I honestly think OD: Knock is dropping in the first half of 2027. What do you think?
Point 1: KJP’s usual marketing timeline Look at the pattern here.
Both DS1 and DS2 launched roughly 1 year and 5 months after we got our first look at actual gameplay.
DS1: Gameplay reveal (June 2018) ➔ Launch (Nov 2019)
DS2: Gameplay reveal (Feb 2024) ➔ Launch (July 2025)
OD: Game play reveal (Sep 2025)
If Kojima sticks to his usual playbook, that lines us up perfectly for a February 2027 release.
Point 2: The scale of the game and KJP's insane dev speed We all know KJP is a powerhouse that churns out massive, polished open-world AAA games in like 3 to 4 years.
But OD is a completely different beast. Kojima himself said it’s more of a smaller, indie-like project with an episodic structure, probably around 5 hours per episode.
If they started full production on Episode 1 (Knock) around 2024, it’s gotta be nearly wrapped by now.
I know some people are gonna say, "But the SAG-AFTRA strike pushed performance capture back to June this year!"
But come on, this is Kojima we're talking about. Back during DS1, they filmed Mads Mikkelsen in August 2016, and this absolute madman already had those exact scenes edited and ready for the Game Awards trailer by December that same year. 4 months!
Since OD is way smaller in scope, post-production for the cutscenes is gonna be a breeze once they wrap filming. So yeah, my money is on a early 2027 launch for Episode 1.