u/RoyalRenn

I'm a huge, huge baseball fan (though didn't grow up a Rangers fan per se). I've always been a fan of underdog teams. I adpoted the Royals (my wife's team) and the Padres (Tony Gwynn back in the day; Petco is amazing and I always need more excuses to visit SD). We try to see as much college baseball as possible and also attend RoughRiders games.

I was excited to finally live full time in a MLB market when I moved here a decade ago. But I can't shake the feeling that MLB ball in DFW is missing something. I'm not sure what it is, but here are some thoughts. I don't know how you get around them though: the stadium and location issues are baked in at this point.

1. the stadium sucks. It's like watching a baseball game in a masoleum. I went to a nearly sold-out game at Globe Life 2 years ago to see the Royals, and the crowd was as quiet as a mouse. Contrast this with a Padres game (LOUD!) and an important Dodgers game (REALLY LOUD!). The Ballpark was great, but I get that it was more optimal in May/September than in July/August. This new stadium however was a big miss. It feels more like a cash grab than a house for making memories.

2. the stadium is in a terrible location. it isn't a cool downtown location or even an interesting suburban location like the Braves have. We live in Collin Co; forget seeing a game on a weeknight unless you want to spend 90 minutes getting there. Their really is something to "out of sight, out of mind". A downtown Dallas or Frisco stadium would have been far better for fan interest. I doubt that the owners care about creating a fun, winning environment though.

3. the fan base: is there one? DFW has plenty of kids playing baseball but it seems few adults follow the Rangers. I barely know a single person here that does. Unlike in other cities, where it seems that everyone is talking pro ball this time of year. I was just up in Detroit for work: every bar I went into had the Tigers on, and it seemed that you could strike up a convo with any random person and start talking Kevin McGonigle and Tarik Skubal. My Lyft driver only wanted to talk about baseball, as did the client I met with. We're going to a Tigers game the next time I'm in town. Same goes for when I'm in San Diego: it's Padres everywhere, all the time. When is Tatis going to snap out of his funk, and how it will be a day of mourning when Mason Miller's arm falls off. Kansas City is awash in blue this time of year, with Bobby jerseys everywhere.

Maybe this is just a football town? During the WS run 3 years ago, I still heard more Cowboys talk on sports radio than any discussion of the Rangers. But KC seems to do just fine supporting both sports.

4. lack of a legit superstar; it's been awhile. I didn't live here when Beltre was playing, but you didn't hear much about him. Quiet superstar, like Trout. The last time I really heard about Rangers' baseball as a non-local, it's when they had Yu Darvish, and before that, A-Rod. For whatever reason, they don't have the buzz around an elite player. That buzz, even if the player isn't a huge personality, is really important. Even the Guardians have J-Ram doing crazy things, like stealing bases every single game.

5. Market size mismatch: the Rangers seem to occupy a weird place as technically a big-market team that doesn't get the press or play in the big time FA market. When I think of big-market teams, I think of Boston, NYY, NYM, Atlanta, Chi Cubs, Philly, and the Dodgers, with SF, Houston, and Seattle on the fringes. Population-wise, DFW is 4th in MSA size but they punch below their weight. They don't go head to head with the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers for the top FAs. Seager and DeGrom were big signings, but overall they tinker more than take big swings.

6. Team identity. You know immediately what the identity of the Yankees and Dodgers are, between the players that they sign, the players that they develop, and how they play. Same with the Brewers and Rays. The Rangers, OTOH, fall more in line with someone like the Marlins. Not that they are bad, but what is the organization's strategy? Do they have a team identity?

Just looking at The Athletic's pitcher rankings based on advanced metrics, our rotation should be "decent" based on what we've seen this season so far (better than the results we've seen). Stuff+, Location+, Pitching+, health, and the other factors that roll up. Sure, we aren't the Yankees which seemingly have the best rotation in baseball, but Bradish projects as a top #2, Baz and Rogers project as solid #3's, Bassitt as a #4. We lack a true ace and a #5, but it should be a rotation that can keep us in games and is stronger, based on analytics. than teams with better records such as the Cards and Padres.

Rogers is seeing a lot of that regression from last year that wasn't sustainable.

Just to say; all is not yet lost. Our bats need to heat up and losing Westy was a big blow, but we have the pitching to stay in the WC race.

The Yankees, though. Ridiculous. Fried (status TBD) #8, Schittler #9, Rodon #26, Weathers #31, Warren #33. And all but Fried are home grown. That's a WS-winning staff right there and grades out better than the Dodgers (he has Wrobleski projected for a big regression based on metrics).

https://preview.redd.it/h199g6b9pb1h1.png?width=1916&format=png&auto=webp&s=991a57c58c72a436ed23a63203de099f73f43d6b

1. pitching is as advertised. Keeping us in most every game. Losses have been related to scoring issues, not giving up a ton of runs. We are getting quality starts almost every night and solid bullpen holds. It's amazing we are close to .500 and our pitching is a huge reason why.

2. we've massively upgraded our biggest concerns: lack of corner OF production. If we hit for 100 WRC+ this year at the corners instead of 65 WRC+ or whatever we had last year, we are scoring 54 more runs this year if there is no regression elsewhere. That's an additional 7 wins in the Pythagorean expectation model (89). Jac is at 105 WRC+ and Collins at 112 currently, so we are ahead of pace there. And Jac especially could become a stud.

3. I'm not worried about Vinnie: he can be streaky and his underlying numbers suggest around a .710 OPS. Not great for a 1B but holding serve.

4. Carter is in a slump but overall he'll be one of our top 5 hitters and is a great addition, assuming he used part of that signing bonus to buy a functioning alarm clock.

5. I am worried about Salvy. He's swinging at everything off the plate. Any RHP should continue to throw him sweepers and sliders till he starts leaving the bat on his shoulder. Just take those pitches and a walk! I know he's not a burner on the paths, but I'd rather have him on first after a walk vs. back to the dougout with a K or popup. Hopefully this regression isn't permanent; his metrics are terrible. Statcast has him at an expected .654 OPS. That's not gonna cut it and I'm hoping father time didn't catch up with him.

6. Massey at 2B is stopgap at best. His WRC+ is likely around 60: that's far worse than India's 89 last year (which in itself was pretty bad).

7. Junior is gonna Junior. Slow start at the plate statistically and he'd still be a top 6 MVP vote getter if the season ended today. Don't waste him.

Bottom line: if Salvy starts hitting and we can figure out something at 2B (maybe a trade for a Gleyber Torres-type player as we've got no minor league talent that I'm aware of that's MLB ready), we are on a solid path to 90 wins. With decent injury luck, of course. We don't have much talent stashed away at Omaha.