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u/Market_NorthStar

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▲ 14 r/SNDK_Stock

Share Buyback Mechanic- PT $2250 @ 9x FWD PE

$SNDK’s $15.5B remaining buyback could have a pretty meaningful impact.

SNDK currently has roughly 148M shares outstanding.
Say they execute the $15.5B buyback at an average price of $1,600/share:
- Buy back ~9.7M shares
- Share count drops from ~148M → 138M
- That’s roughly a 6.5% reduction in shares outstanding
Now look at JPMorgan.

JPM has a $2,250 target, based on roughly $250 CY2027 EPS × 9x P/E.
So they’re not exactly using a crazy AI multiple.

At $250 EPS:
9x = $2,250 ← JPM
10x = $2,500
12x = $3,000

And that’s what makes the buyback interesting.
If SNDK keeps generating strong FCF and continues retiring shares beyond this $15.5B authorization, EPS can keep growing even without the same level of earnings growth.

The real question isn’t whether SNDK deserves a 20–30x AI multiple.

It’s whether AI demand + long-term NAND contracts can make these earnings sustainable.

If they can, even 9–12x earnings can produce some pretty interesting numbers.

reddit.com
u/Market_NorthStar — 2 days ago
▲ 8 r/OracleStock

Key things to watch - Bullish IMO

ORCL at ~$151 — what I’m watching
Oracle’s $638B RPO shows AI/cloud demand is strong. The question now is whether they can turn that demand into profitable cash flow.

Key things I’m watching:

  1. More customer-funded CapEx
  2. Less dependence on OpenAI
  3. FCF improvement
  4. Debt/leverage peaking
  5. Completion of the $20B ATM

If these start moving in the right direction, I think ORCL becomes increasingly attractive. Demand is there — now it’s about execution and financing.

u/Market_NorthStar — 10 days ago
▲ 19 r/OracleStock

My ORCL DCF - PT $235

Executive Summary
Oracle’s sharp decline has shifted the market narrative from AI demand to execution risk. While the stock has fallen approximately 63% from its peak, Oracle has simultaneously grown its Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) to $638 billion, suggesting that customer demand has strengthened rather than weakened.
ORCL Bull Case Aug2026.pdf
This report argues that the key investment question is no longer whether enterprises want Oracle’s AI infrastructure—they have already committed significant contracted demand. Instead, the focus is on Oracle’s ability to execute: building data center capacity, financing unprecedented capital expenditures without excessive shareholder dilution, and demonstrating that AI cloud infrastructure can generate durable long-term profitability.
ORCL Bull Case Aug2026.pdf
Using assumptions that are intentionally more conservative than management’s long-term guidance—including a higher 9.5% WACC, lower 3.0% terminal growth, higher diluted share count, and zero normalized free cash flow in FY27—the valuation produces a conservative bull-case value of $235 per share, with an expected value of approximately $196 per share under probability-weighted scenarios.
At the same time, the report recognizes that Oracle’s valuation is highly sensitive to long-term assumptions. Approximately 85% of enterprise value is derived from terminal value, meaning the investment thesis ultimately depends on Oracle’s ability to sustain attractive economics well beyond the current backlog period. The greatest risks remain customer concentration, execution delays, funding costs, and the possibility that AI infrastructure earns structurally lower margins than traditional enterprise software.
Bottom line: Oracle appears to have largely solved the demand question. The investment thesis now rests on management’s ability to convert an unprecedented AI backlog into profitable, sustainable cash flows. If execution meets expectations, the current valuation may prove overly pessimistic. If execution falters, the market’s concerns around dilution, capital intensity, and long-term profitability will likely be validated.

u/Market_NorthStar — 18 days ago
▲ 37 r/BroadcomStock+3 crossposts

Big 4 CapEx Guidance

We are so back, let the bulls run!

All 4 hyperscaler increased or maintained Capex, MSFT is not reduced, it was lower due to accounting reclassification

But all the AI spending will boost semis

u/Market_NorthStar — 20 days ago