u/Strange_Mud_8239

Suresh comments on the LinkedIn post of Lip Bu Tan (Intel’s CEO)- who also happens to be an early investor in Lumilens!

It’s happening! Behold

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/lip-bu-tan-284a7846_lumilens-emerges-from-stealth-with-more-than-share-7491232974613635072-Mfal/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAACF2vZQBAy6-ypS_1rN2kwBI-U_QFNKgcnA

“Looking forward to great things by the team”

BY THE TEAM

I have been looking at $NOK for a while. My take is pretty simple.

I do not think the Nokia AI story is fake. Actually, I think there is a real reason the market is re-rating the stock.

This is not the old "Nokia phone company" anymore. Today Nokia is more about telecom infrastructure, optical networks, IP networks, AI-RAN, patents, and network connectivity. If AI data centers keep scaling, the need for optical networking, data movement, and high-performance connectivity should keep growing. That part makes sense.

The numbers are real too.

In Q1 2026, Nokia said AI & Cloud customer net sales grew 49% year over year and accounted for 8% of group sales. Nokia also booked EUR 1 billion of AI & Cloud orders in the quarter.

Q1 2026 results:
https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporation-interim-report-for-q1-2026/

And of course, NVIDIA announced a $1 billion investment in Nokia, with the partnership focused on AI-RAN, 5G-Advanced, 6G, and data center networking. That is a serious catalyst, and it explains why the market suddenly wants to look at Nokia differently.

NVIDIA / Nokia partnership:
https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nvidia-and-nokia-to-pioneer-the-ai-platform-for-6g--powering-americas-return-to-telecommunications-leadership/

But here is where I get uncomfortable: price.

At around $16, $NOK is already close to a $90B market cap. I am not saying it cannot go higher. It definitely can, especially if AI infrastructure momentum stays hot. But this no longer looks like a cheap legacy telecom stock with a free AI option attached.

At this price, you are basically betting that:

1. AI & Cloud revenue keeps growing fast;
2. AI & Cloud becomes a much larger part of the company than today's 8%;
3. Optical and IP Networks keep benefiting from AI data center demand;
4. the NVIDIA partnership turns into real revenue, not just a good headline;
5. Q2 results are strong enough to justify the move.

The next earnings date is July 23, 2026.

Nokia financial calendar:
https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporations-financial-calendar-for-2026/

That is my main concern. The stock already feels like it is pricing in a good Q2. If the report is only "good" but not "great", I could easily see a sell-the-news reaction.

For me, the levels look something like this:

$11-13: much better risk/reward
$14-17: fair AI-hype trading range
$18+: more of a momentum trade unless Q2 is really strong

So personally, I am not chasing it here. I am closing the risk for now.

Not because I hate the company. Not because I think the AI networking thesis is fake. I just do not like opening a new position when the stock has already been re-rated and the next catalyst needs to be very clean.

If someone bought much lower, I totally understand holding some into the run-up.
But if you are only looking to enter now, I think the setup is less attractive.

My view:

The $NOK story is real.
The price is no longer cheap.
It may still run into earnings, but the risk/reward is not as clean anymore.
I would rather wait for a pullback or wait for Q2 confirmation.

Not financial advice. Just my reason for stepping aside here.

COMPUTEX 2026 starts soon, and one thing stands out: "Optical Interconnect / Photonics Companies" is now a highlighted AI infrastructure category to watch.

Not a DD. Just an interesting catalyst to keep an eye on as COMPUTEX kicks off. Gonna be an interesting week