The C-3 wave is probably peaking

The C-3 wave is probably peaking

Drake equation-like estimate of USA C-3 totals

I've seen increasing despair about the growing backlog and wait times for C-3 citizenship by descent applications in various threads. I also think there is growing nervousness about how the Canadian public will feel about a wave of dual citizens moving in.

I did some math months ago about this and wanted to share it. TLDR: the surge of applications is probably peaking now. Applicants have to be eligible, to know about the program, and to choose to see it through. When you think about what percentage of people in the USA tick all those boxes, you get a number not too much bigger than the current application backlog of ~120,000. (Yes, that 120,000 includes non-US applicants, but it also does not include applicants who have already been processed.)

My guess is that the backlog of archival requests is steadily approaching completion, and that there will be another 1-2 months of a rising count at IRCC followed by stabilization at a peak under 200,000. Maybe you think my guesses above are wrong -- feel free to do your own estimates (and to tell me how wrong you think I am!).

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u/Nice-Beginning3069 — 3 days ago

Futon on carpet?

I've been using a camping pad for floor sleeping and it clearly works for me; I'm ready for a real futon but could use some advice that I haven't been able to find by searching this sub...

  1. The bedroom has a thin carpet. Is a tatami mat still a good idea or would that be too soft between carpet at the futon?

  2. What have you used for the equivalent of a bedside table? Is there any kind of little floor sleeping platform to put items on?

  3. How much room do the futons take up while they are rolled during the day?

Thank you if you can answer any of these!

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u/Nice-Beginning3069 — 12 days ago

If you check the actual prices, similar configs are about the same, give or take

Framework 13 pro, Ultra 5, 32GB RAM, 1TB SSD, default ports, charger: $1901

Apple 14-inch MacBook Pro, nano texture display, M5, 32GB RAM, 1TB SSD: $2134

Obviously there are differences depending on which chips you think are comparable, how much to value a touch screen, whether you get an education discount, whether you want a Windows license, etc but Framework is in the mix

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u/Nice-Beginning3069 — 4 months ago