u/RevenueAlarmed

Bethesda, what the fuck. He was set up to the be the leader of the Blades, he had a sad backstory of his Family being killed by the Thalmor, and he was funny as hell. And he fucking dies in the third main mission, not to mention that he was voiced by JK Simmons, people were excited to see him in an elder scrolls game, his voice was in every trailer and now he is dead.

Fuck you Todd

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The Major Summer Showcases have wrapped up, and we have not received any news on The Elder Scrolls 6, this has caused much of the subreddit to be upset. The lack of information at the trailers is made worse by the fact that we have not received any news on this game in 8 years, which has caused a significant portion of the internet to give into doomerism, saying things like “The game has just started development” or “This Game will release in 2030+”. Heck you don't even need to look far to see information like that. 

https://preview.redd.it/fjp1odlhle6h1.png?width=823&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cabed64241974fd351376529e3a698073853162

The Good news is, through Developer Interviews, Internal Bethesda Leaks and Industry Info; we can infer some information about the Elder Scrolls 6, which can allow us to predict when the game can potentially release and how it will be received and play when it releases, 

So when is the Game Releasing? 

This is the Question that everyone in this subreddit wants answers to, and unfortunately, there is no accurate guess for this. The actual release date is known only to Bethesda, and even Bethesda’s best guess can be altered by internal factors like the ongoing engine upgrades; Starfield’s reputation causing Tes6 to be under more scrutiny, potentially causing the game to take longer; the game being plagued with scope creep or key features of the game being reworked. There are internal events that are happening at Bethesda, which can lead to the game being rushed or delayed; rendering any guess impossible. 

With that being said, there are several tidbits from interviews with Todd Howard, Job Postings, New Hires and News From Bethesda,  which can be used to predict a potential release date.  

• Development of Tes6 Started immediately after Starfield finished development in 2023, according to Pete Hines
• Kurt Khulman said that the Games location was decided on during the development of Fallout 4, with the location, we can assume that the games initial worldbuilding and writing started well before the game entered full development. 
• In early 2024, Bethesda confirmed that they were playing through early builds of the game in a 40th anniversary post. 
• In Early 2025, Internal trailers for Tes6 were apparently circling around Bethesda; this did not come from a reputable source (Jez Corden), so take it with a grain of salt. 
• In August 2025, John Dombrow, a seasoned writer who worked on the Mass Effect trilogy, was hired as a senior Quest Designer at Bethesda.
• In November 2025, Todd Howard said that the game was “Still a Long Way Off”, in the same interview, Todd confirmed that the team just conducted an Internal Playtest.  
• In November 2025, Trademarks for an “Elder Scrolls” project were filed in Switzerland, potentially being related to the elder scrolls 6 
• In February 2026, Todd Howard, in an interview with KindaFunnyGames,  said that The Elder Scrolls 6, is being worked on by the majority of the studio but is still “a while away”. Todd also mentioned that Starfield and 76 were creative detours, and Tes6 will return to Bethesda’s traditional formula. 
• In The Same Interview with KindaFunnygames, Todd talks about Creation Engine 3, talking about rendering, world systems and “how to maintain a high level of detail as things are brought towards the camera”. 
• In an Interview with IGN, in 2026, Todd talked about how the majority of the team and several external patterns were working on Tes6. Todd Talks about how Creation Engine 3 is being integrated into the development cycle, stating that “The Builds are consistently working more often than not”, stating how the engine change is going smoother than starfield. 
• In Early 2026, a release manager job opening was posted at Zenimax, the parent company of Bethesda, this indicates that the groundwork is being played for the games pre - release marketing push

 

In summary, as of June 2026, here is where I think the game is, though take this with a massive grain of Skooma, as I don't have much knowledge of the game development process. 

Gameplay/World

• The key systems of the game are most likely in place. In his interview with KindaFunnyGames, he said that The Elder Scrolls 6 is a return to the classic Bethesda formula. Todd would not say this in an official interview if the game's core systems were still in conceptualization. This means that the core systems that define a TES game, like leveling, attributes, skills, crafting etc are in advanced stages. 
• Going off the last assumption I made, I think a significant portion of the worldspace is complete, while I don't think the Elder Scrolls 6 was planned to be a procedurally generated world at any point of development, I still think Todd would not say the game is a “Return to the Classics” without having much of the world down. 
• If you disagree with my 2 previous points, the Internal Playtests prove that the world and gameplay systems are in  a semi - advanced stage, people can't playtest things that don't exist. 
• The Winner of the Silent auction and the UESP team got to add characters and received a showcase of this game. External Playtests happen at a more advanced stage of development than Internal playtests, as people off the streets expect a polished experience and studio devs usually don't.

 

The Engine 

• The Key Features of the Creation Engine 3 seem to be in advanced stages of development; Todd is able to state some of the key features of creation engine 3 with good detail, that being “ high level of detail as things are brought towards the camera”, Todd also refrains from talking about some of the details of the Creation Engine 3 in his interview with IGN, entailing that major advancements in the engine were made.
• In His Interview with IGN, Todd is saying how new Engine Features are successfully being Integrated into Tes6 as the game is being developed, where the build “Work More Often Than They Don't", this Indicates that the Key Features of the Engine are in advanced stages, as this would not be possible if Creation Engine 3 was in an Early Stage; because you can't implement new engine features into a game if the Engine is still in early stages.

 

The Writing 

• The Initial World Building, The Factions, The rough outline for the main quest were all completed before full production of this game started; Kurt Khulman confirmed that the main setting for this game was confirmed in 2015, and the Initial draft of the games story most likely existed by then, with Bethesda having 8 years to slowly iterate on it
• John Dombrow being Hired in 2025 is not a good sign, In my opinion. Studios don't hire a game writer when a game's story is halfway through development, and it’s not a good idea when they do. This indicates that the writing for the quests, companions etc are progressing slowly, or at the very least, slower than everything else. 
• John Dombrow was not Hired as a Junior Quest Designer, He was hired as a senior quest designer, meaning he is in a leadership position, this makes integrating him to the writing team Mid Development difficult, which is why I think the game’s writing was not far along in 2025.

The Marketing 

• The Release manager job was posted a couple of months ago, this indicates that the groundwork for the marketing effort is being laid down as we speak. Though we have not received any public information of a new hire at Bethesda, which could be because the hiring was done anonymously, or because the job position was not filled. 
• The Switzerland trademark was filed a couple months after the release manager position was listed online, this could indicate that Bethesda are preparing to accept pre-orders for Tes6 related merchandise (Like the collectors edition), or this could just be a legal trademark for the name of the game.

(TLDR - Gameplay/World Design/Engine are in advanced stages, Writing is lagging Behind. The Groundwork for the marketing is being laid out right now)  

So where does this put the Tes6? Well, the game is clearly not in pre - production and since the game is not dropping “Tommorow”, it is not in the pre - release phase either; and since the Game is not out, it's not in post release either.  There are two places where Tes6 can be. 

Production - The main phase of development where everything gets made. The Tech Specialists tweak the engine to add new features, The Programs iterate on the codebase for the game, The artists model everything, The Quest Designers write and design the quests for the game, and so on. This is the longest and most impactful stage of development. 

The “Glue” Phase - From what I have gathered, this phase is unique to Bethesda. This phase is where every single aspect of the game gets connected or “Glued” together. Usually starting 1 year to 6 months before development. In starfield’s development, I think the glue phase kicked in during 2022, where Todd Howard said that the game was “Finally fun to play”. The starting point for the Glue Phase will be different for Tes6. 

With everything being said, I don't think Tes6 is in the Glue phase, and is still in the production phase, albeit in an advanced part of the production phase. 

If we look at Bethesda’s last Traditional Game, Fallout 4, the game was entering the Glue Phase around this time. In a documentary called “The Making of Fallout 4”, the game was said to be in an Alpha build when it was showcased in E3, 3.5 years through development. Fallout 4 did not enter the Alpha build 3.5 years, it was In The Alpha Build, meaning that Fallout 4 was most likely in the Glue Phase 3 years into development, the same place Tes6 is right now. Everything said, I think Tes6 is being made at a slower pace than their past traditional RPG’s. Here’s why. 

The Engine Upgrades - Todd Said that the development of the Creation Engine 3 is going smoothly, even with that being said, Upgrading a game engine introduces technical challenges that make game development more complex. 

John Dombrow - I don't have anything against the guy, but him being hired 2 years into the game’s development is not a good sign, it would be more excusable if he was a “Junior” quest designer, but he was hired as a senior quest designer less than a year ago. And as I said before, studios usually don't hire writers in the middle of the writing process. Meaning that the writing is most likely not as far along as everything else - creating bottlenecks for every other part of development. 

The Starfield Effect

But, the biggest reason why I think Tes6 is not in the Glue Phase; and is taking longer to make than Fallout 4 and Skyrim, is indisputably Starfield.  Whether you agree with the online sentiment around Starfield, I generally don't, It is clear that Starfield disappointed much of the internet, and a lot of people have turned that disappointment to hate, and directed that hate to Starfield,  to past games like Fallout 4 and Skyrim, to Bethesda employees like Todd and Emil and most worryingly for Bethesda, The Elder Scrolls 6 

https://preview.redd.it/h9y6lxj6le6h1.png?width=1092&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c277a54ee542e4cfefa913e2d8d429ded2cad52

If you type TES6 on any corner of the Internet, you will be met with videos and posts of people calling the game “Cooked” or declaring another game as a “Replacement”. If you talk to someone about the Elder Scrolls 6  in many internet circles, chances are, they will say the game is “Cooked” because of 76 and Starfield. I'm not trying to enforce a certain opinion on you, if you agree with the things I described above, that’s none of my business. But the sentiment around Bethesda, created by Fallout 76 and exacerbated by Starfield, is going to make the development of Tes6 far harder.

Because of the sentiment around Bethesda, Every Trailer they put out will be scrutinized for any weakness, and will be torn apart if a single thing is wrong; Every Single public statement will be viewed as a “Lie” or as "Corporate Statements" even if they are truthful, and most worryingly of all; A significant portion of the Internet will not give the game a fair chance, and view it as “Bad” the moment it drops. And if you think I am exaggerating, look at the Starfield DLC, sitting at 23% recent positive steam reviews, despite correcting many of Starfield’s shortcomings, being priced at 10$, introducing new gameplay mechanics and coinciding with an update that lowered the price of the base game. This update is objectively not a 23/100, but because a lot of the internet already hates Starfield, the recent reviews are a 23/100; and the steam reviews are gonna climb into mostly negative, the same as Shattered Space, despite correcting a lot of its shortcomings. Tes6 will suffer from the same effect, how severe it is depends on how good the game is. Bethesda cant afford to make Tes6 a mediocre, good or even a great game to a certain extent because if they do, the internet will view the game as another “Starfield level disappointment”, and the game will become a critical flop and lose most of its long term playerbase; and be surrounded by the most vitriolic discourse imaginable.  

Many people say that Bethesda is Disconnected from Criticism, while I won't comment on that claim here; I am near certain that they are aware of Starfield’s reputation, because they would not have made a “Creation Engine 3”, if Starfield was viewed as a success in the Technical front and they would called Starfield a “Creative Detour” if it was successful on a design front, and they would not have waited a year and a half to release the second Expansion, if they had faith in the game. The Truth is, Bethesda Knows that Starfield is Viewed as a disappointment by the public, and they know that any thing they put out is gonna suffer as a Result; which is gonna lead to the development of Tes6 taking longer, as they attempt to reach fan expectations. 

When I think the Game is Releasing 

With everything said, I think the game will most likely release in Early/Mid 2028. 

A November 2027 release date is plausible - but it’s only 4.2 years after the release of Starfield, which is about how long Fallout 4 took, and because of a lead writer being hired 2 years into production, The Creation Engine 3 and Starfield’s Icy reception; I the development process of Tes6 will be more than 2 months longer than fallout 4.

Fable

There is also one more reason why I think a Late 2027 release date is unlikely, that being Fable. Fables release date was recently pushed back from Fall 2026, to February 2027, while Fables release date is 10 months away from November 2027, Xbox also has a second major RPG releasing in 2027, Clockwork Revolution is set to release in 2027 as well, if clockwork revolution releases in Fall 2027 and Tes6 releases soon after, Tes6 will cannibalize Clockwork’s playerbase. This makes a release date in 2027 less likely for me. 

There is one reason why I think Bethesda could want to release Tes6 in 2027, that being the Witcher 4. While I don't want to speculate on the quality of either game, there is a chance that the Witcher 4 could “Expose” Tes6 if they release in the same year, just like how people compared Cyberpunk Phantom Liberty to Starfield. Whether you think the comparisons were Valid or not (they weren't), this will not stop the Internet from relentlessly comparing Tes6 to the Witcher 4; and unless Bethesda somehow matches CDPR in every aspect, it would not matter how much Bethesda improved their technologies, writing and animations; because they will be negatively compared to CDPR, while everything Bethesda does better will be ignored. This makes the bar which Bethesda needs to cross to meet expectations far higher, which could not be worth the tradeoff of Bethesda taking an extra 6 - 10 months to polish the game. But this relies on Bethesda being self - aware enough to realize this, which they might not, and CDPR releasing the Witcher 4 in 2028, which I think they will, but it's not guaranteed; this further backs my 2028 prediction. 

As for potential release date, 8/8/28 or August 8th 2028 works pretty well as a release date, if Bethesda wants to Target Mid 2028, as it has a cool date. For an Early 2028 release date 4/12/28, could work as all the dates are powers of 2 and multiplies of 4; maybe that can factor into the game, idk. 11/11/27 could work if Bethesda wants to target Late 2027, Todd can say “16 years after Skyrim, 16 times the detail”.  I don't think the game will release after 2028, which is a perfect Segway into my next section - 

Why The Game is not Releasing after 2028

There seem to be a lot of people on the Internet that think the game is releasing later than 2028, or even after 2030. These claims are completely unfounded, and go against all currently known Information about Tes6. Here is why -

The main reason why the game is not going to take that long is because that’s not how Game Development works. Common Intuition suggests that if you spend more time on something, it will be “Better”, this does not apply to game development. A large dev team working on their game for 6,7,8 or 9 years does not usually mean that the game is slowly getting better, it means the creative direction of the game is in limbo, key mechanics of the game are being constantly changed and/or the core mechanics of the game don't work; in more simpler terms, the game is in Development Hell. If you want Tes6 to take more than 6 years, You Dont. And if you think Tes6 is in “Development hell”, look at Starfield, it took 5 years to make, while having an extremely rough development process; I don't see how Tes6 will take longer while being in a better position.

Todd, and Bethesda by proxy, are also aware that fans are tired of waiting. Todd Howards Son literally sent him a Postcard Titled, “Your a Great Dad, Where is The Elder Scrolls 6”. Not to mention that Todd, in a recent interview,  said that “he does not want the fans to be anxious”, why would he say that if he was unaware about how people felt about Tes6. 

https://preview.redd.it/a5yj4cvbme6h1.png?width=925&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3772bc2930d142720518459dd9346e90ea86547

So why is it such a common occurrence to find someone talking about how Tes6 is releasing after 2029, or 2032; or that it just started development. It is because of the Narrative. If you dislike or hate Bethesda, thinking that Tes6 is more than 5 years away gives you more of a reason to dislike or hate Bethesda, backing your mindset. If you are a Creator, you can take advantage of the people who think the game is releasing later than 2030, and say the same thing, to farm engagement and gain followers. Unfortunately, that's just Human Nature. But to be fair to the Doomers, a good chunk of them are unfamiliar about Bethesda or Game development in general, which causes their predictions to be way off.

When Should We Get An Announcement 

The unfortunate truth about this is that it’s impossible to tell. Because there are little to no reliable sources, the only reliable information we can accurately is the time from reveal trailer to revealed announcement, which tells us how far a games reveal trailer was to its initial announcement. 

Skyrim - Feb 23rd (11 months from the game launch)
Fallout 4 - Jun 3rd (6 months from game launch)
Starfield - June 13th 2021 (15 months from initial game launch) 
*not accounting the delay

Calculating the mean of this set of Data gives us an average time between reveal trailer and reveal date of 10.6 or 320 days. This data set has several glaring flaws, the main one being the sample size. If we wanted to calculate the reveal trailer of a Capcom game, we probably could, because they have released hundreds of games over the past decade, but Bethesda has released only 3 single games since Skyrim, which results in an unreliable data set. There are 2 outliers here, Fallout 4 being released 6 months after the trailer, and Starfield having a Release Date 15 months after the game was showcased, this creates high spread between all entries - In other words, This is not a reliable way to calculate when to expect an announcement, but its all we have, so fuck it 

Lets apply the 320 day reveal to release date timeline to 3 of my release date estimates.  

Scenario 1 - The Game Releases on 11/11/27. 

• Initial reveal in Jan 26, 2027

Scenario 2 - The Game Releases on 4/12/28. 

• Initial reveal in June 27, 2027

 

Scenario 3 - The Game Releases on 8/8/28

• Initial reveal in Sept 22, 2027

Factoring our 320 day window, we have a date ranging from January 2027 to September 2027, where we could potentially get an announcement, but I will allow events one month before and after Jan/Sept because of my datasets high standard deviation. 

The Game Awards — December 2026
Xbox Developer Direct —  January 2027
PAX East — March 2027
GDC — March 2027
State of Play (Sony) — around Spring 2027
Xbox Games Showcase — June 2027
Summer Game Fest — June 2027
Gamescom Opening Night Live — August 2027
PAX West — August/September 2027
Tokyo Game Show — September
Nintendo Directs — Happen Randomly

We can eliminate irrelevant events like GDC and PAX west, we can also eliminate the Playstation and Nintendo showcases, because Bethesda is owned by Xbox. Which leaves us with The 2026 Game Awards, The 2027 Xbox Developer Direct, The 2027 Xbox Games Showcase and SGF 2027

If I were to rank these potential Showcases

Xbox Games Showcase - Bethesda is owned by Xbox, so a drop here would make perfect sense. 
Game Awards - This is the Biggest possible audience that this reveal could attract. But it’s not on Xbox’s home turf, which could penalize it in the eyes of the Higher Ups. 
Summer Games Fest - Closer to Tes6’s potential release windows, but has the same drawbacks as the Game Awards, while not having as big of an Audience.

Xbox Developer Direct - This showcase mainly showcases revealed games, dropping a reveal for Tes6 here would not make sense. 
Gamescom - Like SGF but worse
On A Random Day - I think this is what Todd wants, but I cant see Xbox not dropping the Tes6 trailer at an event.

So, in summary, the first event I would expect Tes6 in is The 2026 game awards, then SGF/Xbox Showcase then Gamescom. 
 
The Absolute Worse Case Scenario

Assuming we get unlucky, taking the standard deviation of our data set gives us a minimum release window of 207 days, combining that with our farthest off release date gives us Jan 13th 2028, right after the 2027 game awards. This means if we somehow don't get a Tes6 reveal before the 2027 game awards, the game is probably in trouble, and you all have the right to freak out and turn into r/HalfLife3

TLDR

• Gameplay/World Design/Engine are in advanced stages, Writing is lagging Behind. The Groundwork for the marketing is being laid out right now
• Tes6 is in the Late Production Phase, and development of this game is going to take longer than fallout 4, mainly because a lead writer was hired 2 years into development and Starfield has an Icey reputation
• A Late 2027 release date is possible but I think an Early/Mid 2028 release date is likely. 
• Based on a data set of past Reveal - Release timelines for past Bethesda games, the showcases you should look out for are The 2026 Game Awards, The 2027 Xbox Developer Direct, The 2027 Xbox Games Showcase and SGF 2027.
• According to my calculations, the latest this game could get revealed is in the game awards 2027, after that we panic. 
• I don't work at Bethesda, so this is not very accurate, but its my best guess.