This isn't a memory cycle anymore, and SK Hynix hitting US markets is the next leg
TL;DR: The market keeps pricing memory like a normal boom and bust cycle. It isn't one anymore. HBM is effectively spoken for, margins are running closer to a software business, and the AI buildout has structurally re rated the whole sector. With SK Hynix bringing an ADR to US markets around July 10, US retail finally gets direct access to the name most levered to this.
Positions: 6 shares of MU and a few SanDisk, nothing crazy, just a broke guy trying not to miss the obvious one.
People need to stop screaming top every time Micron pushes higher. Everyone is so traumatized by the old PC and phone cycles that they are ignoring the math staring them in the face. Memory is the layer every AI accelerator has to clear before it can do anything. Every time GOOG, AMD or NVDA spins up a new training cluster, they have to buy HBM, and the supply just is not there.
That supply crunch is the whole story. Management has said HBM capacity is largely booked well ahead, into 2027. That is not speculative hype, it is contracted revenue. When a hardware company starts pulling in gross margins closer to a software business because capacity is spoken for years out, you cannot value it like a cyclical commodity anymore.
SK Hynix is the lead HBM supplier into Nvidia and is arguably more levered to this than Micron. Getting it as a US listed ADR this week opens the whole memory complex up, MU on the DRAM side, plus SanDisk and WDC on the NAND side. Am I crazy for thinking the re rating still has a long way to run, or is it too late in the cycle?