u/Ok-Flounder5679

I thought of an interesting problem with bayesian probability. I’m going to use an example not related to clinical research, but it applies to clinical research too since Bayesian theory is used for it. Let’s say you’re trying to find the chances that someone with a certain trait doesn’t have a certain capacity. 99% of people without the capacity have this trait and 2% of people who may have the capacity (which is currently being questioned) have this trait. That should produce a LR of around 50, right?

But this would produce an abnormally high chance that people with this trait do not have this capacity, which seems unintuitive. Upon thinking about it, I realized that it’s because the 99% of the people who don’t have the capacity don’t have it due to a confounding variable, other illnesses that may cause the trait.

So my question is, do confounding variables reduce the reliability of bayesian probability models? If the 99% figure is possibly caused by other factors, does that change things?

I thought of an interesting problem. Let’s say you’re trying to find the chances that someone with a certain trait doesn’t have a certain capacity. 99% of people without the capacity have this trait and 2% of people who may have the capacity (which is currently being questioned) have this trait. That should produce a LR of around 50, right?

But this would produce an abnormally high chance that people with this trait do not have this capacity, which seems unintuitive. Upon thinking about it, I realized that it’s because the 99% of the people who don’t have the capacity don’t have it due to a confounding variable, other illnesses that may cause the trait.

So my question is, do confounding variables reduce the reliability of bayesian probability models? If the 99% figure is possibly caused by other factors, does that change things?

I thought of an interesting problem. Let’s say you’re trying to find the chances that someone with a certain trait doesn’t have a certain capacity. 99% of people without the capacity have this trait and 2% of people who may have the capacity (which is currently being questioned) have this trait. That should produce a LR of around 50, right?

But this would produce an abnormally high chance that people with this trait do not have this capacity, which seems unintuitive. Upon thinking about it, I realized that it’s because the 99% of the people who don’t have the capacity don’t have it due to a confounding variable, other illnesses that may cause the trait.

So my question is, do confounding variables reduce the reliability of bayesian probability models? If the 99% figure is possibly caused by other factors, does that change things?

I thought of an interesting problem. Let’s say you’re trying to find the chances that someone with a certain trait doesn’t have a certain capacity. 99% of people without the capacity have this trait and 2% of people who may have the capacity (which is currently being questioned) have this trait. That should produce a LR of around 50, right?

But this would produce an abnormally high chance that people with this trait do not have this capacity, which seems unintuitive. Upon thinking about it, I realized that it’s because the 99% of the people who don’t have the capacity don’t have it due to a confounding variable, other illnesses that may cause the trait.

So my question is, do confounding variables reduce the reliability of bayesian probability models? If the 99% figure is possibly caused by other factors, does that change things?

I’ve tried to avoid compulsions. I’ve done scripts, I’ve taken vitamin b and NAC. But the obsessions keep bothering me. Right now, it’s like I know that adhd causes a brain area abnormality that makes decision making harder since people with adhd don’t weigh consequences as well. And I’m afraid that means my boyfriend who has adhd can’t consent because I read on a philosophy site that weighing consequences is required for consent.

I was thinking that’s probably silly, but only probably, it may not be. So there’s a chance, and idk how big the chance, that he can’t agree to sex. So what if I shouldn’t have sex with him just in case I accidentally hurt him?

I know this is ridiculous but it feels so real. Please help, idk what to do.

I’ve tried to avoid compulsions. I’ve done scripts, I’ve taken vitamin b and NAC. But the obsessions keep bothering me. Right now, it’s like I know that adhd causes a brain area abnormality that makes decision making harder since people with adhd don’t weigh consequences as well. And I’m afraid that means my boyfriend who has adhd can’t consent because I read on a philosophy site that weighing consequences is required for consent.

I was thinking that’s probably silly, but only probably, it may not be. So there’s a chance, and idk how big the chance, that he can’t agree to sex. So what if I shouldn’t have sex with him just in case I accidentally hurt him?

I know this is ridiculous but it feels so real. Please help, idk what to do.

I (21F) was at work and some guy came in who my 17F coworker said freaked her out because he looked at her angry. He came in again and spent a long time in the restroom and I got bad vibes and decided to hide because my gut said to. My coworker stayed out ( i didn’t tell her to) and he asked for the white girl. My 24 year old shift lead came out and he wants the other one, me. I refused to come out because I assumed he had bad intentions. Then he says something about there being alot of murderers and to call the police.

I feel like i could’ve saved myself by listening to my gut, but some people online are telling me I’m bad for not going with my coworker in the first place. Again, I never asked her to go up there. I just decided that for myself, I would hide.