u/RZDirInvest

Think about those pumpers who have been trying to pump it to ~$600 to get OpenAI and Meta “free shares”. They will com back and they have to, if they want to make the shady deals happen. And we will dump it to them. We will wait until after the dilution if it happens. With that, the cloud over AMD will be removed, and AMD will do better.

BTW, without OpenAI and Meta deals, and the pump and dump trade, AMD will do ok as a decent semiconductor stock long term.

As much as we want to invest in high growth stocks, everyone should have at least 10% cash or fixed income ETF. “Fully invested “ (100%) is too greedy , dangerous and stupid. When the tide fades, we will see who is swimming naked, as Buffet put it.

Silicon Photonics (SiPho) is next sub-sector for explosive long term directional growth. Potential candidates of directional trade are listed below (in Alphabetical order). Do your own research!!

1. CIEN
2. COHR
3. CRDO
4. GFS
5. LITE
6. MRVL
7. POET

My Answers are yes, yes and YES! Expect high volatility though so size wisely and trade around/key core positions. AMD vs MU comparison shown below
Revenue Base: Much Smaller vs ~2.5x larger
Growth Rate: Lower vs High
Margin: Much Lower vs High
PE or PEG: Quite High vs Low
Market Share: a. GPU/CPUShare: Small/~45% vs HBM/DRAM: 22%/ 22%
GPU Competition: AMD vs NVDA vs AVGO/MRVL/GOOG/AMZN…(ASIC/TPU) (GPU will dominate in the foreseeable future for training. Inference & Edge A is a dog fight), extremely competitive, third fiddle player, trying to catch up
CPU Competition: AMD vs INTC vs ARM vs NVDA vs AMZN vs QCOM…(ARM architecture will win over large CPU market share within 2 ~ 3years), extremely competitive, no moat!
HBM/DRAM Competition: Samsung vs SKHY vs MU (Tri-nopoly), super high moat for the BIG THREE
Demand: High vs Super High (through the roof)
Customer Base: Mainly OpenAI & ORCL(some Hyperscalers) vs NVDA, BRCM and other Semiconductor companies, All Hyperscalers
Customer Quality: OpenAI/Meta Need AMD to reach 1T to get “Free AMD Shares” in order to pay for the deal. This significantly dilutes the share value. The investors actually pay for their deal vs All major customers’ long term contracts and pre-paid orders
Cyclicality: CPU (Cyclical)/GPU(less Cyclical) vs same as GPU (most system 1GPU have 4 to 6 HBMs)
Balance Sheet: Good vs Excellent
Share Buy Back and Dividends: None vs ~0% Dividend
Investor Base: Momentum (Pump & Dump) vs Momentum/Long Term Investment
AMD and MU Strategy (Education only, not a recommendation): Trade (Buy ~$500, Trim ~$550, Dump ~$600) vs Long Term Core Holding( Buy ~$800, Trim ~$1100, Trim more ~ $1200, …hold cores)
There are definitely gamblers and pump-and-dump traders for AMD and pumpers for MU. MU fundamentals have definitely changed. As long as AI is alive, MU will thrive. Enjoy the ride!
Both AMD and MU good companies. AMD is a trade at this level and MU is a trade and a core holding.
We don’t want to subsidize OpenAI to pay for AMD deal though. When AMD gets to 1T$ (~$600/share), OpenAI gets “free shares” which severely dilutes investors’ shares. To be very frank, OpenAI doesn’t have the money. And you, the investors need to flip the bill.

AMD is a good company in a right sector. Semi long term direction is up, so is AMD. The semi pie will grow long term, as a 3rd fiddle player, AMD will do ok, even though large swing is expected. The biggest issue with AMD is the quality of their deals with OpenAI, Meta and ORCL. None of them financially capable of completing the deal, without some kind of special financing. In the case of OpenAI & Meta, they need to get “free shares” from AMD hitting milestone of 1T, ~$600/share, which is about 20% share dilution. Many pumpers have strong incentive to pump it up. I am not paying for it. $600 is a DUMP!

I have built up my AMD position and are ready for a pump & dump begin. There are AMD pumpers who are trying to get OpenAI and Meta 160 million “free shares”. Remember AMD trade, buy ~$500, trim ~ $550, and DUMP ~$600. We are not paying for OpenAI and Meta “free shares” for 20% dilution. Enjoy the ride!

Our goal is long term (5+ years) compound gain that beats QQQ using directional investment strategy
Long term directional investment: which sectors are going up over long term (5+ years)?
Answers: Semi/Optical, Cybersecurity/Software, AI/HyperscalersFinancial, Insurance/Housing, Industrial, Biotech/Phama, High Yield, Speculative,Treasury/Cash
A good portfolio sample: a. 25% semi/optical (NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, SKHY, AMD, MRVL, AAOI, GLW, CIEN..) b. 10% Cybersecurity/Software (CRWD, PANW, PLTR, SNOW, TWLO, CRM, NOW…) c. 10% Financial (GS, JPM, C, MS, BX, V, SOFI..) d. 10% AI/Hyperscalers (TSLA, SPCX, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, META…) e. 5% Insurance/Housing(PRU, UNH, HD, TOL…) f. 10% Industrial (GE, GEV, BE, PWR, ETN, BAM, BIP, …) g. 8% Biotech/Phama (ABBV, BMY, PFE, MRK, GILD…) h. 10% High Yield (CIM, NLY, EMO, JEPQ, PAA…) i. 2% Speculative: (crypto and others, you are on your own) j. 10% Treasury/Cash
The size of the trade depends on your personal situation, your financial situation, knowledge and conviction
BTFD/TTFH/KTFC SLOWLY. Be disciplined. Ignore short term performance. Trying to beat S&P or QQQ every month or every quarter is a fool’s game. Long term, you will easily beat QQQ
Stay tuned for more investment/trade discussions

Short/Mid Term (5+ Years) Trade Candidates: ALAB, AMAT, AMD, ARM, MRVL, MU, SKHY, SNDK…not a complete list
These are good companies and the stocks often time have momentum, but I am not a momentum trader. I always give time to let the trades play out and look for quick or mid term significant gains (> 20%)
Start a small position and increase large size using DCA (every 3% down) SLOWLY. Catch falling knife if needed. Just size correctly so that you don’t get your fingers cut. NO STOP LOSS.
The size of the trade depends on your personal situation, your financial situation, knowledge and conviction on semiconductor technology, and more importantly, your financial and physiological strength.
Don’t take any profits if it is NOT larger than 20%.
Sample Trades (NOT Recommendations): a. AMD Trade (Buy ~$500, Trim ~$550, Dump ~$600) b. MU( Buy ~$800, Trim ~$1100, Trim more ~ $1200, …hold core) c. MRVL (Buy ~$180, Trim ~$220, Trim more ~$250, …hold core)
Shoot for short/mid term 20% + gains
Warnings: a. not suitable momentum or impatient traders who ONLY care about chart and momentum b. These are fundamentally good semiconductor companies. The swing can be large, but they do come back as long as AI trade is alive. Be disciplined!
All semiconductors are cyclical in nature, but they are going much higher over long term. AI accelerators ( GPU/ASIC) and memory are less cyclical and have much higher margins than CPU.
Why do we dump AMD ~$600? OpenAI and Meta will get (~10%) “free AMD shares” EACH (total of ~20%) that severely dilute investors share value. WE ARE NOT PAYING FOR THEIR FREE SHARES.
Why do we buy AMD then? AI semiconductor is a growing pie. AMD plays a third fiddle after NVDA and AVGO as a AI accelerator and semi provider. It is 2nd tier good semi investment. I’d rather than them having a cleaner business demands without OpenAI/Meta deals. To me, I think this is a Sam’s (Ponzi like) SCHEME. Without investors’ free shares, Sam doesn’t have the money.
Stay tuned for more semi investment/trade discussions

Will you hold a large position of NVDA, TSM or MU for 5+ years, no matter what happens to the rate and economy? Your answer may shed light on whether you are a good long term directional investor.

Long Term (5+ Years) Core Candidates: NVDA, TSM, ASML or AVGO
I have held HUGE NVDA (8+ years) and large TSM (5+ years). Still like both for next 5+ years. You can choose your favorite Semi stocks, if you are confident for their long term perspective
Build up large position DCA (every 3% down) SLOWLY
The size of the investment depends on your personal situation, your financial situation, knowledge and confidence on semiconductor technology, and more importantly, your financial and physiological strength, how much volatility you can take…you must be able to sleep well, and do not need to watch them every day or even every week
Don’t take any profits if it is NOT larger than 50% and if it is NOT LONG TERM
After you build up large enough enough positions, do the following: BTFD - Buy The Fucking Dip; TTFH - Trim The Fucking High; KTFC - Keep The Fucking Cores
Shoot for multi-bagger performance and eventual all house money investment forever
Warnings: a. not suitable for people who do not have financial strength and stomach to endure up and down, up to 50% or more b. For the core holdings, don’t worry about short term performance. Focus on long term compound growth. Do what you plan to do. Be disciplined!
Stay tuned for more semi trade discussions

Creditability: a. retired semiconductor veteran from one of the most important semiconductor companies, if it is not THE most important one b. Very successful long term semi investor/trader
Long term semi core holdings: NVDA (8+ years), QCOM (10+ years), TSM (5+ years)
Key semi trading stocks: AVGO, AMD, ASML, ARM, AMAT, ALAB, CRDO, NXPI, ON, TXN, SOXL/SOXS
Investment Theory: a. All semiconductor stocks are cyclical, but over long term, semiconductor, in general, goes much higher, outpacing pretty much all sectors, that’s why semiconductor should be an important part of anyone’s LONG TERM INVESTMENT STRATEGY b. Identify core holdings and trading stocks, treat them accordingly c. BTFD/TTFH
Investment Strategies: a. Hold large core holdings for the long term (5+ years) b. Trade momentum semi stocks to take advantage of short term ups and downs c. Use 3x ETF SOXL/SOXS for more beta and small hedge
Warnings: a. not suitable for people who do not have financial strength and stomach to endure up and down, up to 50% or more b. For the core holdings, don’t worry about short term performance. Focus on long term compound growth. Do what you plan to do. Be disciplined! c. Don’t take any profits if you don’t have at least 50% long term gains. Shoot for multi-baggers. In fact, all my long term semi core holdings are multi-baggers, in the case of NVDA, 10+ baggers
Stay tuned for more detailed investment and trade discussions

Both OpenAI and Meta will get 160 million AMD share (~10%) warrants (for $0.01) EACH. These deals are almost scams. I am NOT paying for OpenAI’s and Meta’s warrants.
Don’t get me wrong. AMD isn’t a bad company. I consider it as 2nd tier semiconductor company after NVDA, TSM, or ASML/BRCM. When NVDA (GPU) and BRCM (ASIC) do not have capacity to fill, AMD and MRVL come in. The pie is growing and some customers want to keep 2nd source. Treat AMD and MRVL as momentum trades because there many pumpers who continue to pump up smaller and inferior AMD and MRVL. AMD fair value is between $350 and $450, but can be pumped up to $550 when market is good. AMD is a dump ~$600, which is 20% share dilution. Let the bumpers to pay for OpenAI and Meta.

Long Term (5+ years) Core Holdings: NVDA, TSM or ASML/AVGO
Momentum Trades: AMD, ARM, MU or MRVL
AMD Trade: buy \~ $500, Trim \~ $550, Dump \~ $600
MU Trade: buy \~$820, Trim \~ $1100, Trim more $1300, hold the rest for long term
Note 1: Elon put his big money on where his big mouth is. NVDA Rubin is the best, AMD is a 2nd tier semi company. Plus CPU is a much lower margin business compared to GPU and memory. ARM architecture will win over large portions of CPU market within 2 years.
Note 2: We don’t pay for OpenAI’s and Meta’s “free shares “! They have to come up with their own money to buy AMD’s chips.