u/Premium_Lover

The bleed feels good

$INTC. $RKLB. $AMD. These tickers have been on a tear recently, with nary a call to be sold. I think the sellers are back in the game. We're back to the point where selling premium makes sense again. It was a rough couple months, because even though the HV was massive, IV was super suppressed. The only stocks that actually had elevated IV were ones that still climbed way outside the expected move time after time after time.

Now that things have kind of returned to some sense of normalcy, I am reveling in the premium.

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u/Premium_Lover — 2 days ago

TRADING DISCIPLINE: Have separate accounts

Broadly speaking, there are three types of mindsets in the market:

  • investors, who spend time considering inner workings of a company and generally have a longer time horizon;
  • gamblers, who try to get rich quickly and become emotionally tied to their positions; and
  • traders, who use mechanics to maximize the ratio of daily P/L to risk.

An individual may have inclinations towards multiple mindsets at a time, but in my opinion, mixing mindsets leads to muddying one's motivations for each position. For example, when mixing motivations, an investor may decide to sell calls against their position to free up cash in order to YOLO a 0DTE. A possible outcome is that this person has compromised their position's tax status (realizing previously unrealized gains) for a failed lottery ticket.

If you have the inclination for multiple of these mindsets, please do your best to isolate them from one another. Cordon each into their own P/L items, if for no other reason than it allows you to evaluate your relative success in each arena.

I have a passive long-term account, an active long-term account (for stock picking based on fundamental analysis), a speculative account, and my trading account. This is essential for anyone who deals with FOMO, like me. Some may feel like their personal investment strategy is indicted when they see Redditors with 200% YTD gains. Having separate accounts, where you are able to assess your performance utilizing each mindset, will give you personal reassurance that your current strategies and allocations are well founded.

In a sense, treat each account like its own investment vehicle. You are multiple hedge fund CEO's, as well as the CFO of your personal finances. You as the CFO get to decide which CEO has the best outlook and strategies. It is imperative to keep these roles as separate as is psychologically feasible. It will allow you to make the most sound decisions both within the market and with your personal finances.

u/Premium_Lover — 10 days ago
▲ 356 r/stocks

The war is back on, boys!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stock-futures-fall-oil-surges-as-trump-calls-irans-latest-offer-to-end-war-totally-unacceptable-187e3d87

(Disclosure: I have a long position in USO that I plan to take off first thing tomorrow morning.)

Trump says that the most recent terms are "totally unacceptable." Oil futures have risen over 3%.

I keep telling y'all that USO is printing. Go short, and then in two more days, we'll have another resolution. Go long, and repeat.

reddit.com
u/Premium_Lover — 12 days ago

Private equity valuations are notorious for not being based in reality and actualized cashflows. Plus, there are whispers that they will be negative cashflow in around nine months, and 40% of data centers are behind schedule.

>[Amazon]'s $8 billion investment in Anthropic is now worth more than $70 billion, according to Amazon. They added that Amazon’s investment in Anthropic is separate from its commercial relationship.

To me, this is one of the symptoms of the "circular financing" that people keep referencing. These companies bought stakes in Anthropic, and then later claim that the value of that investment has skyrocketed. However, updating stake values for earnings is standard practice.

>Robert Willens, a tax and accounting consultant who has served as an adjunct at Columbia Business School, told Fortune the accounting itself is uncontroversial. Companies that hold equity stakes in private firms are required to update those stakes’ value when a new funding round sets a price.

It comes down to whether or not you believe that Anthropic can be cashflow positive anytime soon, and whether or not you believe that the fundraising rounds represents legitimate value.

>Alphabet and Amazon are two of those investors. When they put more money into Anthropic, or commit to spending billions on cloud capacity for it, that helps push Anthropic’s valuation up. And when Anthropic’s valuation goes up, the stake Alphabet and Amazon already own goes up with it. They book that increase as profit; in this case, a substantial cut of their profits, even more than half. 

EDIT: Here is a correction made by u/Benjamminmiller --

>The two companies unrealized Q1 profits (45.5b) are also not more than half of their combined Q1 nets (92.9). Especially since google's number is the unrealized gains of all their private holdings.

u/Premium_Lover — 16 days ago

I had a broken wing butterfly in GOOGL for earnings. Long the 367.5 and 380 calls; short two 370 calls -- 2 DTE. Was in for $1.15 credit.

Because of the parabolic move, I entered a GTC trade order which would take me out for a $0.35 loss. This was a mistake.

I had the intention of closing the long call spread (which gained value), and then rolling the short call spread (which was being tested). For some reason, I got scared and traded emotionally. If I had remained disciplined, and legged out of my loser, I would most likely have had a nice little profit.

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u/Premium_Lover — 22 days ago