u/cucci_mane1

Meta FWD PE today is at 16x. If we were to exclude loss from Metaverse money pit - stock is actually at 13-14x FWD PE.

META did 30% top line growth YoY. On Rev base of >200B.

Meanwhile you have speculative junk company like TTD trading at FWD PE of 16-18x. That's after the 70% collapse YTD for this stock. TTD grew sales 3% YoY on tiny rev base and their guidance is revenue decrease of 10-12% YoY for next quarter. And their SBC is almost 50% of their FCF. Lol. This is a company getting crushed by competition (from Amazon) and may not exist 5 yrs from now... and it is priced higher than Meta, a monopoly with top tier top line growth and moat as wide as pacific ocean.

So, today Meta is priced like a speculative junk stock. Wtf?

Never invested in this stock before but 20% dip few days ago got me intrigued to look at the stock for first time.

Financials are good with solid growth. But what got me is the sequential US DAU decline or lack of DAU growth.

From my time as growth investor, the most successful investments were with companies with consistent user / customer growth YoY, without hiccups or exceptions. Think CRWD, NET, etc.

The most disappointing and awful trades I had were with "growth" stocks that had high top line growth of 3-4 years then their user / customer growth stalled and top line growth eventually stalled also. Ex: PINS.

I feel neutral about RDDT stock. I dont see it growing near as linear compared to behemoths such as Meta. Reddit is already hitting a brick in user growth in just year 2 post IPO. While Meta is still reporting user growth at 3.5B DAU already with time spent on app up YoY and top line growth of 25-29% with rev base of >$200B.

RDDT wont be the next Meta but will it be the next PINS? Dont think so either. The company is valuable but IMO it needs better business execution from its C Suite re: user growth and increased user engagement.

At this point I think it is a bit too speculative for me to commit serious capital. Any opinion or thoughts welcome.

Been bag holding meta since last yr with entry price in mid $600. Was sitting on negative returns for past 12 months. But past few days, I believe the stock is finally turning around.

Any dips are being instantly bought aggressively. Yesterday, it opened down 4% but closed up 5%. 9% swing in a day.

Most importantly, the narrative on this stock is changing rapidly. Market is transitioning from "Zuckerberg is doing metaverse 2.0 with all these AI spending" to "Meta is now showing us concrete steps to monetize that investment".

With 1 or 2 good earnings report, I see the stock at $900-1k by year end.

I dumped all my losers (msft, crm, etc) and added more to Meta.

Your thoughts on stock's trajectory?

I keep hearing about 4 year cycle for BTC with many speculators pointing to exact end date of BTC bear market to be 2026 October. As it should follow prior cycles from top to bottom.

This got me thinking- if top to bottom and beginning and end of bear market for BTC was so easily predictable - wouldnt everyone and his brother be multi millionaires? Go long with leverage when "BTC turns into bull market at XYZ date" and start short position towards beginning of bear market based on pre-determined timing.

More importantly - let's say stock market goes into bear cycle starting in 2027. Let's say the AI bubble bursts and Nassaq drops 30-50%. In that hypothetical, I seriously doubt that BTC will be the unique safe haven with its own bull market. Just bc of "end of 4 yr cycle bear".

Typically, the weak gets even weaker when financial markets go south.

Any thoughts or logic on this?

Msft past 3 yr stock gain is close to 0% as of today. Do you think this stock will be in multi yr bear market?

Msft traded near flat for almost 10 yrs when S Ballmer was the CEO. When a stock loses its footing and when the managent sucks and makes costly mistakes, the stock could be done for a decade or more.

Back in 2017 when I first got into stocks, many folks told me to invest in BABA. "AMAZON of China" or "investing in BABA is betting on future of China". They said. Back then, stock was $150-170. Today, it closed at $95. You would have lost 30% of your initial capital + opportunity cost + inflation if you held this turd of stock for past 10 years.

My fear with msft is that the board and upper management is too complacent. Too complacent with spending the level of money that is equivalent to many countries GDP with no clear ROI to speak of yet. And these data centers are capex and opex heavy investments with heavy depreciation and recurring costs in future. These aren't some high margin, high growth businesses that will grow into infinity.

ACN stock down almost 20% premarket today after earnings report. I am not an investor in this company but been eyeing it as it has been dropping past year and valuation looked tempting. I am glad I didn't pull the trigger.

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This stock, a large cap tech stock, is down >60% YTD and at today's price, almost a decade worth of stock gains got wiped out. PE ratio before today's crash was pathetic 13x and it's tanking 20% on top of that due to lackluster earnings report.

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And then we have the likes of MSFT, CRM, etc down 20-25% in just past 2 weeks with no noteworthy news at all. Another mag7, META, is down 15% YTD.

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Meanwhile, we have semi stocks trading near or over 100x PE and that space stock trading at mega cap market cap with 0 earnings, on IPO day.

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This stock market is K shaped one, and an exteme one at that. Sector that's in favor is going on euphoric, pre dot-com crash levels while everything else is treated as garbage.

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What I will say is be extremely careful in buying anything in this market... a "value" stock can lose 20% of its value instantly. Very risky to chase dips in stocks that have been in downtrend IMO.

I take international trips 2x per yr. Eating out at restaurants here in NJ / NY metro is at least 3x more expensive than comparable places in Rome / Madrid / Portugal / Most of France except Paris.

On top of much higher base, I am paying sales tax on top. (Which I dont pay anywhere in Europe or Asia) And on top of that 20% tip is pretty much a requirement. Nowhere else I have traveled was I ever required to tip one dollar.

Value just ain't there here in US. I am tired of getting ripped off left and right. I cook at home 3x a week now and if I crave something I only do takeout maybe 1x a week. I will go to a restaurant that has been proven to be really good, only on special occasions like a birthday.