Is my Exped Ultra 3R the weak link in my sleep system?
I'm trying to work out why my son and I were both cold on a couple of nights in Iceland despite seemingly having a sleep system that should have been warm enough.
We both use:
Katabatic Flex 15 quilt
Exped Ultra 3R sleeping pad
Merino long-sleeve base layer
Merino long tights
Quilt fully clipped/secured — no obvious drafts
During our Iceland Divide bikepacking trip, there were a couple of nights where we were both noticeably cold, particularly at Reykjavik campsite and Landmannalaugar. Temperatures were definitely above freezing, probably around 4°C, and I don't believe they dropped below 0°C.
What's puzzling is that on the other nights, further into the Icelandic highlands, we were completely comfortable with exactly the same equipment, despite the conditions not obviously being warmer.
Neither of us felt that the cold was particularly coming from underneath, which makes me unsure whether the pad is actually the problem.
The Ultra 3R has an R-value of around 2.9, so I'm wondering whether that's simply not enough for temperatures around 3–5°C, even when paired with a Katabatic Flex 15.
Could the relatively low R-value of the pad be causing us to lose enough heat that the quilt can't perform as expected, even if we don't consciously feel cold coming through the pad?
Or are there other factors that could explain why both of us were cold on the same nights but fine on other nights with the same sleep system?
Would moving to something around R4.5–5.5 make a meaningful difference at these temperatures, or would you look elsewhere first?
I'd be particularly interested in people's real-world experience with the Ultra 3R around 0–5°C, rather than the manufacturer's temperature recommendations.