At the end of ADWD, both Brynden Tully and Jaime Lannister are missing in the Riverlands, the former having escaped Riverrun and the latter having run off with Brienne of Tarth to "save Sansa Stark from the Hound".

Jaime has perhaps some of the most revered and enjoyable chapters in the last two books, and many fans believe that he is headed on a redemption arc; that he is seeking to become a noble knight by resolving conflicts peacefully and showing mercy to those that he would've fought against if he still had his sword hand.

This was a belief I myself held for most of the ten years I have been on this subreddit. But recently as I re-read some of Jaime's chapters in Feast, and taking into account George's comments about Winds being the "darkest book" of the series, I don't believe Jaime is headed for a redemption arc in Winds - rather, he is on a Tywinifcation arc, and will end Winds as a killer of children, something that his character has come close to doing since the very first book.

The Blackfish and Tytos Blackwood are going to indirectly force Jaime Lannister to keep to his threat to Tytos in the last book, and kill Hoster Blackwood.

Let us begin with an assessment of the Blackfish's likely whereabouts, and how that will force Jaime's hand.

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1. The Blackfish fled to Raventree Hall, not to the Brotherhood without Banners

The popular belief as to where the Blackfish headed after escaping Riverrun is that he is with his undead niece Lady Stoneheart and the Brotherhood without Banners - the theory goes that when Jaime left Edmure alone in his tent with Tom O'Sevens, Tom informed Edmure that Catelyn is alive and told Edmure to send the Blackfish to the Brotherhood's whereabouts.

But I have a hard time believing that Brynden Tully would be so willing to believe that his niece has come back from the dead, especially given the Blackfish we see in AFFC is a hardened man who believes the worst in people to the point that he believes Jon Snow got his position as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch because of a secret plot with the Lannisters;

>"I will permit you to take the black. Ned Stark's bastard is the Lord Commander on the Wall." The Blackfish narrowed his eyes. "Did your father arrange for that as well? Catelyn never trusted the boy, as I recall, no more than she ever trusted Theon Greyjoy. It would seem she was right about them both. No, ser, I think not. I'll die warm, if you please, with a sword in hand running red with lion blood." "Tully blood runs just as red," Jaime reminded him. "If you will not yield the castle, I must storm it. Hundreds will die." - AFFC - JAIME VI

By this point in the series, the Blackfish has become paranoid after having to contend with so many liars - Walder Frey's lies at the Red Wedding, Ryman Frey's lies of preparing to kill Edmure, Jaime's failed vow to return Sansa and Arya, since the Red Wedding the Blackfish has had to deal with dishonourable liars whose word he cannot trust.

It is unlikely that the Blackfish is going to believe the word of Tom O'Sevens, a singer who on the surface is currently seeking favour from the Lannisters;

>"That one up there's a Frey," the singer said, nodding at Lord Emmon, "and this castle seems a nice snug place to pass the winter. Whitesmile Wat went home with Ser Forley, so I thought I'd see if I could win his place. Wat's got that high sweet voice that the likes o' me can't hope to match. But I know twice as many bawdy songs as he does. Begging my lord's pardon." "You should get on famously with my aunt," said Jaime. "If you hope to winter here, see that your playing pleases Lady Genna. She's the one that matters." - AFFC - JAIME VII

If the Blackfish was suspicious enough of Jon Snow despite never meeting him, and has never encountered any form of magic in his life, then its very likely he would be suspicious of Tom O'Sevens and Edmure claiming that Catelyn is back from the dead.

So its doubtful that the Blackfish would readily flee to the supposed whereabouts of the Brotherhood without Banners to reunite with his undead niece when everything we know about his character in ASOIAF is that he is a stern and weathered knight with deep trust issues. If the Blackfish didn't flee to the Brotherhood, then where did he go?

Logically, the Blackfish went to the only safe place left in the Riverrun for a Stark loyalist, ruled by one of the most honourable and trustworthy lords in the Riverrun who was the last to bend the knee to the Lannisters.

The Blackfish fled to Raventree Hall, and has been sheltered by Tytos Blackwood.

This is why George chose to set Jaime's last chapter of the series at Raventree Hall, and build-up a later conflict between Jaime and Tytos Blackwood.

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2. Tytos Blackwood is primed and ready to go back on his word to Jaime

Tytos Blackwood is built up in the series as a man of honour who would never lie;

>"Murdered him, and a dozen good men of my own blood." Lord Jonos turned his head and spat. "Aye, I kept faith with the Young Wolf. As I'll keep faith with you, so long as you treat me fair. I bent the knee because I saw no sense in dying for the dead nor shedding Bracken blood in a lost cause." "A prudent man." Though some might say that Lord Blackwood has been more honorable. "You'll get your lands. Some of them, at least. Since you partly subdued the Blackwoods." - ADWD, JAIME I

But honourable men in ASOIAF are capable of lying, as Ned Stark did with lying that he fathered Jon Snow instead of Rhaegar Targaryen and as Yohn Royce and his family have likely worked out that Alayne Stone is actually Sansa Stark but are not revealing what they know yet.

And as Jaime is told but fails to heed, the pro-Stark lords in the Riverlands may be feigning their fealty to the Iron Throne just as the pro-Stark lords in the North are known to be feigning their fealty to the Iron Throne, like Wyman Manderly;

>"It might have been outlaws," Ser Daven said, when Jaime told the tale, "or not. There are still bands of northmen about. And these Lords of the Trident may have bent their knees, but methinks their hearts are still . . . wolfish." **- AFFC - JAIME V

And even when Jaime outrightly asks Tytos Blackwood if he would actually tell Jaime if he was keeping the Blackfish in Raventree Hall, Tytos refuses to give him an answer and instead toys with Jaime;

>"We agree on that much." Blackwood's voice gave nothing away. "What have you done with Ser Brynden, if I may ask?" "I offered to let him take the black. Instead he fled." Jaime smiled. "Do you have him here, perchance?" "No." "Would you tell me if you did?" It was Tytos Blackwood's turn to smile. Jaime brought his hands together, the gold fingers inside the fleshy ones. "Perhaps it is time we talked of terms." - ADWD - JAIME I

Both Jaime and Tytos smile here because they are obscuring the truth.

Jaime claims the the Blackfish had fled Riverrun as a way to mock him despite his renowned reputation as a knight, however Jaime did not actually want the Blackfish to flee and was furious at Edmure for playing Jaime and allowing the Blackfish time to escape. But Jaime is playing the role of lord here and wants to project strength in front of Tytos like Tywin would, so pretends that he allowed the Blackfish to flee when he didn't.

Tytos is also obscuring the truth here because he intentionally chooses not to answer Jaime at all, and because he knows from the Blackfish that Jaime feels honour-bound to not take up arms against the Tullies and Riverlords because of the vow he made to Catelyn, Tytos knows that Jaime will not dare to push the subject and risk conflict with Tytos.

Tytos Blackwood isn't just a pro-Stark Riverlord - he was the last pro-Stark Riverlord to bend the knee to the Lannisters, and given his buildup as a man of honour and loyalty, Tytos would not have done so lightly.

The Lannisters held no Blackwood hostages against Tytos, nor did they have any leverage to use to threaten Tytos to stand down like Jaime did with Edmure and his unborn child to Roslin, so given everything we know about Tytos Blackwood's sense of honour and inner strength, its hard to imagine him surrendering to the Lannisters so easily as he did in ADWD unless there was an ulterior motive.

Even on the matter of negotiating terms of surrender and which lands to concede to the Brackens, it is Tytos who dictates the terms and not Jaime;

>Lord Tytos considered for a moment. “Woodhedge, Crossbow Ridge, and Buckle.” “A ruin, a ridge, and a few hovels? Come, my lord. You must suffer for your treason. He will want one of the mills, at least.” Mills were a valuable source of tax. The lord received a tenth of all the grain they ground. “Lord’s Mill, then. Grindcorn is ours.” “And another village. Cairns?” “I have forebears buried beneath the rocks of Cairns.” He looked at the map again. “Give him Honeytree and its hives. All that sweet will make him fat and rot his teeth.” “Done, then. But for one last thing.” “A hostage.” - ADWD - JAIME I

As Tytos knows from Blackfish that Jaime is trying to stick to his own ideas of honour, Tytos is able to sway him into agreeing to the terms that Tytos wants.

This situation is remarkably similar to Cersei's negotiations with the High Sparrow; Both Cersei and Jaime desperately seek to prove that they are Tywin's true heir and try to demonstrate their cunningness by negotiating a deal with an unlikely opportunist who then goes on to betray them and reveal the deal as entirely one-sided - In Cersei's case, its the High Sparrow, and in Jaime's case, its Tytos Blackwood. Both Cersei and Jaime seal their own downfalls from power and later humiliations because of their need to prove that they are each Tywin's true heir.

At the end of their parley, Tytos convinces Jaime to agree to Tytos surrendering one of his sons to the crown as a hostage rather than his only daughter.

By this point, Tytos considers Jaime to be a weak fool who has never carried out the threats he has made and has allowed himself to easily agree to his adversary's demands, ironically like Jaime's own namesake Tytos Lannister. Tytos will feel emboldened to continue harbouring the Blackfish as a fugitive in Raventree Hall because he doubts that Jaime will either find out or do anything about it.

So Tytos Blackwood has been built up as one of the most honourable lords who fought for Robb, was the last pro-Stark loyalist to surrender to the Lannisters and yet he was still willing to yield his ancestral castle to the Lannisters despite having no pressing reason to do so.

Why? What has abruptly changed from the Brackens trying to besiege Raventree Hall in AFFC to Tytos surrendering his castle to Jaime in ADWD?

The Blackfish's whereabouts are what changed. Tytos now has the support of the Blackfish and potentially the Brotherhood without Banners to help restart the war against the Iron Throne. That's why Tytos feels so emboldened in pushing Jaime for fairer concessions and why he was finally willing to surrender his castle - because he knows about what is coming.

And what's coming for Jaime will finalise his Tywinfication arc, and let the monster be born.

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3. Why Jaime has to kill Hoster Blackwood in TWOW

By this point, we have concluded that the Blackfish is hiding in Raventree Hall and that Tytos Blackwood intentionally manipulated Jaime about the truth of the Blackfish during their meeting in ADWD.

At the end of that meeting, Jaime threatened to kill one of Tytos' sons should Jaime find out that Tytos is harbouring the Blackfish at Raventree Hall;

>"I am not your friend and I am not your brother." That cleaned the grin off the boy's face. Jaime turned to Lord Tytos. "My lord, let there be no misunderstanding here. Lord Beric Dondarrion, Thoros of Myr, Sandor Clegane, Brynden Tully, this woman Stoneheart … all these are outlaws and rebels, enemies to the king and all his leal subjects. If I should learn that you or yours are hiding them, protecting them, or assisting them in any way, I will not hesitate to send you your son's head. I hope you understand that. Understand this as well: I am not Ryman Frey." "No." All trace of warmth had left Lord Blackwood's mouth. "I know who I am dealing with. Kingslayer." "Good." Jaime mounted and wheeled Honor toward the gate. "I wish you a good harvest and the joy of the king's peace." - ADWD - JAIME I

Jaime is imitating his father's own internal hypocrisy, by riding on a horse named Honor and convincing himself that he is acting as an honourable lord after threatening to behead a young child.

This is the dichotomy that defines Jaime's character in AFFC onwards, and something that many fans get wrong with where Jaime's arc is headed.

Jaime is not on a redemption arc - Jaime is on a Tywinification arc, and every time he has to choose between honour or being more Tywin-like, he either chooses to become more Tywin-like or is able to escape making that choice completely.

This arc began when Tyrion revealed the truth about Cersei's adultery and lied about killing Joffrey;

>"You have not answered my question." "You poor stupid blind crippled fool. Must I spell every little thing out for you? Very well. Cersei is a lying whore, she's been fucking Lancel and Osmund Kettleblack and probably Moon Boy for all I know. And I am the monster they all say I am. Yes, I killed your vile son." He made himself grin. It must have been a hideous sight to see, there in the torchlit gloom. Jaime turned without a word and walked away - ASOS - TYRION XI

This moment has haunted Jaime throughout AFFC as he remembers Tyrion's words about Cersei repeatedly, and coupled with Tyrion's later murder of Tywin, led to Jaime seeking to no longer be taken for a fool by anyone.

Not wanting to be taken for a fool is what drives him to make the decision to abandon Cersei after receiving her letter in his last AFFC chapter;

>"No, my lord. The bird was from King's Landing. I took the liberty . . . I did not know . . ." He held the letter out. Jaime read it in the window seat, bathed in the light of that cold white morning. Qyburn's words were terse and to the point, Cersei's fevered and fervent. Come at once, she said. Help me. Save me. I need you now as I have never needed you before. I love you. I love you. I love you. Come at once. Vyman was hovering by the door, waiting, and Jaime sensed that Peck was watching too. "Does my lord wish to answer?" the maester asked, after a long silence. A snowflake landed on the letter. As it melted, the ink began to blur. Jaime rolled the parchment up again, as tight as one hand would allow, and handed it to Peck. "No," he said. "Put this in the fire." - AFFC - JAIME VII

All of Jaime's actions and decisions post-ASOS are driven by his desire to be more like his father and not be taken for a fool, as he believes Cersei and Tyrion have taken Jaime for a fool his whole life. It is this desire to not be taken for a fool that will make Jaime snap in the next book and kill Hoster Blackwood, after learning that Tytos Blackwood had in fact been harbouring the Blackfish in Raventree Hall.

Jaime's desire to not want to be taken for a fool leads to him making numerous threats throughout AFFC and ADWD that some fans believe he did not intend to act upon, however the text disagrees;

>The last day of their journey was cold and gusty. The wind rattled amongst the branches in the bare brown woods and made the river reeds bow low along the Red Fork. Even mantled in the winter wool of the Kingsguard, Jaime could feel the iron teeth of that wind as he rode beside his cousin Daven. It was late afternoon when they sighted Riverrun, rising from the narrow point where the Tumblestone joined the Red Fork. The Tully castle looked like a great stone ship with its prow pointed downriver. Its sandstone walls were drenched in red-gold light, and seemed higher and thicker than Jaime had remembered. This nut will not crack easily, he thought gloomily. If the Blackfish would not listen, he would have no choice but to break the vow he'd made to Catelyn Stark. The vow he'd sworn his king came first. - AFFC - JAIME V

Jaime considers this before beginning the siege of Riverrun, and near its conclusion, voices his willingness to break those vows completely, for the sake of keeping his word and proving himself as his father's true heir;

>Edmure raised his hands from the tub and watched the water run between his fingers. "And if I will not yield?" Must you make me say the words? Pia was standing by the flap of the tent with her arms full of clothes. His squires were listening as well, and the singer. Let them hear, Jaime thought. Let the world hear. It makes no matter. He forced himself to smile, "You've seen our numbers, Edmure. You've seen the ladders, the towers, the trebuchets, the rams. If I speak the command, my coz will bridge your moat and break your gate. Hundreds will die, most of them your own. Your former bannermen will make up the first wave of attackers, so you'll start your day by killing the fathers and brothers of men who died for you at the Twins. The second wave will be Freys, I have no lack of those. My westermen will follow when your archers are short of arrows and your knights so weary they can hardly lift their blades. When the castle falls, all those inside will be put to the sword. Your herds will be butchered, your godswood will be felled, your keeps and towers will burn. I'll pull your walls down, and divert the Tumblestone over the ruins. By the time I'm done no man will ever know that a castle once stood here." Jaime got to his feet. "Your wife may whelp before that. You'll want your child, I expect. I'll send him to you when he's born. With a trebuchet." Silence followed his speech. Edmure sat in his bath. Pia clutched the clothing to her breasts. The singer tightened a string on his harp. Little Lew hollowed out a loaf of stale bread to make a trencher, pretending that he had not heard. With a trebuchet, Jaime thought. If his aunt had been there, would she still say Tyrion was Tywin's son? - AFFC - JAIME VI

At first, Jaime feels uncomfortable about having to make this speech and forces himself to smile, but at the end of it he relishes in the thought of being more like Tywin's true son than Tyrion.

These are not the thoughts and actions of a man headed on a 'redemption' arc as many fans believe, but a man who has set himself up for a very high fall and will eventually have to follow through with his threats if he wishes to be taken as seriously as his father was.

Some fans believe that a character like Jaime does not have it in him to kill an innocent child like Hoster Blackwood, but both Bran and Arya Stark would disagree, the former who Jaime pushed from a tower to his death in AGOT and the latter who Jaime wanted to kill after her direwolf bit Joffrey;

>"Do you see that window, ser?" Jaime used a sword to point. "That was Raymun Darry's bedchamber. Where King Robert slept, on our return from Winterfell. Ned Stark's daughter had run off after her wolf savaged Joff, you'll recall. My sister wanted the girl to lose a hand. The old penalty, for striking one of the blood royal. Robert told her she was cruel and mad. They fought for half the night . . . well, Cersei fought, and Robert drank. Past midnight, the queen summoned me inside. The king was passed out snoring on the Myrish carpet. I asked my sister if she wanted me to carry him to bed. She told me I should carry her to bed, and shrugged out of her robe. I took her on Raymun Darry's bed after stepping over Robert. If His Grace had woken I would have killed him there and then. He would not have been the first king to die upon my sword . . . but you know that story, don't you?" He slashed at a tree branch, shearing it in half. "As I was fucking her, Cersei cried, 'I want.' I thought that she meant me, but it was the Stark girl that she wanted, maimed or dead." The things I do for love. "It was only by chance that Stark's own men found the girl before me. If I had come on her first . . ." The pockmarks on Ser Ilyn's face were black holes in the torchlight, as dark as Jaime's soul. He made that clacking sound. - AFFC - JAIME IV

Fans may say that Jaime was only willing to harm both of these children out of his love for Cersei, and that is indisputably true. However, just as love can be a powerful force in influencing Jaime's actions, so too can hate and guilt over Tyrion's deception influence his killing of Hoster Blackwood, who coincidentally reminds Jaime of Tyrion;

>"Five hundred years before the Andals. A thousand, if the True History is to be believed. Only no one knows when the Andals crossed the narrow sea. The True History says four thousand years have passed since then, but some maesters claim that it was only two. Past a certain point, all the dates grow hazy and confused, and the clarity of history becomes the fog of legend." Tyrion would like this one. They could talk from dusk to dawn, arguing about books. For a moment his bitterness toward his brother was forgotten, until he remembered what the Imp had done. "So you are fighting over a crown that one of you took from the other back when the Casterlys still held Casterly Rock, is that the root of it? The crown of a kingdom that has not existed for thousands of years?" He chuckled. "So many years, so many wars, so many kings … you'd think someone would have made a peace." - ADWD - JAIME I

Hoster Blackwood's own fate is foreshadowed in the bolded excerpt - In this chapter, Jaime forgets his bitterness and hatred of the Blackwoods, until he eventually remembers the treason they will commit in the next book with the Blackfish.

Cleverly on George's part, Hoster then ends the conversation about the history of the Blackwoods and the Brackens with this ominous observation from Tytos;

>Someone did, my lord. Many someones. We've had a hundred peaces with the Brackens, many sealed with marriages. There's Blackwood blood in every Bracken, and Bracken blood in every Blackwood. The Old King's Peace lasted half a century. But then some fresh quarrel broke out, and the old wounds opened and began to bleed again. That's how it always happens, my father says. So long as men remember the wrongs done to their forebears, no peace will ever last. So we go on century after century, with us hating the Brackens and them hating us. My father says there will never be an end to it." - ADWD - JAIME I

This excerpt is a perfect parallel of Jaime's attempts at forging a peace in the Riverlands and the eventual collapse of it by Blackwood hands.

Jaime's fragile peace in the Riverlands parallels the "Old King's peace" that existed until another quarrel breaks out opening "old wounds" because Stoneheart and the Riverlords remember "the wrongs done to their forebearers" and Tytos Blackwood will be right at the centre making sure "there is never an end to it."

After Tywin's death, readers see that all three of Tywin's children are haunted by a certain phrase that drives them to commit morally cruel and dark acts that will eventually come to cause them dire consequences in the coming books.

For Cersei, its Maggy the Frog's prophecy about a Younger Queen, which drives Cersei to remilitarise the Faith Militant and have Margaery arrested on false charges, the former which Cersei does believing that it is a shrewd political move that her father would have approved of. It then leads to her own downfall and humiliation.

For Tyrion, its the constant repetition of Tywin saying "Wherever whores go...". It sets Tyrion on a nihilistic path in ADWD that leads him to counsel fAegon to go west instead of east and conquer Westeros before Tyrion's family have a chance to rebuild in Tywin's absence to deal with such a powerful threat as fAegon's forces. Tyrion's actions will likely lead to his family's downfall and deaths.

For Jaime, its Tyrion's revelation about Cersei's adultery. Whereas Cersei and Tyrion's haunting past comments have already pushed them to commit dark deeds that will come to bring them despair, this has yet to happen for Jaime.

In Jaime's case, I believe it will happen when Jaime learns the truth about the Blackwoods harbouring the Blackfish in Raventree Hall, with potentially the Brotherhood revealed to have been orchestrating a coup against the Lannisters in the Riverlands right under Jaime's nose without him knowing.

And, like Tywin hating anyone laughing at him, Jaime will remember Tyrion's comments about Jaime being a fool and lash out at those who have treated him like a fool, pushing him to commit the dark deed of killing Hoster Blackwood and proving that he is no fool - for only a fool makes a threat they do not wish to carry out;

>The man reddened. "My lord grandfather . . . if we hang the man we have no hostage, ser. Have you considered that?" "Only a fool makes threats he's not prepared to carry out. If I were to threaten to hit you unless you shut your mouth, and you presumed to speak, what do you think I'd do?" "Ser, you do not unders—" Jaime hit him. It was a backhand blow delivered with his golden hand, but the force of it sent Ser Ryman stumbling backward into the arms of his whore. "You have a fat head, Ser Ryman, and a thick neck as well. Ser Ilyn, how many strokes would it take you to cut through that neck?" - AFFC - JAIME VI

Jaime carried out the threat he made against Ser Ryman because he is no fool, and will carry out the threat he made against Hoster Blackwood because he is determined to prove he is no fool.

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4. Epilogue - Jaime's trigger point

There is significant build-up to Jaime resorting to kill Hoster Blackwood in retaliation for Tytos Blackwood harbouring the Blackfish at Raventree Hall. But there has to be a trigger point, a major event in the Riverlands, involving the Blackwoods and the Blackfish that causes so much chaos and conflict for Jaime that forces his hand.

A recurring plot format that George has used in the last two books is having his POV characters work to build a fragile fiefdom to rule over, compromising on who they are as people and collaborating with individuals they do not like in order to keep the peace and the people they are ruling over alive.

George has done this with the following POV characters;

• Jon Snow - Spent the last book as Lord Commander working to build a peace between the Night's Watch, Free Folk and Queensmen. Did things he didn't like doing like the baby swap, taking the Free Folk's children as hostages and sending his closest friends away, but sought to rule with an iron fist and did what he believed to be right to keep everyone alive. Died at the end of ADWD and that fragile peace will soon be shattered thanks to the Pink Letter.

• Daenerys - Spent the last book as ruler of Meereen, working to build a peace with the freed slaves, sellswords, and Ghiscari nobles like Hizdahr. Did things she didn't like doing like marrying Hizdahr, reopening the fighting pits and locking her dragons away, but sought to rule with an iron fist and did what she believed to be right to keep everyone alive. Got taken out of Meereen by Drogon and the fragile peace she built was shattered with the Masters of Yunkai declaring war on Meereen.

• Cersei - Spent AFFC as de facto ruler of King's Landing, working to build a flimsy peace with her supporters, the Tyrells and the Faith Militant. Did things she didn't like doing like letting so many of the Tyrells live, appointing Harys Swyft as Hand as a sort of protection from Kevan and sending women to become Qyburn's experiments which she would later feel uneasy about, but sought to rule with an iron fist and did what she believed to be right to keep everyone herself alive. Was removed from rule for a whole book by the Faith Militant and the fragile peace she presided over was shattered in her absence thanks to the Faith Militant and Varys.

• Tyrion - Though not in the last two books, Tyrion spent ACOK as de facto ruler of King's Landing. Tyrion spent ACOK working to build a flimsy peace with people he didn't trust on the Small Council, most of whom Tyrion didn't trust or like. Did things Tyrion didn't like doing like sending Myrcella to Dorne, trusting in Littlefinger to go to Bitterbridge, trusting Varys with Shae and threatening to harm Tommen to Cersei, but sought to rule with an iron fist and did what he believed to be right to keep everyone alive. Got put into a coma and had his rule removed by Tywin, and the fragile peace Tyrion built was eventually destroyed by Joffrey's death and blamed on Tyrion.

Its a recurring narrative tactic George uses - show what kind of person his POV characters are by giving them the power to rule and make difficult choices, then remove them from that environment and have them later return to witness the destruction and learn from their mistakes, for better or worse.

George has done this same tactic with Jaime - had Jaime spent the last two books building a very fragile peace in the Riverlands, did things he didn't feel good about like threatening to kill Edmure's unborn child and killing Hoster Blackwood, but did it because he believed it necessary to force the Riverlords into submission, and as of the last book has been missing for some considerable time after running off with Brienne.

Like the above aforementioned POV characters, Jaime will eventually escape his confinement from the Brotherhood without Banners in TWOW and return to witness the destruction of the fragile peace he worked to build in the Riverlands, with this trauma changing Jaime considerably for the worst.

A Red Wedding 2.0 event is very popular among fans, and believed to be the key event in the Riverlands storyline in Winds that may be Jaime's trigger point in making him snap and kill Hoster Blackwood;

>When Jaime had taken his leave of Lady Amerei, she had been weeping softly at the dissolution of her marriage whilst letting Lyle Crakehall console her. Her tears had not troubled him half so much as the hard looks on the faces of her kin as they stood about the yard. "I hope you do not intend to take vows as well, coz," he said to Daven. "The Freys are prickly where marriage contracts are concerned. I would hate to disappoint them again." Ser Daven snorted. "I'll wed and bed my stoat, never fear. I know what happened to Robb Stark. From what Edwyn tells me, though, I'd best pick one who hasn't flowered yet, or I'm like to find that Black Walder has been there first. I'll wager he's had Gatehouse Ami, and more than thrice. Maybe that explains Lancel's godliness, and his father's mood." - AFFC - JAIME V

A major enough event like this is bound to happen in what George has called "the darkest book" of the series, and Lady Stoneheart has to deliver both a memorable and crucial enough moment in the plot for George to justify her resurrection, given George has been on record to say he doesn't enjoy bringing characters back from the dead unless it has a worthy enough narrative payoff.

A major enough event that destroys the fragile peace Jaime built in the Riverlands and results in the losses of those he cares about like Genna and Daven Lannister because of those he showed mercy to like the Tullies and Blackwoods would in an ironic sense send Jaime into a similar kind of bloody breakdown that Catelyn had with Jinglebell Frey moments before her death;

>A man in dark armor and a pale pink cloak spotted with blood stepped up to Robb. "Jaime Lannister sends his regards." He thrust his longsword through her son's heart, and twisted. Robb had broken his word, but Catelyn kept hers. She tugged hard on Aegon's hair and sawed at his neck until the blade grated on bone. Blood ran hot over her fingers. His little bells were ringing, ringing, ringing, and the drum went boom doom boom. - ASOS - CATELYN VII

Jaime would not be the first character in ASOIAF to kill an innocent person in a rage of grief after the death of someone he cared deeply for, as Catelyn Stark did so with Aegon 'Jinglebell' Frey and Loras Tyrell did so with Ser Robar Royce in ACOK after Renly's death.

Both Catelyn and Loras were considered far more honourable than Jaime across the series, and neither had expressed a willingness to kill a child like Jaime has more than once, meaning it is well within Jaime to commit a truly dark deed like killing Hoster Blackwood in a red rage of grief after a Red Wedding 2.0 that claims the lives of Genna and Daven Lannister.

Indeed, the very last conversation Jaime ever has with Hoster Blackwood alludes to him seeking to kill the son of a lord seeking vengeance upon Jaime, in this case Tytos Blackwood seeking vengeance on Jaime for his apparent role in the Red Wedding and Jaime having to keep his vow and kill Hoster for it;

>"So we go on century after century, with us hating the Brackens and them hating us. My father says there will never be an end to it." "There could be." "How, my lord? The old wounds never heal, my father says." "My father had a saying too. Never wound a foe when you can kill him. Dead men don't claim vengeance." "Their sons do," said Hoster, apologetically. "Not if you kill the sons as well. Ask the Casterlys about that if you doubt me. Ask Lord and Lady Tarbeck, or the Reynes of Castamere. Ask the Prince of Dragonstone." For an instant, the deep red clouds that crowned the western hills reminded him of Rhaegar's children, all wrapped up in crimson cloaks. "Is that why you killed all the Starks?" "Not all," said Jaime. "Lord Eddard's daughters live. One has just been wed. The other …" Brienne, where are you? Have you found her? "… if the gods are good, she'll forget she was a Stark. She'll wed some burly blacksmith or fat-faced innkeep, fill his house with children, and never need to fear that some knight might come along to smash their heads against a wall." "The gods are good," his hostage said, uncertainly. You go on believing that. Jaime let Honor feel his spurs. - ADWD - JAIME I

This whole conversation is a perfect epitome of Jaime's internal conflict and why he will have to kill Hoster.

Jaime is the one who initially pushes for peace until Hoster invokes his father Tytos and the way he is, and Jaime instinctively reverts to his Tywin-esque persona and talks of killing his foes and their sons. As soon as Tytos gets brought up in the conversation, all hopes of peace are shattered and Jaime concedes with the necessity of killing the sons of rebellious foes like his father Tywin did.

But Jaime doesn't want Hoster to expect it, so peddles the lie that both Stark daughters are alive, when in fact the one Jaime claims to have "just been wed" is not a Stark, and both Stark girls are being hunted by different search parties.

The text of Jaime's last few chapters all point towards him eventually having to keep his vow of killing Hoster Blackwood. When a Red Wedding 2.0 type of event happens and Jaime realises it is the result of him being fooled by the likes of the Blackfish and Tytos Blackwood, Jaime will hear his brother Tyrion laughing at him, calling him a fool, and in his grief, Jaime will lash out and kill the Blackwood boy who reminds him of Tyrion.

Jaime will kill the boy, and let the monster be born.

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TLDR:

Jaime Lannister is going to kill Hoster Blackwood in TWOW after discovering that his father, Tytos Blackwood, has in fact been hiding the Blackfish at Raventree Hall, which Jaime threatened him against or risk his son's execution.

Raventree Hall was the only pro-Stark stronghold left in the Riverlands after the Blackfish fled Riverrun. It is the most logical place for the Blackfish to retreat to, and everything we've been shown about the Blackfish's paranoia and distrusting ways post Red Wedding means he is very unlikely to believe Tom O'Sevens about Catelyn being alive and with the Brotherhood.

Tytos Blackwood had no real reason to surrender to Jaime in ADWD given he had enough provisions and kicked the non-necessary men out of Raventree Hall before Jaime arrived. The only reason an honourable and cunning man like Tytos would go through with surrendering his ancestral home and conceding lands to his mortal enemies - the Brackens - is if there was a secret plan at play, with the Blackfish at the heart of it.

Jaime isn't having a redemption arc in the last two books - he's having a Tywnification arc and is determined to prove he is no fool by being willing to carry out the threats he makes. Eventually, he has to be pushed to keep his word.

In grief and despair, a broken Jaime will slay Hoster Blackwood after Red Wedding 2.0 claims the lives of his aunt Genna and cousin Daven, and going through the same trauma that Catelyn went through with Robb's death will be Stoneheart's revenge on him.

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Thanks for reading, if you enjoyed this theory be sure to read some of my other theories below;

The inevitable fight to the death between Mance and Jon

Littlefinger is the benefactor and funder of the Faith Militant

Jaime will be fAegon's Kingmaker

Leyton Hightower is the current Lord of Light

All the signs that Tywin definitely gave the order

2025 archive of ASOIAF theories available at the bottom of this post

2024 archive of ASOIAF theories available at the bottom of this post

2023 archive of ASOIAF theories available at the bottom of this post

2022 archive of ASOIAF theories available at the bottom of this post