u/Odd_Veterinarian4381

Friday was a bloodbath across the board, DAX -2%, CAC -1.6%, Nikkei -2%. Then Microsoft goes and finishes +3.05% at $421.92 like nothing happened.

Meanwhile it's still 24% below its all-time high of $555. That gap has been bugging me for a while. The stock had a rough April, touched $356 in the lows, and has been slowly recovering since. But Friday felt different — while everyone else was selling, MSFT was buying.

I ran the numbers through my model out of curiosity. It gives MSFT a 94/100 quality score, the highest I've seen in a while. For context, the historical average is around 76, so this is a significant improvement. All the pillars are strong: returns at 100, balance sheet at 90, growth at 100, margins at 81. The only thing holding it back from a perfect score is that margins aren't as crazy as some software peers, but 81 is still solid.

Here's what I'm trying to figure out: is this Friday's move a signal that institutions are rotating back into quality tech? Or is it just a blip in a market that's otherwise bearish on big tech?

The 3-month range tells an interesting story: $356 low to $433 high. We're at $422 now, near the top of that range but still far from the $555 ATH. If MSFT breaks above $433, that's a new 3-month high, and the next resistance would be somewhere around $460-470 from early February.

The bull case writes itself: Azure keeps growing, AI Copilot is driving enterprise adoption, the balance sheet is a fortress. The bear case is just... valuation? At 30x earnings it's not cheap, but it's not 2021-level crazy either.

Or am I being far too optimistic and overlooking a clear risk? What do you all think? Is Microsoft the safe haven trade for the second half of 2026, or is there still a downside?

I've been watching Airbus for a few weeks now and I can't quite figure out what to make of it.

The stock peaked around €200 in early March and has been sliding ever since. Friday it closed at €167.68, another -2.93% on an already bad day for European markets. That's 16% off the 3-month high and getting uncomfortably close to the 52-week low of €154.

What's weird is that nothing obviously catastrophic has happened to the business. Yes, supply chain issues are still a thing in aerospace. Yes, there are ongoing tensions with China that could affect deliveries. But these aren't new problems, they've been priced in for months.

The stock had a nice run from €154 (late March low) to €188 in early May, that was a 22% bounce in about 5 weeks. But since then it's given almost all of it back. For a company with a backlog of over 8,000 aircraft and production ramping up, this feels... excessive?

Or maybe I'm the one ignoring a red flag. The defense side of the business has been a tailwind given European rearmament, but margins in commercial aerospace are still recovering from the supply chain squeeze. Maybe the market is pricing in slower delivery growth for 2026?

At €167 we're at levels last seen during the March selloff. If it breaks €160 decisively, the next support is probably the 52-week low at €154. Below that... who knows.

I'm curious what other people see here. Is this a value trap where the market knows something we don't about delivery targets? Or is this the kind of pullback in a quality European industrial that you look back on in 12 months and wish you'd bought?

What's your take on Airbus at these levels?

Moin zusammen,

nachdem wir letzte Woche über SAP gesprochen haben, schaue ich mir heute BMW an. Der Kurs ist bei €75 angekommen — praktisch am 52-Wochen-Tief und fast 20% unter dem Jahreshöchststand bei €93.

Die Automobilbranche bekommt gerade von allen Seiten Gegenwind. China-Zölle, die langsame EV-Wende in Europa, und BMW hat auch noch eine hohe China-Exposure. Die Frage ist: ist das schon eingepreist oder kommt noch mehr?

Auf der einen Seite: BMW ist kein Startup. Solide Bilanz, starke Marke, und die Fahrzeuge verkaufen sich immer noch gut. Der Cashflow ist positiv, die Dividendenrendite wird interessant bei diesem Kursniveau.

Auf der anderen Seite: die Margen der Autobauer stehen unter Druck. Tesla und die Chinesen drücken auf den Markt, und BMW muss gleichzeitig in Verbrenner, E-Antrieb und Software investieren. Drei Fronten gleichzeitig.

Ich überlege einzusteigen, aber die Unsicherheit ist groß. Ist das eine zyklische Talsohle, oder verändert sich die Automobilbranche gerade strukturell zum Nachteil der deutschen Hersteller?

Wartet ihr auf einen Dip unter €70, oder seid ihr der Meinung, dass BMW bei diesen Preisen schon ein Schnäppchen ist?

So Jensen Huang was part of Trump's China delegation this week, and NVDA just hit a new record at $235. Almost 50% up from the October lows around $158.

I've been trying to wrap my head around the valuation here. The AI demand story is intact — hyperscalers are still throwing money at data centers like there's no tomorrow. NVDA is still the default GPU supplier. The China trade talks could open up more semi exports too, which would be a direct tailwind.

But at the same time — the stock is at its highest point ever. Competition is getting real. AMD is catching up on specs, the hyperscalers are all building their own silicon, and Cerebras just IPO'd with a bang (+68% on day one). Not to mention export restrictions to China are still a wildcard regardless of what Trump and Xi discuss.

I look at the revenue growth and it's obviously stellar. But how much of that is already in the price? Can NVDA really keep growing at these rates when the comps get harder every quarter?

Maybe I'm being too cautious and this is one of those situations where the best companies keep surprising to the upside. Or maybe the easy money has been made.

What's your process for valuing a stock like NVDA that's both high-growth and at ATHs? Do you wait for a pullback or just accept that great companies rarely look cheap?

https://preview.redd.it/ijqc0xcf8v0h1.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=95bca986c5b7e52938c38ea168a586b005a0a496

Buenas,

llevo siguiendo ACS desde que estaba por debajo de 100€ y me alegra ver que el mercado por fin le está dando algo de cariño. +34% en tres meses no está mal para una constructora, digamos que no es precisamente Nvidia.

La historia la conoce casi todo el que sigue el IBEX: ACS es un mastodonte de la construcción y servicios, con presencia global via Hochtief, Cimic y Dragados. La cartera de pedidos es brutal, sobre todo en Estados Unidos y Australia. Y la parte de concesiones (Abertis, Iridium) genera una pasta en cash flows recurrentes que muchos infravaloran.

Lo que me mola del valor es que incluso después de esta subida, sigue cotizando a múltiplos bastante razonables para el tamaño y diversificación que tiene. El margen de mejora real está en que el mercado empiece a descontar mejor esos ingresos recurrentes de concesiones.

Ahora, lo malo: la exposición política en LatAm siempre es una incógnita, los chanchullos de la construcción en España tampoco ayudan, y la deuda neta del grupo no es pequeña. Pero para mí, ACS es de las españolas más sólidas del IBEX. Poco glamour, mucha tela.

Lleva unos días corrigiendo (casi -5% en la semana). ¿Será un buen punto de entrada o la subida ya dio lo que tenía que dar?

I started digging into UnitedHealth when everyone was panicking and it hit $259 earlier this year. The news cycle was brutal, regulatory uncertainty, the Change Healthcare cyberattack mess, political noise around Medicare Advantage. Felt like the perfect storm.

But here's what I kept coming back to: UNH has been through worse. The business model didn't break. They're still the biggest health insurer in the US by a mile, Optum is an absolute cash cow that keeps growing, and the free cash flow generation is ridiculous.

From $259 to $396 is a 53% bounce. That's not just a recovery, that's the market admitting it overreacted. The cyberattack turned out to be a one-off cost hit, not a structural problem. The regulatory fears are still there but haven't materialized into anything concrete.

What makes UNH interesting to me as a value play right now: even after this run, you're paying a reasonable multiple for a business that compounds at 10-15% annually. The dividend has been growing for over a decade. The buyback is active. And healthcare spending isn't exactly going to go down as the population ages.

The bear case is real, political risk around Medicare, potential rate squeeze, and the fact that a lot of the easy money has already been made. But the question is whether UNH at 18-20x earnings is "value" or just "fair."

I'm holding. Curious what others think — is there still upside from here, or is this a 10-bagger decade behind us?

Hi everyone,

When you first start investing, it feels like everyone is speaking a different language. You hear "P/E ratios," "DCF," and "WACC," and it’s easy to feel like you’re just guessing.

I’m a researcher in bioinformatics, and I was tired of seeing people (including my friends) lose money because they followed "hype" on social media. So, I teamed up with two friends—one with a PhD in Engineering and another with a PhD in Quantum Math—to build something that makes the math easy to see.

We created XIPÉN (https://xipen.es/). Think of it like a Pokemon Card for stocks.

Instead of reading a 100-page financial report, our engine does the math for you and shows you a simple card:

1. Quality Score: Is the business actually healthy?
2. Fair Value: Are you paying too much, or is it a bargain?

A real example: Novo Nordisk ($NVO) Most beginners want to buy NVO because of the news. But is it a good price?

• Our "Cromo" (Card) shows a Quality of 86/100 (Elite).
• Our math shows it’s actually 42% undervalued right now.
• We call this a "Rare Find"—only 61 out of 12,000+ companies meet this criteria today.

We believe beginners deserve the same high-level data as the pros, but in a way that doesn't require a finance degree to understand.

We are launching today! I’ve set up a 30% discount for this community (first 100 people) with the code XIPEN26.

If you’re just starting out and feel lost looking at a brokerage screen, I’d love for you to check it out and tell us if it helps you feel more confident.

I’ll be here to answer any "beginner" questions about how to read these cards or how we find these "Rare Finds"!

Hey everyone!

I wanted to share XIPEN (https://xipen.es/), a project I’ve been building alongside two PhDs (Modeling Math and Quantum Math).

The goal was to turn boring, 100-page financial reports into a visual "Trading Card" that anyone can understand in 5 seconds, without losing the mathematical rigor.

Tech Stack: * Backend: Python (for the heavy math and DCF simulations).

• Logic: Hybrid DCF with Monte Carlo stress-testing.
• Visuals: Dynamic UI that generates the "Quality Score" based on 4 pillars (Returns, Balance Sheet, Growth, and Margins).

We are moving out of beta today. If you are into investing or just want to see how we’ve modeled the lifecycle of 10,000+ companies, check it out.

Use code XIPEN26 for a 30% discount if you want to support us. Would love to hear your thoughts on the UI and the "Card" concept!

Hey everyone!

I wanted to share XIPEN (https://xipen.es/), a project I’ve been building alongside two PhDs (Math Modeling and Quantum Math).

The goal was to turn boring, 100-page financial reports into a visual "Trading Card" that anyone can understand in 5 seconds, without losing the mathematical rigor.

Tech Stack: * Backend: Python (for the heavy math and DCF simulations).

• Logic: Hybrid DCF with Monte Carlo stress-testing.
• Visuals: Dynamic UI that generates the "Quality Score" based on 4 pillars (Returns, Balance Sheet, Growth, and Margins).

We are moving out of beta today. If you are into investing or just want to see how we’ve modeled the lifecycle of 10,000+ companies, check it out.

Use code XIPEN26 for a 30% discount if you want to support us. Would love to hear your thoughts on the UI and the "Card" concept!