
The C-3 wave is probably peaking
Drake equation-like estimate of USA C-3 totals
I've seen increasing despair about the growing backlog and wait times for C-3 citizenship by descent applications in various threads. I also think there is growing nervousness about how the Canadian public will feel about a wave of dual citizens moving in.
I did some math months ago about this and wanted to share it. TLDR: the surge of applications is probably peaking now. Applicants have to be eligible, to know about the program, and to choose to see it through. When you think about what percentage of people in the USA tick all those boxes, you get a number not too much bigger than the current application backlog of ~120,000. (Yes, that 120,000 includes non-US applicants, but it also does not include applicants who have already been processed.)
My guess is that the backlog of archival requests is steadily approaching completion, and that there will be another 1-2 months of a rising count at IRCC followed by stabilization at a peak under 200,000. Maybe you think my guesses above are wrong -- feel free to do your own estimates (and to tell me how wrong you think I am!).