u/TeilwrTenau

Rumours we're about to sign him from MLS side Vancouver Whitecaps. If true, this would be pretty much exactly what I've been asking for in terms of dynamism, intensity and creativity from a deep lying midfielder.

https://www.reddit.com/a/answers/s/HSN884xE5R

His goalscoring and creativity for a DM is phenomenal:

4 goals (xG 2.92 all four goals from outside the box) and 10 assists in 2025, 6 goals (xG 3.4, 3 from out of box) and 4 assists from just 14 games in the MLS in 2026. Above average defensive stats too.

Contract is up at the end of the calendar year, so should be available for a modest fee.

This would be a terrific signing, just from a pure footballing perspective, but being a current USA international (1 goal one assist in World cup) would be of huge marketing benefit.

Really hope this comes off.

Our recruitment of late has one consistent theme - strong defensive stats, whatever the position. This is true of Yeo and, to a slightly lesser extent, Walta. This makes perfect sense, as it's crucial to effecting a high intensity pressing game that you need most, if not all players able to contribute. So far so good.

However, if you look at the key creative metrics of expected assists, chances created and big chances created, Ronald, Widell and Stamenic are all well below average, whilst Franco is average. Even the departing Galbraith was only average, although his stats were impacted by him playing a lot at right back. Only Eom of last year's players was well above average on these three key creative metrics. Walta and Inoussa had good creative stats before they joined us, so hopefully they'll deliver on that promise. Likewise Yeo, who has excellent all round stats.

However, I feel if we're truly ambitious for this season a more creative and dynamic 6, in the Joe Allen mold, should be high on our wish list. Don't get me wrong, Stamenic is decent, but the right 6, alongside Franco and Walta, with Yeo and Eom out wide, could see us challenge for the top two. Caicedo joined Brighton for £4 million, so you never know what bargains Jamestown may be able to identify.

Although the financial regulations are changing from this season I assume PSR will still apply to the financial year just concluded, based on Hull's actions in selling players at the last minute. I would welcome any correction if this assumption is wrong.

How close are we to being in breach of PSR? The deferred purchase of Walta suggests we're pretty close. Also, if you look at the accounts for the past two years our loses after tax were £36 million, £21.5 million of which were in the last year. A generous assumption is that our loss this year will be of the order of £22 million. If so, our three year loss would come to £58 million. That's against a threshold of £41.5 million. Money spent on the academy, women's team and infrastructure can be deducted. If this is £5 million a year then that would put us in breach by £1.5 million.

That figure of £22 million is a total guess, but given that we had a managerial sacking and our player trading was surely down from the £8.1 profit the previous season (did we even make a loss?), then that assumption may be generous. However, Tom Gorringe did make substantial savings of the order of £3.5 million if my memory serves.

If we did in fact, as claimed in some quarters, sell Galbraith for only £5 million up front then the profit would only be £3.6 million. Would that be enough to save our bacon if we're running close to the limit? Selling Galbraith for a meagre fee would be a big disappointment but that would pale into insignificance against a points deduction.

I would welcome any corrections or clarifications to the above. Hopefully my concerns are misplaced, but the delayed Walta signing at the very least points to things being tight.

Left for Man U. Not clear if we received a transfer fee, although if not presumably we will get money for his training development in the academy.

It will be interesting to see what sort of replacement we'll get for Galbraith. Given we have Franco, Widell and Walta fighting for the two 8 positions, with Eom and Ronald perhaps able to play in the position if needed, perhaps we'll be looking at a more mobile 6, or a 6/8 hybrid, a bit like Joe Allen? Stamenic did well for us in his first Championship season, but I feel his position needs to be challenged if we're to seriously challenge at the top of the table.

You better get your skates on if you're serious about signing him. As a Swansea fan I'll be sad to see him go, but as classy as he is, he's not a good fit for Matos' high intensity pressing game. I don't get the impression that Wrexham are a high intensity side, so Galbraith may well be a better fit. He's certainly a class act.

Now we're partnered with Jamestown Analytics we can look forward to the transfer window with something approaching confidence. It's particularly timely as we're very likely to see Vipotnik leave. Galbraith could well move on too, possibly Tymon and even Stamenic. If the first two go we should have £30 million or so in the bank albeit some will have to be set on one side given the nature of our player trading model.

I'll be sad to see Vipotnik and Galbraith leave, but their departures could have the way to us building a squad that's a better fit to Matosball. Brilliant though Vipotnik's finishing and link play is he lacks the pace to allow us to play a high press, or to play balls over the top or through balls. I imagine his replacement will be strong in those areas, especially as, in Idah, we have a similar player to Vipotnik already in house.

We would certainly miss Galbraith's class, but it's also the case his slight build, relative lack of physicality and athleticism is a bit problematic when it comes to our high intensity press. I expect to see a potential Galbraith replacement to have those qualities. It's unlikely they'll be as good on the ball as the full package would cost serious money.

Interesting times to be a Swans fan.

Swans fan here in peace. The Swans have partnered with Jamestown Analytics for the forthcoming season. I was wondering what Ipswich's experience was of your partnership. Was it key to you winning promotion? Any duff signings?

Congratulations on your promotion. Your owner is clearly switched on, and the signs are promising with the Swans ownership in that regard.

Who knows, perhaps we'll be tussling at the top of the Premier league again in the not too distant future, as we were back in the old Division one in the early eighties. One can but dream...

With Rhun ap Iorwerth signalling a need for a road based solution to M4 congestion, what would be a workable alternative to the previously considered routes? He's ruled out the black and blue routes, the latter on the grounds that parts of the route have had housing built on it. I assume that the red and purple routes are also non viable given that they have similar environmental issues to the black route. So, what alternatives are there?

Am I right in thinking that the housing issues relate specifically to the Glan Llyn development? Presumably this impacts on the A4810 part of the blue route.

Could an alternative to the blue route use the A48 exclusively, up to the Coldra junction? Or are there existing or proposed housing developments that could impact on upgrading that road too? Is the Coldra junction too problematic for such a revised route? I have no view on any of this, I'm just curious what solutions people think might be put forward.

It's a really poor show that as far as I can see not a single source has provided a detailed breakdown of how the seats were won, therefore not showing how close a number of contests were.

Take Sir Gaerfyrddin: for the 6th seat the Reform vote share was 32.8 / 3 = 10.93 for Plaid it was 43.1 / 4 = 10.78

For Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg for the 6th seat Labour had 11.6 to Plaid's 11.17

For Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf the Greens had 10.2 to Reform 9.8, Tory 9.6, Lib Dems 9.6

In Casnewydd Islwyn Tory 11.4 Reform 10.97

In Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Reform 11.43 Labour 11.1

In Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg Labour 11.6 Plaid 11.17

In Bangor Mon Conwy Conservative 12.4 Plaid 11.23

In Clwyd Reform 10.77 Labour 10.4

In Fflint Wrecsam Labour 12.2 Reform 12.07

So that's 3 seats Plaid were within half a percentage point of winning. With those 3 extra seats they could have done deals with Lib Dems and Reform (combined).

Reform narrowly win and lost three seats each. Labour 3 narrow wins to 2.

8 constituencies were decided by less than half a percentage point. Slightly fewer than my prediction.

If people want reliable information on which to base a tactical vote then a poll average is probably the best source of info. There are three websites that have published poll of polls:

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/welsh\_polling/senedd\_polling/senedd-2026-seat-calculator

https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/senedd#google\_vignette

https://seneddseatprojector-cymru.cavendishconsulting.com/

The first one has included the two latest polls. It's worth looking at, but I believe (my hunch) that they've used the General Election result as their baseline for the constituency results, as Plaid seems to be too weak in the West and too strong in the East, vice versa for Reform.

The election maps poll of polls seem to me to make more sense, and I'm guessing they've used the previous Senedd election as their baseline. However, they haven't added in the latest two polls. Hopefully that will change later today.

With the Cavendish Consulting calculator you have to input the totals yourself. I put in the following figures from the last 5 poll averages calculated by Pollwatch:

Plaid: 30.0

Reform: 27.6

Labour: 13.6

Tory: 11.2

Greens: 9.6

Lib Dems: 5.2

Other: 3.0

The results are:

Plaid: 38

Reform: 33

Labour: 13

Tories: 8

Greens: 3

Lib Dems: 1

Other: 0

The individual constituency breakdowns are worth looking at. In the West there's everything to play for in terms of Plaid winning 4 and Reform/Tory winning two or a 3/3 split.

I suggest entering the above data and looking at the prediction for your constituency.

Given the absence of constituency level polling, we're left with the Wales wide polling as our best guide to what may be happening in individual constituencies. Not great but better than nothing. Two websites have poll of polls, with constituency projections from them:

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/welsh\_polling/senedd\_polling/senedd-2026-seat-calculator

https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/senedd

The former gives a 1 point lead to Plaid over Reform, the latter a 1.8 point lead, with the same data. The pollcheck projections seem a bit suspect, with modest variation in the support for Reform and Plaid. Plus they project the Tories winning a seat in each of the two Valleys seats, which seems highly unlikely. Electionmaps, in contrast, give a strong east west split, with Plaid winning 4 of 6 seats in the 4 western constituencies, and Reform doing well in eastern Wales, and the Tories not winning a seat in the valleys. This sounds a lot more plausible.

So, using the electionmaps projections are there any seats where there's a clear tactical option for left of centre voters? Both valleys seats offer the greatest clarity. Labour should win one seat comfortably in both Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr and Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni, with the remaining 5 seats going to Reform and Plaid. The Lib Dems are nowhere and the Greens are some way behind Labour. The tactical vote here is clearly for Plaid, as in both constituencies it's a close battle for the third seat out of 5. Whichever party finishes ahead gets three seats and the other gets two. So it's a 2 seat swing between left and right of centre blocs.

Any other suggestions?

HS2 spending to date is estimated at £40.5 billion. The final bill is believed to be over £100 billion, potentially £108 billion.

The Oxford to Cambridge rail link is projected to cost £6.5 billion on completion.

The Northern Powerhouse Rail has been capped at £45 billion, although work is unlikely to start before 2030 and is scheduled for completion by 2045.

What all these projects have in common is that all three have been designated as England and Wales projects, thereby denying Wales consequential funding under the Barnett formula.

Wales' population is 5.2 per cent of the combined England and Wales total. Based on our population share spending to date on HS2 alone should have yielded over £2.1 billion for spending on Welsh rail infrastructure. Once HS2 and the Oxford Cambridge rail line are complete nearly £6 billion would have been available to spend on Welsh railways had those two projects been designated England only projects.

If £45 billion is spent on Northern Powerhouse Rail up to £8.3 billion could have been available for Welsh rail infrastructure up to 2045 had these projects been designated England only.

The fact that the Welsh Labour government chose not to ask for Welsh rail to be devolved was clearly a mistake, but one made for understandable reasons at the time. Clearly the assumption was made that the Westminster government would approach Welsh rail expenditure in a fair minder way. How naive!

For anyone who has Welsh interests at heart this state of affairs is totally indefensible. We have been royally shafted. £8 billion of rail infrastructure spend up to 2045 could be transformational for the Welsh economy. As it is we have crumbs from the master's table. That's what the Union has done for Wales.