Prediction: Puget Sound region and rest of WA state economy is heading into a recession
As a real estate agent I see housing activity but also talk to 100s of people and have visibility in the local employment scene and its DIRE. Everyone from software engineers to school teachers, daycare workers, doctors and nurses and insurance agents and retail service execs work with us and our firm for house purchases and sales and last 6 weeks this is what's happening.
- With gas and diesel prices up because of the Iran war (thanks trump), many are pulling out of offers, continuing to rent, or planning to move out of WA state.
- Teachers and other employees in education no longer make enough to sustain their lifestyle. Driving to a Redmond school with high gas prices, high insurance, high rents and property taxes is no longer a viable option without a 20% salary bump.
- Higher middle class folks are complaining about grocery prices impacting their wallets and disposable income.
- 1000s of tech employees are unemployed for 6+ months, running out of unemployment and worried about their future.
- 1000s of tech employees on work visa who have lost jobs are running out of time and planning to pack up and go back to their home country (in the world of real estate this is a very clear and tangible trend since May).
- Plumbers, electricians, landscapers, blinds installers- you name it- have increased their visit fees by $20-$30 because of the higher burden from gas and diesel gas spikes.
Don't forget that before the attack on Iran, things were quite rosy in our area. Fuel costs impact everything. Not to mention the 35 cents per gallon carbon tax that WA states adds in addition to the gas tax. Voters had a chance to overturn the carbon tax in 2024 but chose to continue it.
Our firm also has market data across other segments of the local economy and are seeing a dramatic breakdown since early August across all growth trends.
Thanks Trump and thanks to everyone who voted for him.
Since Trump Took Office:
Gas +39%
Diesel +69%
Utilities +15%
Jet fuel +100%
Health care +13%
Ground beef +25%
Elon Wealth: +122%
Wall Street Profits +22%
CEO Pay: +14%
Real Wages: +.5%
Trump Wealth: Doubled.
Trump Cabinet: 8 members worth $100M+
Do you fucking get it yet?