u/WayOk4546

So, the three people I ranked as most safe all somehow managed to win immunity AND someone in Severe Risk was voted out AND I was right that Benji joined Nura/Oliwia? Damn, I cooked good with that last prediction. Initially I thought "am I going too far putting the entire performance trio in No Risk?" but I'm so glad I ignored that voice in the back of my head. I have enough voices in my head, thank you very much.

But more importantly, someone from Cyan finally bit the dust. It has been a LOOOONG time coming, but now that one of them is gone we're getting closer to a worthy Final 10. Sucks that we lost the best member of that alliance though. There's just one (out of two) more person that needs to be cut for that to happen. And if you've been reading my predictions for the past several episodes, you know damn well who I'm talking about.

NO RISK

LAKE - Moves UP from Moderate Risk. With Rosa's elimination, Lake gets the eliminated friend boost she needed. I think out of all the Season 1 and 2 characters, Lake is far and away the most likely to make it to the Final 4. And with her being the last Gen 2 character standing, she is probably safe until we get to Episode 20 at least. Let's just hope she puts aside her terrible conflict with Spencer, because she's becoming worse with each episode.

BENJI - No Change. Remember how we all thought Benji was going to take down Jade after the Team Swap in CoC. Yeah, this is what we were expecting from him instead of dump truck ass man. He is now in the power position for the next elimination and I see no reason why he would go right now after starting two new dynamics with Nura and Oliwia. As for Schrodinger's Idol, as far as I'm concerned, if by Episode 19 (which appears to be an auction Episode) we haven't been introduced to a new idol, I'm going to assume Benji will be using one of the idol halves. We only had a single idol play in Episode 6. Sorry, but ONC doesn't have the self-control to not have an idol play for 20 full episodes. Or go an entire season without one being used successfully. I was honestly surprised one didn't get played during either season of TomJake.

"Jake, do you take Tom to be your husband."

"I do."

"And Tom, do you take Jake to be your husband."

"Iiiiiiiii am going to play my idol."

*Weird Route jingle plays

"Alright, Jake I've tallied the votes-"

"WHAT VOTES?"

"-and it appears you will be marrying Hunter."

"But I'm supposed to marry- wait, Hunter, do you still have your remake personality, but your All-Stars body?"

"Yeah..."

"Okay, I'm fine with this arrangement. Tom have fun in Fans vs Favorites."

I think I got sidetracked, but you get the point. Benji is safe.

SPENCER - No Change. He received the second highest number of votes, which almost always coincides with not getting eliminated in the subsequent episodes. Benji and Natalia's alliances aren't going to target him right now. And Lake can't really afford to get rid of him now. Plus, with his store-brand AleHeather dynamic with Sam having yet to reach its apex, I don't see him going next episode.

SAM - No Change. He's getting dangerously close to falling out of this tier for the first time all season. He has no power in the game and he's just added Natalia and Fiore to his haters list, and now that they're in the majority with the rest of the Fans, he's in a tough spot going forward. Especially considering he has no true allies. His relationship with Spencer and the need for more exposition from him is enough to keep him here for this episode, but there's a decent chance he falls into Mild Risk after next episode. Also, bro lost a puzzle contest to a child. His coworkers are never going to let him live that down.

MILD RISK

NURA - No Change. She and Oliwia are right on the edge of Mild and No Risk, but I'm going to air on the side of caution and keep them here for now. The new dynamic with Benji is a good boost to her odds and they make a good duo. And while I'm at it, her more recent dynamics have made her significantly more likeable to me. Crazy how her worst dynamic this season has been Dunia (boo all you want, you know I'm right)

OLIWIA - No Change. Similar to Nura, I'm fairly confident Oliwia survives Episode 17. She's like a capybara, no serious natural enemies, but anyone could get rid of her at anytime. After 17 is when things will get dicey for her. Especially if Tom/Gabby goes. But for now, the Benji/ Natalia deal should keep her safe. And Oliwia . . . while you've grown on me, you are not the victim in the Ren dynamic. You eliminated his friend and he got mad for a few hours. You are an adult. Get over it.

REN - Moves DOWN from No Risk. And now we reach the bottom five. AKA Natalia and her friends. Fortunately for Ren, he's connected far more to Fiore than Natalia. And with that dynamic still being so new, I'm doubtful he will be leaving next. Also "Demon Child" is overused. Cute the first two times and was a nice callback at the merge, but like most jokes ONC finds funny, they never know when to let it go.

FIORE - Moves DOWN from No Risk. I really enjoyed having her high in No Risk. But good things can't last forever. Fiore had a great episode. She came in clutch and won immunity for her alliance, she put Sam in his place and she was on the right side of the vote. And due to Benji, she is positioned to survive the next elimination. However, that's contingent on everything going according to plan. Which is rarely ONC's MO. Often a good performance can precede an elimination. But in Fiore's case, her dynamic with Ren still being so new is enough for me to keep her out of Moderate Risk.

MODERATE RISK

NATALIA - Moves DOWN from NO RISK. The drama queen has switched places with Lake. Going from the most safe to bottom 3. Yikes. As I've said with Fiore and Ren, Natalia should be safe if everything with Benji goes as planned. However, with Benji setting his sights on Tom, I'm doubtful Natalia will simply let that play out. If she's going to use her fake idol, my guess is now is the time. She could attempt to use it to persuade Benji to target someone other than Tom, only for Benji to realize it's a fake. How Benji will respond is up in the air, but if I had to guess, one of Gomtalia is doomed. Natalia is obviously the safest of the three due to her presence in the game, but after getting rid of Rosa and being the third wheel in her alliance, I'm not ruling out the idea that now is her time. Also, she'd be eliminated in Episode 17 just like CoC. On another note, Natalia has now lasted until at least Episode 17 in 2 seasons until she received a single vote. A feat no one else comes close to.

SEVERE RISK

TOM - No Change. WHAT? Tom in Severe Risk? Now THAT'S an original thought, huh? Okay, I know it's repetitive, but Benji called him out by name as his next target to eliminate and he has the numbers. What exactly am I supposed to do? For the Tom fan out there, take solace in the fact that him being called out by name makes me less inclined to think he'll go than if Benji had been more subtle.

GABBY - No Change. My lists feel like a jenga tower. For the most part, after a block is removed, not to much changes. But with Tom and Gabby once one of them leaves the whole thing will fall apart and we'll have to start from scratch. Tons of characters who are constantly in the upper tiers will move lower, one of Tom/Gabby will get to be in the higher tiers for a bit. It'll be far more exciting putting these lists together instead of the tired "Tom and Gabby are at risk of leaving this time." shtick I've been doing for who knows how long now. But seriously, who else could it be this time if not Tom/Gabby. I feel like everyone in the upper two tiers has a valid reason to stay, and while I think there's some real risk for Natalia, she is still a major character this season. We also haven't lost a DC1 character since Episode 5. We are long past due for an elimination. I should probably say something about Gabby while I'm at it. She . . . is bad at puzzles. Is there anything hinting that it should be Gabby going next episode? Not really, but we could have said the same for Ally and Bruno and Ernesto. If ONC wants someone gone, they'll think up a contrivance to justify it.

CONTENDERS.

No big shakeups from last time since Rosa didn't have a chance of winning. I'll bump Lake ahead of Spencer, but she stays in the same tier. Not enough for me to consider her a serious contender yet.

Benji: Oh no, I forgot deodorant. I hope I don't smell bad.

Amelie: What is that foul odor?

Hannah: Soon. My hunger will be satiated. I shall lift the spirits of those in this contest only to savor the taste more when their hopes abscond in a resounding defeat. Their broken souls will be my sustenance as I return to the void from which I came and slumber for another millennia. For next when I rise they shall beg me for death, as life will become a form of suffering beyond comprehension.

(She didn't stop thinking, but i got scared and left when she started thinking in a language that made my nose bleed.)

Tristan: Man, I wish I had the skin tone to pull off that shade of green.

Ivy: Don't look at his abs. Don't look at his abs. Don't look at his abs.

Zaid: That one looks like some shallots. Ooo, that's gotta be rigatoni. Those could be basil and some tomatoes. Looks like I'm making one hell of an imaginary Italian dish. God, I'm so hungry.

Diego: Ahhhh, he's so dreamy. I've got a good feeling about him. I wonder how he's going to react when I tell him I've already written our wedding vows?

Spencer: Fuck, is he looking at me? I swear I'll get rid of him if he tries something. Then I won't ever need to worry about any relationship drama on this show again.

Jade: Spencer, if you eliminate him I'll drown you. And Zaid, every cloud looks like fucking shallots and rigatoni. Yeah, that's right, I can read minds too. Including yours. Why are you repressing the ending of this season? Hey wait, do I win? Get back here!

Well, well, well. Look at who was right about Benji coming back. You can go ahead and pick up the phone, cause I fucking called it.

. . .

What's that? All of you saw it coming from a mile away and I'm coming off as a huge jackass with all of my self-aggrandizement. Oh...

Well, uh, I guess I'll get started with my list then. Not to many changes since the non-losers weren't in the episode.

NO RISK

NATALIA - No Change. Still the safest person in the game due to having the most dynamics and her dead idol plot that needs to be played out. I do think Benji returning could hurt her odds moving forward, but for this episode at the very least I don't see her going anywhere. Similar to Nura with Ara, one of Gom is almost certainly going home before she does.

FIORE - No Change. Received votes in the previous elimination and started a new dynamic with Ren that is an interteam dynamic. These pairings usually have decent legs in DC (Ana/Zaid, Isabel/Jade, Logan/ Spencer, Riya/Rosa) so I'm doubtful either goes for a while. Also, Fiore can now throw knives. Nuns beware.

REN - No Change. Basically the same as Fiore. I do think eventually one of the Nat/Fiore/Ren trio is going to fall off a cliff in terms of likelihood soon, but all three have enough going on that they all feel untouchable right now. If I had to guess, probably Fiore with Natalia as a strong second choice due to Benji returning.

SAM - No Change. Was betraying Cyan dumb? Yes. But he's still the main villain and we all know that awards him a degree of plot armor. He doesn't really have enough power in the game to realistically be targeted over Cyan or the Peak Trio (Nat/Fiore/Ren cause they need a name and it fits.) He'll play the swing vote for now and probably stay in this tier until Final 6 or something.

BENJI - Moves UP from Eliminated. I hope you're sitting down for this. Actually, no, go for a walk. Get some fresh air while you read. Unless you're in Arizona, cause then you'll melt. Benji will likely have a grace period of at least one episode since his return was given so much weight. I know Karol got screwed over, but her circumstances were significantly different. My best guess is that Benji allies with Nura and Oliwia since they are able to play as swing votes and that was the niche that Benji found for himself when he was working with Ally. But beyond that, we should address the elephant in the room (NO EMILY DON'T SHOOT!) The idol. The return episode did not give any clarification to Benji's idol. That means currently, there are 3 options: 1. Benji still has his old idol half which should now be live due to Ally no longer being in the game. But ONC is choosing to hide that fact for a surprise reveal. 2. The idol half that Natalia is in possession of can be used so long as Benji is the one that plays it. 3. Both idol halves are inactive and cannot be validly played. My guess is that one of the first two options are most likely since I doubt ONC will go a full season without a successful idol play. But it does mean Benji will be a massive headache for me when it comes to ranking him since he effectively has Schrodinger's idol.

Spencer - No Change. The Final DC4 player. And look, all of them in No Risk. More DC4 characters in this tier than Fans somehow. Yeah, that's going to change soon. The good news for Spencer is that Sam has made it apparent that he wants to keep Spencer around to give the indication that he can be manipulated by others due to their feud. However, with Benji returning I'm skeptical that all three of the DC4 characters will last that much longer. I'm confident one of them will be out before Episode 20. If Spencer kisses Sam soon, he's probably screwed (no, not like that)

MILD RISK

NURA - No Change. Still has the fresh dynamic with Oliwia, but it's an intrateam dynamic which I view as having a decreased priority over interteam dynamics. The good news for Nura is that if my prediction for Benji joining Nura and Oliwia are true, then that could bump up their odds.

OLIWIA - No Change. To all the Oliwia fans out there, I'm sorry to say that she's probably next. Which is unfortunate because she's a lot more likeable when she's not being possessive over her relationships. Right now, I'm guessing 2-3 Favorites leave before the next Fan, so she should be good for now. But come Episode 18-19, I think she's cooked. If she manages to survive and we lose Nura or even Ren, then she's a major wild card that could even win.

MODERATE RISK

LAKE - No Change. There is a massive chasm in the odds between Oliwia and Lake. The writing on the wall for Cyan seems obvious. They're overexposed and have dynamics that have already been thoroughly explored. There's very little narrative reason to keep them all around if they're going to keep playing off of each other. The one thing keeping Lake from Severe Risk is her dynamic with Spencer. But the fact that she won immunity in the last challenge is reason enough to suspect that she could be targeted as a threat.

SEVERE RISK

ROSA - Moves DOWN from Moderate Risk. At this point she feels ancillary to Lake. While she has her rivalry with Natalia, almost everyone else has a relationship with her too. It's no longer enough to justify a higher placement. The only thing keeping me from placing her lower is that her elimination would leave us with 1 DC2 character, but 3 DC1 and DC4 characters. I think we're likely to lose another DC1 character, but I'm not confident enough to put Rosa in a higher tier.

GABBY - No Change. What's there to say at this point. She and Tom have been in this tier numerous times and kept surviving. They're too inconsequential to place in higher tiers though and don't meet any special criteria (received votes in previous eliminations or lost a friend) that I can use to place them anywhere else. Trust me, I hate doing this every time too. And judging by how they're perceived by the rest of the community, I'm not alone in that sentiment.

TOM - No Change. Won immunity last challenge. Lacks a strong plot. Doesn't have any major new dynamics. Doesn't meet any special criteria for a boost. Blah, blah, blah. Gonna be honest, I'm just done writing paragraphs for these two at this point. They don't do anything and it's frustrating not being able to take deeper looks at other, more interesting characters when the looming shadow of one of their eliminations is constantly hovering over me.

Contender Rankings

Okay, now that my Gom tirade is over, we can move on to the new stuff. Who do I think is going to win?

For now, Ren, Benji and Nura are the clear favorites. They each have strong narratives pushing them forward and a real underdog status to them.

Spencer, Lake and Natalia all fall into a secondary tier. Spencer and Natalia fall here due to a their villainous writing, while Lake is primarily here due to her feeling a bit too underwritten. They are all buoyed by their strong dynamics with other characters.

Oliwia, Fiore and Gabby are all dark horses. All of them can become legitimate contenders if the right conditions are met. For Oliwia, Nura needs to be the next Fan eliminated. For Fiore, Ren needs to be the next Fan eliminated. Losing one of the major contenders and getting the eliminated friend narrative boost at this point in the game would put either of them into serious contention. For Gabby, Tom needs to go ASAP AND she needs to develop new dynamics quickly. I had considered putting Gabby in zero chance, but I'm not completely ruling out the idea of her winning.

Rosa, Sam and Tom are done for me. Rosa and Tom are effectively satellite characters who could be removed at any point. Neither has enough narrative potential to realistically win at this point. While Sam has plenty of narrative potential, probably the most of any character, he's written as too perfect of a villain that he's clearly going to suffer a significant loss in the endgame. Winning villains have ups and downs in their narrative, but Sam is someone that constantly wins. I know that logic seems counterintuitive, but I'm confident in this prediction.

Well, well, well. Look at who was right about Benji coming back. You can go ahead and pick up the phone, cause I fucking called it.

. . .

What's that? All of you saw it coming from a mile away and I'm coming off as a huge jackass with all of my self-aggrandizement. Oh...

Well, uh, I guess I'll get started with my list then. Not to many changes since the non-losers weren't in the episode.

NO RISK

NATALIA - No Change. Still the safest person in the game due to having the most dynamics and her dead idol plot that needs to be played out. I do think Benji returning could hurt her odds moving forward, but for this episode at the very least I don't see her going anywhere. Similar to Nura with Ara, one of Gom is almost certainly going home before she does.

FIORE - No Change. Received votes in the previous elimination and started a new dynamic with Ren that is an interteam dynamic. These pairings usually have decent legs in DC (Ana/Zaid, Isabel/Jade, Logan/ Spencer, Riya/Rosa) so I'm doubtful either goes for a while. Also, Fiore can now throw knives. Nuns beware.

REN - No Change. Basically the same as Fiore. I do think eventually one of the Nat/Fiore/Ren trio is going to fall off a cliff in terms of likelihood soon, but all three have enough going on that they all feel untouchable right now. If I had to guess, probably Fiore with Natalia as a strong second choice due to Benji returning.

SAM - No Change. Was betraying Cyan dumb? Yes. But he's still the main villain and we all know that awards him a degree of plot armor. He doesn't really have enough power in the game to realistically be targeted over Cyan or the Peak Trio (Nat/Fiore/Ren cause they need a name and it fits.) He'll play the swing vote for now and probably stay in this tier until Final 6 or something.

BENJI - Moves UP from Eliminated. I hope you're sitting down for this. Actually, no, go for a walk. Get some fresh air while you read. Unless you're in Arizona, cause then you'll melt. Benji will likely have a grace period of at least one episode since his return was given so much weight. I know Karol got screwed over, but her circumstances were significantly different. My best guess is that Benji allies with Nura and Oliwia since they are able to play as swing votes and that was the niche that Benji found for himself when he was working with Ally. But beyond that, we should address the elephant in the room (NO EMILY DON'T SHOOT!) The idol. The return episode did not give any clarification to Benji's idol. That means currently there are 3 options: 1. Benji still has his old idol half which should now be live due to Ally no longer being in the game. But ONC is choosing to hide that fact for a surprise reveal. 2. The idol half that Natalia is in possession of can be used so long as Benji is the one that plays it. 3. Both idol halves are inactive and cannot be validly played. My guess is that one of the first two options are most likely since I doubt ONC will go a full season without a successful idol play. But it does mean Benji will be a massive headache for me when it comes to ranking him since he effectively has Schrodinger's idol.

Spencer - No Change. The Final DC4 player. And look, all of them in No Risk. More DC4 characters in this tier than Fans somehow. Yeah, that's going to change soon. The good news for Spencer is that Sam has made it apparent that he wants to keep Spencer around to give the indication that he can be manipulated by others due to their feud. However, with Benji returning I'm skeptical that all three of the DC4 characters will last that much longer. I'm confident one of them will be out before Episode 20. If Spencer kisses Sam soon, he's probably screwed (no, not like that)

MILD RISK

NURA - No Change. Still has the fresh dynamic with Oliwia, but it's an intrateam dynamic which I view as having a decreased priority over interteam dynamics. The good news for Nura is that if my prediction for Benji joining Nura and Oliwia are true, then that could bump up their odds.

OLIWIA - No Change. To all the Oliwia fans out there, I'm sorry to say that she's probably next. Which is unfortunate because she's a lot more likeable when she's not being possessive over her relationships. Right now, I'm guessing 2-3 Favorites leave before the next Fan, so she should be good for now. But come Episode 18-19, I think she's cooked. If she manages to survive and we lose Nura or even Ren, then she's a major wild card that could actually win.

MODERATE RISK

LAKE - No Change. There is a massive chasm in the odds between Oliwia and Lake. The writing on the wall for Cyan seems obvious. They're overexposed and have dynamics that have already been thoroughly explored. There's very little narrative reason to keep them all around if they're going to keep playing off of each other. The one thing keeping Lake from Severe Risk is her dynamic with Spencer. But the fact that she won immunity in the last challenge is reason enough to suspect that she could be targeted as a threat.

SEVERE RISK

ROSA - Moves DOWN from Moderate Risk. At this point she feels ancillary to Lake. While she has her rivalry with Natalia, almost everyone else has a relationship with her too. It's no longer enough to justify a higher placement. The only thing keeping me from placing her lower is that her elimination would leave us with 1 DC2 character, but 3 DC1 and DC4 characters. I think we're likely to lose another DC1 character, but I'm not confident enough to put Rosa in a higher tier.

GABBY - No Change. What's there to say at this point. She and Tom have been in this tier numerous times and kept surviving. They're too inconsequential to place in higher tiers though and don't meet any special criteria (received votes in previous eliminations or lost a friend) that I can use to place them anywhere else. Trust me, I hate doing this every time too. And judging by how they're perceived by the rest of the community, I'm not alone in that sentiment.

TOM - No Change. Won immunity last challenge. Lacks a strong plot. Doesn't have any major new dynamics. Doesn't meet any special criteria for a boost. Blah, blah, blah. Gonna be honest, I'm just done writing paragraphs for these two at this point. They don't do anything and it's frustrating not being able to take deeper looks at other, more interesting characters when the looming shadow of one of their eliminations is constantly hovering over me.

Contender Rankings

Okay, now that my Gom tirade is over, we can move on to the new stuff. Who do I think is going to win?

For now, Ren, Benji and Nura are the clear favorites. They each have strong narratives pushing them forward and a real underdog status to them.

Spencer, Lake and Natalia all fall into a secondary tier. Spencer and Natalia fall here due to a their villainous writing, while Lake is primarily here due to her feeling a bit too underwritten. They are all buoyed by their strong dynamics with other characters.

Oliwia, Fiore and Gabby are all dark horses. All of them can become legitimate contenders if the right conditions are met. For Oliwia, Nura needs to be the next Fan eliminated. For Fiore, Ren needs to be the next Fan eliminated. Losing one of the major contenders and getting the eliminated friend narrative boost at this point in the game would put either of them into serious contention. For Gabby, Tom needs to go ASAP AND she needs to develop new dynamics quickly. I had considered putting Gabby in zero chance, but I'm not completely ruling out the idea of her winning.

Rosa, Sam and Tom are done for me. Rosa and Tom are effectively satellite characters who could be removed at any point. Neither has enough narrative potential to realistically win this far into the season. While Sam has plenty of narrative potential, probably the most of any character, he's written as too perfect of a villain that he's clearly going to suffer a significant loss in the endgame. Winning villains have ups and downs in their narrative, but Sam is someone that constantly wins. Characters like this are being built up to make their defeat feel more satisfying.

I'm very confident one of them is screwed at the next elimination. Natalia has her fake idol plot, Fiore/Ren, Spencer/Sam and Oliwia/Nura still need more time for development and the returnee (Benji) will probably get a grace period of at least 1 episode assuming 15 is the return episode. That only leaves Cyan.

And another Fan bites the dust. I wasn't surprised Ara was the next Fan to go in the slightest, and I doubt many of you were either. But I had expected her to last 1-2 more episodes into the merge due to all the drama she was stirring up. Guess we really needed another episode of Gom. Still, she was my 3rd most likely to go, so a much better prediction than the previous episode. Let's hope I can keep it up. And since it was Ara, no one gets a friendship bonus since everyone hated her.

NO RISK

NATALIA - No Change. Dead idol plot, new dynamic with Ren and a major shift in her dynamic with Gom. She has too much going on to realistically leave next episode. Pretty sure she ends up trading away the idol to shore up the Fans and keep the majority. Also, girl (I mean woman) what the hell were you thinking by breaking up with Tom and Gabby. This move makes Jade using her advantage to take out Isabel look smart.

FIORE- Moves UP from Mild Risk. 2nd most votes in the previous episode almost guarantees she survives next episode. Don't blame me, I'm just looking at patterns. The show has also been hinting at her dynamic with Ren since Episode 8, so I'm doubtful that they won't spend more time exploring it now that they can interact more often. And to come to Fiore's defense, she didn't know Natalia was going to pull that shit with Tom and Gabby. Don't get angry at her for taking out Ally. That was the right move given the circumstances.

REN - No Change. While he's being acknowledged as a threat, getting two new dynamics necessitates he stay in the game to explore them. It's good enough to keep him here for now, but he's going to need some plot soon. Also, his dynamic with Fiore is adorable and if he leaves now then so do I. Maybe. Probably not

SAM - Similar to Fiore/Ren, his dynamic with Spencer has been built up since the premerge. These cross team dynamics will likely be prioritized over inter team dynamics that are growing stagnant. He's also the main villain. Duh.

SPENCER - Moves UP from Mild Risk. Same with Sam. New dynamic. Yadda yadda. Plus, out of all the Cyan alliance members, he's the one with the most potential to explore new dynamics within the alliance.

MILD RISK

NURA - Moves DOWN from No Risk. Huh, it's been a LOOOONG time since she's been out of No Risk. There was zero shot she was going home until Ara was out, so losing her this early in the merge doesn't bode well for her. Fortunately, her budding friendship with Oliwia probably means she's good for a few more episodes. But as of now, she's on notice.

OLIWIA - Moves DOWN from No Risk. Same with Nura minus the Ara points. Fairly confident one of these two are up next, but leaning towards Oliwia for now. For what it's worth, this was probably my favorite episode for Oliwia.

MODERATE RISK

LAKE - Moves DOWN from Mild Risk. Alright, now we're at the people who have a decent chance of getting booted. And I don't think it should surprise anyone that this is the bottom 4. Lake is the one that the writers appear to be favoring, but after winning a challenge, and with Fiore having shown a preference for targeting her (although ONC may have forgotten that by now) I see a compelling reason for why she could be next.

ROSA - Moves UP from Severe Risk. While I like how catty she and Natalia are with each other, I can't ignore that Rosa has been stagnating for the better half of the season. Natalia has every reason to target her and one of Lake/Rosa is likely gone soon. Feel like I should say more, but I got nothing. That about sums up Rosa's character this season though.

SEVERE RISK

GABBY - No Change. A decent episode for her as far as I'm concerned. I prefer petty Gabby to sad Gabby any day of the week. Unfortunately, that pettiness cost her the majority and an important potential dynamic with Ara. And since she looks like a 3rd wheel in the Tom/ Natalia rivalry there's good reason to suspect she's next. The only thing going for her is that Tom is a bigger threat and Gabby's fear of being alone still has potential for exploration. (Even if I don't care for it)

TOM - Moves DOWN from Moderate Risk. Was the MVP of the challenge and made himself the clear target for the Fans. His only major confidant right now is Gabby, a dynamic that is overused and underinteresting (is that a word?) And you know what else, I'm a bit of a generational ratio whore. Gen 1 hasn't lost someone since Alec in Episode 5. This will mark the 10th Episode since one of them left. ONC may not care about gender ratios, but they've been good about keeping the older generations even with each other. And since it's clear Fiore isn't going anywhere next episode, that really only leaves two options: Tom and Gabby.

RETURNEES

Not going to go into the same level of detail as last time. My only changes are that Finn's already unlikely odds drop further, Ara is extremely unlikely to return, Benji by far the most likely to return, followed by Bruno and in the event of a 2 person return, Manu becomes more likely to return. Ana, Ernesto, Aubrey, Aiden are all possible but still not very likely.

And another Fan bites the dust. I wasn't surprised Ara was the next Fan to go in the slightest, and I doubt many of you were either. But I had expected her to last 1-2 more episodes into the merge due to all the drama she was stirring up. Guess we really needed another episode of Gom. Still, she was my 3rd most likely to go, so a much better prediction than the previous episode. Let's hope I can keep it up. And since it was Ara, no one gets a friendship bonus since everyone hated her.

NO RISK

NATALIA - No Change. Dead idol plot, new dynamic with Ren and a major shift in her dynamic with Gom. She has too much going on to realistically leave next episode. Pretty sure she ends up trading away the idol to shore up the Fans and keep the majority. Also, girl (I mean woman) what the hell were you thinking by breaking up with Tom and Gabby. This move makes Jade using her advantage to take out Isabel look smart.

FIORE- Moves UP from Mild Risk. 2nd most votes in the previous episode almost guarantees she survives next episode. Don't blame me, I'm just looking at patterns. The show has also been hinting at her dynamic with Ren since Episode 8, so I'm doubtful that they won't spend more time exploring it now that they can interact more often. And to come to Fiore's defense, she didn't know Natalia was going to pull that shit with Tom and Gabby. Don't get angry at her for taking out Ally. That was the right move given the circumstances.

REN - No Change. While he's being acknowledged as a threat, getting two new dynamics necessitates he stay in the game to explore them. It's good enough to keep him here for now, but he's going to need some plot soon. Also, his dynamic with Fiore is adorable and if he leaves now then so do I. Maybe. Probably not

SAM - Similar to Fiore/Ren, his dynamic with Spencer has been built up since the premerge. These cross team dynamics will likely be prioritized over inter team dynamics that are growing stagnant. He's also the main villain. Duh.

SPENCER - Moves UP from Mild Risk. Same with Sam. New dynamic. Yadda yadda. Plus, out of all the Cyan alliance members, he's the one with the most potential to explore new dynamics within the alliance.

MILD RISK

NURA - Moves DOWN from No Risk. Huh, it's been a LOOOONG time since she's been out of No Risk. There was zero shot she was going home until Ara was out, so losing her this early in the merge doesn't bode well for her. Fortunately, her budding friendship with Oliwia probably means she's good for a few more episodes. But as of now, she's on notice.

OLIWIA - Moves DOWN from No Risk. Same with Nura minus the Ara points. Fairly confident one of these two are up next, but leaning towards Oliwia for now. For what it's worth, this was probably my favorite episode for Oliwia.

MODERATE RISK

LAKE - Moves DOWN from Mild Risk. Alright, now we're at the people who have a decent chance of getting booted. And I don't think it should surprise anyone that this is the bottom 4. Lake is the one that the writers appear to be favoring, but after winning a challenge, and with Fiore having shown a preference for targeting her (although ONC may have forgotten that by now) I see a compelling reason for why she could be next.

ROSA - Moves UP from Severe Risk. While I like how catty she and Natalia are with each other, I can't ignore that Rosa has been stagnating for the better half of the season. Natalia has every reason to target her and one of Lake/Rosa is likely gone soon. Feel like I should say more, but I got nothing. That about sums up Rosa's character this season though.

SEVERE RISK

GABBY - No Change. A decent episode for her as far as I'm concerned. I prefer petty Gabby to sad Gabby any day of the week. Unfortunately, that pettiness cost her the majority and an important potential dynamic with Ara. And since she looks like a 3rd wheel in the Tom/ Natalia rivalry there's good reason to suspect she's next. The only thing going for her is that Tom is a bigger threat and Gabby's fear of being alone still has potential for exploration. (Even if I don't care for it)

TOM - Moves DOWN from Moderate Risk. Was the MVP of the challenge and made himself the clear target for the Fans. His only major confidant right now is Gabby, a dynamic that is overused and underinteresting (is that a word?) And you know what else, I'm a bit of a generational ratio whore. Gen 1 hasn't lost someone since Alec in Episode 5. This will mark the 10th Episode since one of them left. ONC may not care about gender ratios, but they've been good about keeping the older generations even with each other. And since it's clear Fiore isn't going anywhere next episode, that really only leaves two options: Tom and Gabby.

RETURNEES

Not going to go into the same level of detail as last time. My only changes are that Finn's already unlikely odds drop further, Ara is extremely unlikely to return, Benji by far the most likely to return, followed by Bruno and in the event of a 2 person return, Manu becomes more likely to return. Ana, Ernesto, Aubrey, Aiden are all possible but still not very likely.

🫣🤬 Whatever. Let's just do this. Episode 14. Is it merge? Elimination? Double elimination? Returns? Who knows? Oh, right, Jared. But he didn't tell me. After what happened with Ally, unless there's a guarantee of a strong narrative for a character, they will not qualify for No Risk. Hopefully this will prevent me from making another Ernesto/Bruno/Ally screw up.

NO RISK

REN - No Change. Now a major opp for Sam as he, along with Spencer, are the only two who have truly caught on to Sam's facade. And I still expect him to ally with Fiore once the merge begins.

NURA - No Change. New dynamic with Oliwia and her rivalry with Ara is likely going to keep her in the game until the latter is eliminated.

SAM - No Change. Do I need to explain this one? Honestly, do I need to explain any of Sam, Ren or Nura?

NATALIA - Moves UP from Moderate Risk. The fake idol plot is just what Natalia needed to ensure narrative longevity. Chekov's Gun needs to be fired, and until that happens Natalia ain't going anywhere.

OLIWIA - No Change. New dynamic with Nura that needs time to be explored.

MILD RISK

FIORE - No Change. Wanted to move her up to No Risk, but after getting such a big W that often comes before an elimination and without any assured narrative thread (even though she's 99% likely to ally with Ren at merge) I can't move her up.

LAKE - Moves UP from Moderate Risk. Lake is in a weird position in the game right now. And that tends to be beneficial to a person's odds as opposed to being stagnant. Outside of Fiore, she doesn't really have anyone gunning for her. Spencer probably wants her out, but since he needs Rosa, that's unlikely to happen.

SPENCER - No change. What are you doing Spencer? Telling Sam how you figured him out? Are you trying to get yourself targeted? Spencer's dynamic with Sam and Lake probably assure he's going to stay in the game, and he arguably belongs in No Risk. But currently I haven't seen enough to ensure that Spencer is the long term foil to Sam when we have a plethora of other options.

MODERATE RISK

TOM - Moves UP from Severe Risk. I stand by my theory that receiving votes in the previous elimination significantly decreases the likelihood of being eliminated in the subsequent episode. Tom and Gabby remain on my radar, mainly for being boring, but also because their trust issues with Natalia seem resolved. One of them is certainly going soon (please God) so until then, they'll both remain in Moderate or Severe.

ARA - Moves DOWN from Mild Risk. Ara, Ara, queen of mean. Her innuendos are quite obscene. But yeah, she's almost certainly the next Fan to bite the dust. It's less a matter of 'if' and moreso 'when.' Right now, I still think she has enough to offer in terms of conflict that it makes sense she'd survive at least the first merge elimination. And maybe one or two after that. No way does she survive past episode 18. If she does, I'll eat my hat. Oh wait, I don't have a hat.

. . .

I'll buy a hat.

SEVERE RISK

ROSA - Moves DOWN from Moderate Risk. Unfortunately for Rosa, it looks as though Lake is winning the battle of relevancy. And since one of Lake/Rosa was doomed to early merge at best, I think we're closing in on her obituary. It feels like she's turning into Spencer's new Bruno. And that's a fate that I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy, Bruno.

GABBY - No Change. I've been upfront with not liking Gabby this season. But I do think I've been generally fair with her, even if I keep expecting her to go almost every episode. But with her plot with Natalia at an end and her relevance in the game being minimal, this may be her time to exit. Vitamin C you later.

BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE

Odds of Everyone Returning.

Alright, here's how I'm gonna do this: I'll give each potential returnee a percent chance they return in the event there's one returnee (2nd image) and another percent for the chance there's two returnees (3rd image.)

BENJI - By far the most likely person to return. I'm a believer in revived idol theory. That being that Benji's idol half will reactivate (I guess technically it wasn't ever active before, but semantics) upon returning to the game since Ally's now out. Beyond that, Benji clearly has the narrative potential to be an interesting returnee. Even if he did suck for the first 10 episodes. Plus, I just don't see ONC going an entire season without a successful idol play.

BRUNO - Has a lot going on in terms of potential dynamics and narratives. But due to being eliminated in Episode 11, he might be right at the cutoff where he was eliminated too recently to be in contention.

AUBREY - Is she a joke character? Yes. But if Evie taught us anything, it's that joke characters can stay in the season long past when the joke has stopped being funny. For what it's worth, she does have interesting dynamics with Sam and Oliwia. And her using astrology to make inferences about other characters, even if it is illogical, is actually interesting to watch.

MANU - Eliminated early enough that his return would feel satisfying and he didn't get a satisfying elimination, which leads me to believe he has a strong chance of returning. But the biggest issue is the lack of Bruno and Aiden. Those were his two main dynamics, and without either of them, I don't see a reason to bring him back to the game. In the event of a double return, I do think Manu's odds shoot up significantly.

ERNESTO - His main dynamic, Ren, is still in the game. However, Ren has enough going on that I doubt Ernesto will be needed. He has potential to work with other characters, but he might be a little too one note to be a serious contender. Doesn't belong at the bottom or the top. Right near the middle for this geezer.

AIDEN - Honestly, I think Aiden would be the best person to return to the game. He has by far the most diverse dynamics, and his story clearly still needed time to explore his personality change. The biggest issue for Aiden is that he's already been given a second chance with the team swap. Him getting a third chance would come across as clear favoritism.

ANASTASIA - Her elimination was the catalyst for a lot of the conflict on the Favorites Team. Bringing her back, especially while Lake and Rosa are both still in the game wouldn't feel right. If Rosa were to leave in Episode 14 and returns are in 15 though, expect Ana's stock to skyrocket.

FINN - Fun character, but ultimately was a bit of a one note villain who already received his comeuppance. And with Ara feeling as though she already has one foot out the door, I'm skeptical ONC would bring him back now.

ALLY - She left in the last episode. Basically 0 chance this happens.

DUNIA - Her coming back would undermine one of the best eliminations in DC history and take away the consequences of Ren and Nura's conflict. I love Dunia, but she's clearly the worst choice to return

Sam: 3

Fiore: 1

Oliwia: 1

Spencer: 1

Ally: 1

Dunia: 1

Bruno: 1

Benji: 1

Evie: 1

Anastasia: 1

Manu: 1

Ara: 0

Gabby: 0

Lake: 0

Natalia: 0

Nura: 0

Ren: 0

Rosa: 0

Tom: 0

Aiden: 0

Finn: 0

Alec: 0

Ernesto: 0

Aubrey: 0

Interestingly, in DC4 all of the people who cast the final vote (except Lynda) made it to Episode 17. And with the exception of Natalia, all of them cast the final vote at least twice (Logan cast the most at 5). Generally, doing this was a strong indicator of longevity. In DC5 we see the inverse. 7 out of the 11 people who cast the final vote have been premerge eliminations, and outside of Sam, no one has cast more than a single final vote. Though it's important to point out, just because a final vote is a bad omen doesn't necessarily mean you will be eliminated soon. Evie may have been out in the next episode, but it took 11 episodes before Dunia was eliminated. And Oliwia cast a final vote in Episode 4, but doesn't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon.

So while I'm extremely happy to be right about the Dunia elimination, especially after the Bruno fiasco, I'm also sad because, well, DUNIA'S GONE 😭. Though to be honest, while I prefer her over Ren, I prefer Ren staying over Dunia. That love triangle plot would have been stretched way too long and Nura and Dunia just don't have the chemistry for it to take up most of a season. That being said, Ren was right, Dunia is too good for Nura.

​

So, with us being at Episode 13, I'm at a bit of a conundrum. Are we merging? I'm not sure. As far as I'm concerned, the final 5 Fans have all merged. Zero chance there's another Fans elimination. For the Favorites, I don't see a clear indication that another elimination is set up. Feel like this could go either way. I'm going to tentatively assume we're having one more premerge elimination. But, much like Sam, it could go either way. Regardless, a favorite in 95% likely to leave next episode.

​

Onto the list: And remember, none of this is opinion. Everything I say is objectively true. And if you disagree, it's cause you're a stupid head.

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NO RISK

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REN - Moves UP from Severe Risk. Lost his closest ally, the elimination was sad and Ren didn't vote her out. All the criteria has been met. Ren gets the dead friend safety bonus. I mean, I assume Dunia's dead right? No? Then why the hell are they crying so much?

​

NURA - No change. Losing Dunia plus getting a new antagonistic dynamic with Ara means she's probably staying in this tier until Ara leaves. (Spoiler alert: Ara has zero shot of winning.)

​

SAM - No change. Ren is onto him. For the first time since Episode 1, he has someone that will be gunning for him. Fortunately, Ara took the credit for Dunia's elimination so getting the numbers to take out Sam is unlikely by next episode. Aura farmer remains in the same tier since Episode 2.

​

ALLY - No change. For what it's worth, she is so much better this season than in All-Stars. She's not my favorite, but she's putting in some genuine effort in challenges and making her vote valuable. I can respect that. More importantly, she still has an idol that I don't expect to see get misplayed.

​

OLIWIA - No change. On the other side of the coin, a character that my opinion can't get much lower of. Feel like she keeps getting more infantilized and the season drags on. But unfortunately, her vote is crucial for a majority and doesn't have any serious negative dynamics, so she remains in No Risk. Yippee...

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MILD RISK

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FIORE - No change. Ren surviving and Dunia leaving is VERY good for Fiore's odds. Especially since she's now looking for new allies. I'd probably put her in Moderate Risk if he left. I was even tempted to put comp-beast Fiore in No Risk, but the potential of her being used as an easy target for Rosa's alliance in case of a tiebreaker still lingers. And she did get a good performance in this episode, which often proceeds an elimination (Benji and Tristan) If she survives next episode, she's locked for No Risk in Episode 14.

​

ARA - No change. That 5% chance that a fan leaves, yeah it's basically all Ara. Do I think it's going to happen? Nah. This lovers to rivals plotline needs time to develop. But if anyone could get 3 votes, it's her.

​

SPENCER - No change. Lake backstabbing him is still a very real possibility, but his suspicion of Sam makes the odds of him going premerge low. Seriously though Spencer, did Logan not give you a single lesson in playing social?

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MODERATE RISK

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NATALIA - Moves DOWN from Mild Risk. Natalia is hemorrhaging support at a level even Spencer would be impressed by. More importantly, she has Rosa targeting her who probably has the numbers to at least force a tie. If this was real life, Natalia would be at the top of Severe Risk. But drama is everything in Total Dr- I mean Disventure Camp. If I'm Spencer, I realize that Natalia is the one keeping my alliance together. I doubt it would hold to target Tom, Gabby or even Fiore. He needs the chaos to survive. And so far, the season has been good about keeping the old generations even. 3 DC1, 3 DC2, 2 DC4. Not sure they'd go 3-3-1. However, the potential of Benji rejoining the game is what's keeping Natalia in Moderate instead of Mild.

​

LAKE - No change. She's part of a preestablished duo, and until it's broken or the narrative starts to clearly favor one over the other (Nura and Dunia) they'll remain in this limbo of uncertainty. One of them is likely going soon, but I have no idea which it'll be. Just as Lake could backstab Spencer, Spencer could backstab Lake. But outside of this dynamic with Spencer, Lake has nothing significant going for her. I want to root for her, but she's making it difficult.

​

ROSA - No change. Basically the same I said about Lake, except her dynamic with Natalia is actually entertaining. And that's pretty much it.

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. . .

. . .

. . .

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So, uh, nice weather we've been having lately.

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. . .

. . .

. . .

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Did you catch that episode of Breaking Bad 17 years ago?

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SEVERE RISK

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GABBY - No change. I don't even know what she's doing anymore. And I honestly stopped caring. I guess that's something me and Gabby have in common. When this season started, I didn't think I'd be enjoying Aiden and Ally but disliking Lake and Gabby. Gabby is part of a trio, and we know how long those tend to last in DC. But unlike Natalia, who actually does stuff, Gabby and Tom are often on the sidelines and don't have a narratively interesting dynamic. This episode did set up some backstory for Gabby, but I'm not sure if it's anything that can't be exposited in one or two scenes. Sorry to the Gabby fans that I keep putting her here. Don't blame me, blame ONC for making her so easy to cut from the show.

​

TOM - Moves DOWN from Moderate Risk. He's probably the biggest physical threat left in the game (after Fiore of course) so him being targeted is very likely this close to the merge or at the start of merge. While Gabby has backstory to cover, I think Tom has the more compelling dynamic with Natalia that could justify him staying. But I'll prioritize Gabby's backstory over the more appealing (but still not that good) dynamic and say Tom is slightly more likely to go. Which would take us down to 2 men and a Ren. But at this point, we know gender ratios mean nothing to ONC.

Well, this is my walk of shame. I ranked Bruno as No Risk, and he still got eliminated. In my defense, I don't think anyone predicted this. Bruno, who's now my least favorite fan, left before his story even started. Gonna be honest, ONC's habit of going for the subversive choice feels like more of a hindrance than something that strengthens the writing. There's a time and place for it, but given how Bruno's story played out, this definitely wasn't the time.

Onto the list:

NO RISK

SAM - No Change. Duh.

NURA - No Change. One of the key swing votes with no enemies.

ALLY - No Change. Major swing vote that both sides need and unlikely another advantage gets wasted.

OLIWIA - No Change. Another major swing vote on the Fans Team.

MILD RISK

SPENCER - Moves DOWN from No Risk. While Rosa's alliance needs him and the plot armor will likely prevent him from leaving, Spencer made so many enemies with Bruno's elimination that I can't discount the possibility of a blindside from Lake.

NATALIA - No Change. Still is a major focal point of a lot of the drama on the Favorites Team. And as we've seen, it's not in Spencer's interest to target someone like Natalia who generates conflict. He'll most likely redirect the vote if he gets the chance like he did before.

ARA - Moves DOWN from No Risk. Dunia and Ren are clearly going to target her since they don't really have another option. But I think it's obvious outside of a huge narrative shakeup (which we did see last episode) the numbers aren't there to get rid of her.

FIORE - Moves DOWN from No Risk. While Alec's daughter made an impressive move by manipulating Spencer, it may have had some unintended consequences. In a theoretical 4-4 vote, Fiore is the obvious target for Rosa's alliance, since she'd be the easiest to beat in a tiebreaker. I highly doubt Fiore would go here due to plot, but it is a reasonable outcome.

MODERATE RISK

ROSA - No Change. Feel like Rosa's arc could be getting close to an end. But I'm a sucker for patterns and typically if you receive votes the the prior episodes elimination, you won't be eliminated in the subsequent episode.

LAKE - No Change. Fiore's goal of targeting Lake is likely going to come up again after two failed attempts at targeting Rosa. And with Spencer and Lake's relationship growing more sour, I can't write off the possibility that he'd flip to Natalia's side for this vote.

TOM - Moves UP from Severe Risk. Gonna be honest, I couldn't care less about him or Gabby at this point. But at least he and Natalia have conflict that could justify Spencer wanting to keep him. On the other hand, Tom is a physical threat. The former seems to be more important to Spencer than the latter, but it's not something I'm willing to take off the table.

SEVERE RISK

GABBY - No Change. If Bruno can leave after being practically invisible for most of the season and contributing the bare minimum, then I don't see what hope Gabby has. Her "plots" have gone nowhere and she isn't branching outside of Tom or Natalia. But at least there's a spark of conflict in Tom and Natalia's dynamic. Gabby is mostly a mediator, and that isn't something that I think ONC wants to keep around.

REN - Moves DOWN from Mild Risk. It's him or Dunia. But the dialogue we've gotten from Sam would lead me to assume Dunia is the target. The vote will probably be 3-2-1. The question is, do Sam and Ara vote with Nura or Oliwia? The logic for targeting Ren from a story point is that Nura and Dunia could continue their romance arc while it might make sense from Sam's perspective because it maintains conflict that allows him to go under the radar.

DUNIA - No Change. Same as Ren. 3-2-1 vote. Sam makes his villainous reveal. It all comes down to whether Sam and Ara target her or Ren. If Sam is still afraid that Dunia will cause him to open up, then she's doomed. If the show decides to stay subversive, then she stays. Right now, it feels like a coin flip.