What is your level of confidence that Pete could win the 2028 democratic primary?
Logically, I feel like Pete is a pretty strong candidate. But because I feel so strongly that he is the right person for 2028, I often am very anxious that he might choose not to run or could lose the primary.
Yes, there are other great democrats, but in my view (and, I don't want to conjecture, but I would assume the view of most people on this subreddit) Pete is uniquely qualified.
So, I keep breaking it down and come to the same conclusion—Pete Buttigieg is an exceptionally strong candidate. But that isn't enough for my brain. Political analysts generally disagree, I am of course biased, and I often doubt that I actually know what I'm talking about.
Still, a few things I've noticed:
1: Pete Buttigieg support and education level grow together. While the 2 year degree / some college / vocational training is a little less consistent with this, and can sometimes be a dip compared to highschool, 4 year degrees and postgraduate/advanced degrees are pretty strong for Pete. I don't know why this is, but I am glad for it.
2: Progressives do not hate Pete Buttigieg as much as online makes it seem. This might be wrong, but it does seem that real life progressives and online progressives are not the same. In a Vermont poll, Pete Buttigieg had 46% favorability, 44% neutral among democratic socialists, 73% favorability among progressives, 70% favorability among liberals, 76% among moderates. I've seen this beyond that one Vermont poll.
3: Young voters do not hate Pete Buttigieg as much as online makes it seem. Again, maybe I'm wrong. I've seen the same situation with progressives as youth. Yes, AOC does better among youth and the previously mentioned progressives, of course she does. I'm just trying to point out that many young progressive voters support Pete in polls, and disliking him appears to be a minority.
4: Rural and suburban voters appear to like Pete Buttigieg. His success in 2020 in Iowa and New Hampshire, entrance/exit polls from said states in 2020, and the polling we have now give me hope.
5: Pete, while he will not do particularly well among black voters, is not going to crash and burn from black voters. I remember a particular poll that showed him getting not much black support, but when the poll asked if voters would be unhappy with a particular candidate nominated he got I think the lowest number. There are also many polls that show him doing solid with them, primarily state polls though rather than national polls, so I wonder why that is.
I think these 5 points are critical (though #1, #4, and #5 are likely the most important).
Pete Buttigieg doing well among educated voters gives him a strong footing among New England and the Northeast, Colorado, the West Coast, and in general the democratic primary as a whole.
Rural voters matter across the West, Midwest, and South.
Suburban voters matter hugely across most states.
If Pete at least wins delegates in South Carolina that could be huge in terms of media and being able to at least hold some ground with black votes will mean that while Pete isn't winning from black voters, he won't lose from them.
But what are your thoughts?
