall was Northampton (0-1): 0 from 1.95.

Highest player rating of the round: Fabrizio Cavegn (Bristol Rovers) at 9.5.

Full table in the image. Every match, goals by minute, cards, possession and player ratings on one page, plus the method: goalsoon.com/blog.html

Someone commented under our League One matchday-two piece that the home sides underperformed 16.70 xG because they were padding it with shots from range. We checked that on 17,217 matches from our own archive, measuring every club against its own average possession in its own league and season. Same club, same squad, different day.

On days a club holds 8+ points more of the ball than usual it scores 0.81 goals per expected goal. On days it holds 8+ less, 1.22. Five bands, one direction, t=32.

The share of shots taken from inside the box across those same bands moves 65.5% to 63.7%. That is the explanation everyone reaches for and it is the one thing that barely moves. Blocked shots go 24.8% to 29.2%, accuracy 38.0% to 31.3%, and goals per shot on target fall by a third. xG is measured before the ball is struck, so it never sees the bodies in the way.

First halves alone keep 94% of that gradient and matches level at half-time 75%, so it is not just teams chasing the game. Applied to that League One round it explains about 15% of the shortfall.

Table in the image. Method, the two controls and a spreadsheet: goalsoon.com/blog.html

One home win in twelve. Six draws. The home sides had 56% of the ball, 166 shots to 136 and 16.70 expected goals to 12.78 — and scored 10 to 15.

Across 207 full twelve-match rounds we hold in the Championship, League One and League Two since 2019/20, one home win or fewer has happened once before. In League One's own 95 rounds the fewest was two.

Stockport is the round in one match: 28 shots, 9 on target, 14 corners, 78% of the ball, 2.91 xG — beaten 1-2 at home. Burton went the other way, winning 2-1 at Leicester on 26% possession.

Table above is every club, sorted by goals minus expected goals. Dangerous attacks are our own live sampling. Full write-up: goalsoon.com/blog.html

A club's table position mixes two different teams, so I measured every side in this League Two round only in the role it plays: home clubs from their home matches last season, away clubs from their away matches.

The baseline is ours, from 896 club-seasons across the five English divisions since 2016: 1.56 points a game at home, 1.19 away.

Port Vale, down from League One, failed to score in 13 of their 23 home games. Only 4 of the 896 were that blank at home, about one in 224. Fleetwood are the opposite: they scored in 20 of 22 at home and kept two clean sheets. Northampton took 0.59 a game away, 2.4 shots on target against 17.2 for the other side, and they go to Crewe, who took 1.78 at home.

Rochdale and York City came up from the National League, which we do not hold, so their columns are empty.

No odds, no tips. Every match and every squad: https://goalsoon.com/blog.html

A club's table position mixes two different teams, so for this League One round I measured every side only in the role it actually plays: home clubs from their home matches last season, away clubs from their away matches. First table.

The baseline is our own, from 896 club-seasons across the five English divisions since 2016: 1.56 points a game at home, 1.19 away.

Two ends of it. Sheffield Wednesday took 0.43 points a game at home last season in the Championship, one win in 23, and failed to score in 12 of those games. That is the third worst home season of the 896. On Thursday they lost 0-1 at home to Bradford. Bromley go the other way: 14 wins and 8 draws at home in League Two, a whole season unbeaten there, which 12 of the 896 managed. Today is their first home game in this division.

The widest gap of the round is Stevenage, 2.00 at home with 12 clean sheets and 7.7 opposition shots a game, against Oxford, 0.78 away and 16.9 opposition shots.

Second table is the same question one level down, at player level. Kyle Wootton scored 13 at home for Stockport, who host a Blackpool side that took 0.73 a game away.

No odds, no tips, no projections. Every match and every squad here: https://goalsoon.com/blog.html

I measured how much last season and the opening round actually explain, inside each division separately (first table). In the Premier League last season explains 54 per cent of this one. In League Two it is 11, and Saturday itself is 3.6.

So the second table orders League Two's opening round by what the shots on target were worth instead of by the result. Deserved goals are shots on target times 0.313, fitted on 6,592 League Two club-matches; luck is the goal margin minus the deserved one.

Two that stand out. Gillingham had more shots on target than Walsall, eight to six, and lost 0-3 at home: 1 in 375 club-matches at that margin. Swindon took a point at Northampton without a single shot on target: 1 in 159.

There is no xG for League Two this round - the detailed feed has been frozen since the day before kick-off - so the chance number above is deliberately crude.

All 24 clubs and every match: https://goalsoon.com/blog.html