Intermittent socket hang up (ECONNRESET) on Edge Functions + random 401s on PostgREST RPC calls, all started today with zero code/config changes

Hey all, looking for a sanity check from anyone else who might be seeing something similar today. Already filed a support ticket but wanted to hear from the community too.

Context: I run a project that's been calling a Supabase Edge Function via the connection pooler on a recurring, stable schedule (via n8n) for months, no issues. Starting today, out of nowhere, I'm seeing intermittent failures across two different parts of the stack, with no deploys, no config changes, no schema changes on my end.

Issue 1: Edge Function socket hang up

n8n → Edge Function calls occasionally fail with:

message: socket hang up
name: Error
code: ECONNRESET

The stack trace shows the TLS socket getting reset mid-request (ECONNRESET), not a normal HTTP error response. So it's not the function returning an error, it's the connection itself dying before a response comes back. Happens maybe 1 in 10-15 calls, same request retried immediately usually succeeds.

Issue 2: Random 401 on PostgREST RPC

Separately, same day, I caught this in the logs for a normal RPC call that's been working fine for a long time:

POST | 401 | .../rest/v1/rpc/get_***
auth_user: null

Retried the exact same call seconds later and it went through fine with no changes on my end. So it looks like the auth/PostgREST layer briefly failed to validate what should've been a valid request.

What I've ruled out so far:

  • No code or config changes on my side today
  • Not a traffic spike / abuse issue on my project (checked usage, nothing unusual)
  • Checked Supabase status page, there's an ongoing "compute capacity degraded" incident across regions (started a couple days ago, still unresolved). Suspect this is related, but the symptoms I'm seeing (socket resets, transient 401s) aren't exactly what that incident describes (which is scoped to restarts/resizes)

Question for the community: Anyone else seeing intermittent connection drops on Edge Functions or transient PostgREST auth failures today? Trying to figure out if this is a known ripple effect from the ongoing compute incident, a pooler (Supavisor) issue, or something else entirely. Already have a support ticket open but curious if others are hitting the same thing right now, and if so, which region.

Region: eu-west-2 Project tier: Pro

Thanks in advance 🙏

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u/PhiloPark — 5 hours ago

Match-fixing risk as a data contamination problem, which European football leagues are actually vulnerable?

Something I keep running into while building betting analytics tools full-time: when it comes to European football, how do you think about match-fixing risk as a variable that can quietly corrupt a statistical model's training data, and as a practical consideration for where it actually makes sense to bet in the first place?

My rough working hypothesis is this: resistance to fixing scales with economic stakes. Players earning at a level where a bribe would be economically irrational relative to their career value, or where the reputational and legal downside is severe, represent a much higher barrier for anyone attempting to compromise a result. Conversely, leagues where player wages are low but betting volume is meaningful create an almost ideal targeting scenario for fixing syndicates: low cost of compromise, high potential payout from the market.

The Greek and Turkish league scandals from recent years are the cases I keep returning to as supporting evidence for this framework. Both had the relevant combination: meaningful European betting market exposure, player wages at a level where compromise was economically viable, and institutional environments where enforcement was inconsistent.

If a subset of historical results in a given league are compromised, those results get treated as signal by any model trained on them, when they're actually noise or worse, adversarial inputs. The model has no way to distinguish a legitimate 3-0 from a fixed one, which means certain leagues may be systematically harder to model not because of randomness but because of structural data contamination.

Which European leagues or competitions do you think carry meaningful fixing risk that's underappreciated by the market?

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u/PhiloPark — 4 days ago
▲ 24 r/PredictionSignal+1 crossposts

Big draw-push on Paraguay vs Australia after MD2 results, thoughts?

After matchday 2 (Australia lost 0-2 to USA, Paraguay beat Turkey 1-0), the 1X2 line on this one has moved hard.

Context:

  • Paraguay's right mid Almiron picked up a red card last match and is suspended here
  • If this ends in a draw, Australia is through to the R32 outright, and Paraguay is also in good shape to advance via the best third-place spot
  • So both sides have a real incentive to not lose, maybe not even to win

Line movement since the MD2 results dropped (screenshot attached): Draw went from 3.27 down to 2.22, Paraguay drifted from 2.10 out to 2.78, Australia ticked up slightly too (3.50 to 3.77). That's a pretty sharp and fast repricing for a draw outcome.

Personally I think this is a reasonable move given the permutations, the incentives line up too cleanly to ignore. But curious what others here think, is the market overreacting to the scenario, or is this just an efficient read on a low-stakes-for-a-win situation? Anyone see either coach actually going for it regardless?

u/PhiloPark — 13 days ago
▲ 16 r/FantasyWC+3 crossposts

I built a free World Cup predictions page with model probabilities vs market odds

Hi everyone,

I’m a solo founder building OddsLine, a football prediction and betting analysis service based on statistical models and AI-assisted match analysis. For the 2026 World Cup, I’ve put together a free page that will be updated throughout the tournament with upcoming match predictions, model probabilities, scoreline forecasts, and comparisons against current UK sportsbook odds.

You can check it out here:
OddsLine World Cup Predictions Today

The page currently includes:

  • Predicted correct scores.
  • Model win/draw/loss probabilities.
  • Model fair odds vs market odds.
  • Short AI-generated previews with match-specific context.

It’s completely free to use and there’s no paywall. I’m sharing it as part of promoting the broader OddsLine service, but everything on this World Cup page is open for anyone to browse during the tournament.

Anyone is welcome to try OddsLine, and I’m happy to answer questions or hear any thoughts about the product or the approach behind it.

u/PhiloPark — 1 month ago