Tax arbitrage in retirement – how's my plan?
Trying to put together a plan for funding expenses in 2027.
Current scenario:
• 66 y/o, Single filer, retired two years ago
• Trad IRA: $600k (80/20 - S&P 500 index fund/Fixed Income)
• Roth IRA: $30k (100% S&P 500 index fund)
• Taxable brokerage: $80k (100% S&P 500 index fund) (Lump sum investment of $77k, purchased May 2026)
• Annual expenses: $60k
• Annual Social Security at FRA (age 67): $41k
• Delaying Social Security until 70: Estimated annual benefit $50k
Plan for 2027:
• Delay Social Security until 2030 (Age 70)
• Pay expenses by drawing from Taxable brokerage and Trad IRA
2027 Estimated Tax Breakdown (using this tax calculator):
• Long term capital gains: $5k (Taxable brokerage withdrawal of ~$40k )
• Taxable IRA distributions: $30k (Trad IRA distributions of $20k & Roth conversions of $10k)
• Total income: $35k
• AGI: $35k
• Total tax owed after deductions and credits: $588
2027 Plan Goals:
• Minimize taxes by utilizing LTCG from brokerage (once lump sum investment is a year old, in May 2027).
• By keeping taxes under $1,000, avoid underpayment penalty and having to make any quarterly estimated payments. (Safe Harbor)
• Minimize RMDs (which begin in 2035 at age 75) with Roth conversions and drawdown of Trad IRA.
Notes:
• Will keep Roth conversions small each year going forward; to avoid the downside of a corresponding big tax hit, and towards keeping total taxes under $1,000 for the year.
• Would like to minimize RMDs as much as possible – as they will most likely exceed what I need to draw from Trad IRA for expenses.
• Not planning on any future QCDs or legacy considerations to factor into the equation.
• If 2027 plan is solid, I'll repeat it in 2028 and 2029.
Prior to retiring two years ago I had little to no knowledge of investing, optimizing taxes, retirement, etc. etc. So I've spent the last two years being like a sponge and trying to ramp up as much as possible. Using everything I've learned the last couple years – I put this plan together by the seat of my pants. So any critiques are appreciated.
How solid is the plan?