
What if the ADVANCED ECONOMIES don’t correct, what’s the backup plan ?
RBI supremo is saying that if we see a correction in AI-related valuations in advanced economies, some of that capital could potentially flow into India.
Governor of central bank is saying our growth/vikash is waiting for our competitors to slow down/correct/bankrupt. Others must fail for us to succeed, this is our motto.
But even assuming that happens, what exactly is the transmission mechanism?
People sell AI-led stocks in the US and then… buy Campa Cola, Bombay Creamery and HUL soaps?
Also, calling this simply an “AI correction” oversimplifies the US market. Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet are enormous revenue-generating businesses. They are investing heavily in AI, as should any IT(bar Indian IT) but they aren’t AI companies.
If their valuations correct, the money doesn’t automatically become consumption in India, it will only make their companies more attractive.
And if the correction is actually caused by a broader global risk-off event, India could just as easily face capital outflows.
Do we even have a backup plan if they don’t? Why is he not talking about the excessive taxation ?