Basically it plays closely to Dark Phoenix, so 2x legs should at least be on the table for ~75M finish floor, but we are about to see how Minions will affect it and second weekend will play.
~30% drop from Saturday, rather than the earlier reports, which were 9.1M (15%).
Sources: Barry on BOT / UKBoxOffice on BOT
Looks like even the leading market overseas won't be there (at least for the opening weekend) for Supergirl as some of the earlier data pointed at ~£5.5 ceiling. It looks to open still in range, just on the lower end.
As I pointed out yesterday for the OS number, if UK slips (below £3.6-3.7), no market will have over $5M opening which now seems more probable.
Well... thing indeed look grim as previously range was $30-$45M, Now, only 1 market has a chance to open above $5M USD and the final total gross, maybe 3 or 4 markets had chance to finish above $5M USD - UK, Mexico, Australia, and maybe Brazil & France (that one we will see as it opens next week, but if other European markets are anything to go by, $3-$4M final will be more in line).
On lower end global OW look to be on par with Shazam 2! ($65M Global OW / $134M WW Finish) and on the high end Morbius ($84M Global OW / $167M WW Finish). If some utter total rejection/collapse happens, sub $100M is not out of the realm of possibility, but I would not go that far. Shazam 2! numbers seams more in line here.
And with that I hope you had fun in the last few days. Will go see the movie in a few hours :D. Maybe will do something like this for the 2nd weekend ;)
Source: InsideKino
| Film | Opening weekend | Cume by Sunday | Final | Legs | Supergirl vs OW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supergirl | 52.5k | 60.0k | 175k projected | 3.33x | x |
| Blue Beetle | 34.5k | 34.5k | ~125k | ~3.6x | +52% |
| Shazam 2 | 91.0k | 95.3k | 253.4k | 2.79x | -42% |
| The Flash | 88.2k | 105.4k | 290.2k | 3.29x | -40% |
| Morbius | 168.2k | 168.2k | ~415k | ~2.47x | -69% |
| The Marvels | 170.4k | 193.6k | 417.6k | 2.45x | -69% |
| Joker: Folie à Deux | 421.9k | 421.9k | 768.1k | 1.82x | -88% |
Source: CINETEL
| Movie | Opening day | Opening weekend | Total | Legs | Supergirl OD vs comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supergirl | €158k / ~21k adm. | x | x | x | x |
| Blue Beetle | €142.8k / 19.8k adm. | ~€510k | €1.04M / 146.7k adm. | 2.05x | +11% above Blue Beetle |
| Shazam 2 | €84.4k / 12.5k adm. | €836k | €1.66M / 242.4k adm. | 1.98x | +87% above Shazam 2 |
| The Marvels | €280.7k / 38.2k adm. | €1.59M Thu-Sun / €1.87M incl. Wed | €3.30M / 447.2k adm. | 2.08x vs Thu-Sun | 44% below The Marvels |
| Morbius | €321.9k / 46.5k adm. | €1.60M / 218.6k adm. | €3.04M / 424.4k adm. | 1.90x | 51% below Morbius |
| The Flash | €385.1k / 108.5k adm. | €1.23M / 221.6k adm. | €2.67M / 425.1k adm. | 2.18x | 59% below The Flash |
Source: Carlangonz on BOT
$50M LC roughly translates to ~2.85M USD, below The Marvels ($2.97M) and Morbius ($3.21M) and half of Joker 2 (5.5M), but Joker also got attrocious legs
| Movie | Mexico OW [USD] | Mexico total gross [USD] | Supergirl $2.85M vs OW [USD] | Supergirl as % of OW [USD] | Mexico legs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Superman | $7.88M | $23.33M | -$5.03M | 36.2% | 2.96x |
| Joker: Folie à Deux | $5.50M | $7.98M | -$2.65M | 51.9% | 1.45x |
| Morbius | $3.21M | $8.07M | -$0.36M | 88.9% | 2.52x |
| The Marvels | $2.98M | $6.30M | -$0.13M | 95.8% | 2.12x |
| Shazam! Fury of the Gods | $1.86M | $3.70M | +$0.99M | 153.2% | 1.99x |
Used 3 comps: The Marvels as direct genre comparison, Furiosa as more mid-point comparison and Haunted Mansion - another Disney bomb which grossed ~130M WW on a budget as high as 150M
Also ran against all comps simple X/X rule in 4 cases for both Ancillaries and Expenses. Variety reported $170M budget and I'm slapping $100M for marketing (could be higher or lower), but looks to fit the average for this type of movie. the 50/100 rule basicaly runs against Deadline breakdowns and uses either 50/50 Ancillaries/Expenses, 100/100, or a mix of 50/100 & 100/50
At the end, those X/X weights are not exact and could differentiate in final reports, because for example residuals for The Marvels might been higher because Sam Jackson and Brie Larson are more expensive than Milly and Co. However if for some reason Gunn overspent here a possibility of -$200M is a reality
Theatrical weights (revenue) are also based on the % based on deadline (basically what Deadline pointed as theatrical revenue %-wise of the total theatrical gross.
In any case, it looks like Supergirl will wipe the $125M+ profit her cousin generated last summer.
All the comps basically grossed around 75-85% of their entire gross in 2 weeks. Outside of Joker 2, all the others had ~$12-$15M left in the domestic tank.
Supergirl will need on high end opening ($43M) at the very least ~2.33x legs, which neither of the comps had to reach $100M domestic. On the lower end ($34M), it would require almost 3x and with how much it collapsed on final days, this is out of the question.
To beat The Marvels, it will need Dark Phoenix legs and opening on the high end, but that is only if it somehow survives that long before Odyssey and Spider-Man kill it (Maybe Minions next week will already do the killing).
Opening on the lower end and collapsing like Joker 2, will lead to domestic gross below Shazam 2 and Joker 2 totals, but also below The Flash opening weekend alone
https://cgv.co.kr/cnm/cgvChart/movieChart/30001114
Comps are the current CVG scores as those dropped from their initial scores, so Supergirl might come down to The Marvels level.
Supergirl seems to be in heading in an exclusive club of Comic Book movies over 100M budget, but below 100M global opening. Neither of those we profitable. It's very pessimistic, but if Supergirl opens Internationally that low, there is strong chance Supergirl total grosses on most countries to be below Superman opening weekend in those, which means below 100M OS gross.
| Film | Global OW | Final WW | Global legs | Legs >2x | Legs >2.5x | Legs >3x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraven the Hunter | ~$26.0M | ~$62.0M | 2.38x | ✅ | ❌ | ❌ |
| Blue Beetle | ~$43.4M | ~$130.8M | 3.01x | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| Fantastic Four 2015 | ~$58.8M | ~$167.9M | 2.86x | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| Shazam! Fury of the Gods | ~$65.5M | ~$134.1M | 2.05x | ✅ | ❌ | ❌ |
| Green Lantern | ~$69.6M* | ~$237.2M | 3.41x | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| The Suicide Squad | ~$72.2M | ~$168.7M | 2.34x | ✅ | ❌ | ❌ |
| Watchmen | ~$83.2M | ~$185.4M | 2.23x | ✅ | ❌ | ❌ |
Sub $100M is possible, but needs total collapse and rejection, which even The Marvels, The Flash and Joker 2 did not face (in a sense to do below $100M OS). Social media so far is possitive, so it might avoid that.
We should get better grip this week how things will be moving as more reports come in. Legs will be interesting here as summer should provide a bit more than for example The Marvels in November, but legs above 2.5x might be too much to reach. 2-2.2x should give it the "comfortable" over $100M. but not that much over.
Opening below $40M-$45M will make $100M OS far harder. Any CBM in recent years which has below 100M OS gross was also below 200M world wide. Only few selected had over 100M OS, but still failed to clear 200M WW because they outright collapsed in the domestic market.
It will be a bomb, we just don't know how much of a bomb it will be. I can see $300M being out of the question and $250M being the ceiling at its best outcome. Sub $200M will be historic.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Obsession worldwide gross | $224.80M |
| Sundance 2020–2025 annual-subtotal sum | $203.88M |
| Difference in Obsession’s favor | +$20.91M |
| Obsession vs Sundance total | 1.10× |
| Year | # | Film | Gross / proxy value | Buyer / distributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1 | The 40-Year-Old Version | $8,000,000 | Netflix |
| 2020 | 2 | Blast Beat | N/A | Vertical / Sony |
| 2020 | 3 | Charm City Kings | N/A | SPC → HBO Max |
| 2020 | 4 | Dinner in America | $22,364 | Atlas |
| 2020 | 5 | The Evening Hour | N/A | Strand |
| 2020 | 6 | Farewell Amor | $4,689 | IFC |
| 2020 | 7 | Minari | $15,300,000 | A24 |
| 2020 | 8 | Miss Juneteenth | $38,355 | Vertical |
| 2020 | 9 | Never Rarely Sometimes Always | $891,527 | Focus |
| 2020 | 10 | Nine Days | $1,004,748 | SPC |
| 2020 | 11 | Palm Springs | $19,012,871 | Neon / Hulu |
| 2020 | 12 | Save Yourselves! | $301,162 | Bleecker St |
| 2020 | 13 | Shirley | $309,641 | Neon |
| 2020 | 14 | Sylvie’s Love | $9,000,000 | Amazon |
| 2020 | 15 | Wander Darkly | N/A | Lionsgate |
| 2020 | 16 | Zola | $4,998,097 | A24 |
| 2020 subtotal | $58,883,454 | |||
| 2021 | 1 | CODA | $26,905,058 | Apple |
| 2021 | 2 | I Was a Simple Man | N/A | Strand |
| 2021 | 3 | Jockey | $121,024 | SPC |
| 2021 | 4 | John and the Hole | $25,386 | IFC |
| 2021 | 5 | Mayday | $4,382 | Magnolia |
| 2021 | 6 | On the Count of Three | $62,155 | Annapurna / UA |
| 2021 | 7 | Passing | $15,000,000 | Netflix |
| 2021 | 8 | Superior | $564 | Factory 25 |
| 2021 | 9 | Together Together | $1,436,324 | Bleecker St |
| 2021 | 10 | Wild Indian | $121,010 | Vertical |
| 2021 subtotal | $43,675,903 | |||
| 2022 | 1 | Alice | $373,043 | Roadside / Vertical |
| 2022 | 2 | Breaking | $2,806,359 | Bleecker |
| 2022 | 3 | Cha Cha Real Smooth | $15,000,000 | Apple |
| 2022 | 4 | Dual | $299,698 | RLJE |
| 2022 | 5 | Emergency | N/A | Amazon |
| 2022 | 6 | I’ll Be Your Mirror | N/A | — |
| 2022 | 7 | Master | N/A | Amazon |
| 2022 | 8 | Nanny | $7,000,000 | Amazon / Blumhouse |
| 2022 | 9 | Palm Trees and Power Lines | $1,239 | MUBI |
| 2022 | 10 | Watcher | $3,621,656 | IFC / Shudder |
| 2022 subtotal | $29,101,995 | |||
| 2023 | 1 | The Accidental Getaway Driver | $63,831 | Utopia |
| 2023 | 2 | All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt | $52,084 | A24 |
| 2023 | 3 | Fair Play | $20,000,000 | Netflix |
| 2023 | 4 | Fancy Dance | $17,204 | Apple |
| 2023 | 5 | Magazine Dreams | $1,494,950 | Searchlight → Briarcliff |
| 2023 | 6 | Mutt | $10,913 | Strand |
| 2023 | 7 | The Persian Version | $607,092 | SPC |
| 2023 | 8 | Shortcomings | $675,257 | SPC |
| 2023 | 9 | Sometimes I Think About Dying | $563,487 | Oscilloscope |
| 2023 | 10 | The Starling Girl | $161,290 | Bleecker St |
| 2023 | 11 | Theater Camp | $4,781,316 | Searchlight |
| 2023 | 12 | A Thousand and One | $4,463,582 | Focus |
| 2023 subtotal | $32,891,006 | |||
| 2024 | 1 | Between the Temples | $2,120,748 | SPC |
| 2024 | 2 | Didi (弟弟) | $5,156,116 | Focus |
| 2024 | 3 | Exhibiting Forgiveness | $506,520 | Roadside |
| 2024 | 4 | Good One | $645,922 | Metrograph |
| 2024 | 5 | In the Summers | $90,443 | ltd |
| 2024 | 6 | Love Me | $350,841 | Bleecker St |
| 2024 | 7 | Ponyboi | $29,694 | ltd |
| 2024 | 8 | A Real Pain | $24,856,027 | Searchlight |
| 2024 | 9 | Stress Positions | $105,995 | Neon |
| 2024 | 10 | Suncoast | N/A | Searchlight / Hulu |
| 2024 subtotal | $33,862,306 | |||
| 2025 | 1 | Atropia | $64,144 | Vertical |
| 2025 | 2 | Bubble & Squeak | N/A | — |
| 2025 | 3 | Bunnylovr | N/A | Utopia |
| 2025 | 4 | Love, Brooklyn | $254,844 | Greenwich |
| 2025 | 5 | Omaha | $97,513 | Greenwich |
| 2025 | 6 | Plainclothes | $301,758 | Magnolia |
| 2025 | 7 | Ricky | $41,513 | — |
| 2025 | 8 | Sorry, Baby | $3,300,000 | A24 |
| 2025 | 9 | Sunfish (& Other Stories on Green Lake) | N/A | — |
| 2025 | 10 | Twinless | $1,407,929 | Roadside / Lionsgate / Sony |
| 2025 subtotal | $5,467,701 |
You can ignore lowest end results as there are the more for fun and just as some non-sense base, albeit weak reception paired with lower opening could indeed lead to sub 100M final, but that is worst case.
OS numbers also might seem a bit ridiculous with that 65/35 split, but Superman was close to 60/40 split and we will have on the way heavy OS contenders in the face of Toy Story, Minions and later Odessey + a whole month of the biggest sports even on the planet, so Supergirl doing even more heavily domestically than Superman is not out of reason - I guess LATAM will be biggest market for Supergirl, while Europe will underperform and Asia might be non-existant. Who knows... Lobo walkups might happen.
A comparison not included here, but could be relevant is Mando - 98M 4-Day weekend and legs so weak it will finish below 200M (might not reach 190M as well)
At the end, a fresh like reception paired with summer legs benefits might not be enough to overcome general low interest in non-event CBM movies, plus heavy competition and World Cup.
