I paused ads on a profitable listing for 3 weeks just to see what would happen. Here's what I think I learned (emphasis on "I think")
Bit of context — I've been running ads on my own catalog for years, and one question that always bugged me: how many of my "ad sales" would have happened anyway?
Attribution on Amazon tells you what the console wants to tell you. If someone searches your exact niche, clicks your ad that's sitting one row above your organic spot, and buys... that's an ad sale on the dashboard. Would they have scrolled one more row? No idea. The data doesn't exist. Or it exists and we don't get it, whatever.
So I ran the dumbest possible experiment. Took an established listing, decent organic rank, ads profitable on paper, and just... turned them off. Three weeks.
What happened: total sales dropped way less than the dashboard implied they would. Ads were "responsible" for maybe ~40% of units, but when I shut them off I lost closer to ~15%. So a decent chunk of my ad spend was paying for sales I was getting anyway. Cool cool cool.
Before anyone yells at me, yes, I know the caveats. Three weeks is short. Seasonality is noise. And the one that actually worries me — some people believe the sales dip itself hurts your organic rank, so the test isn't free. Honestly I half expected to come back to a wrecked listing and that didn't happen, but one listing one time proves nothing.
I turned the ads back on afterward, but at a lower budget, and profit per unit is better now. That part I'm confident in. What I'm NOT confident in is whether this generalizes or I just got lucky with a listing that had strong enough organic to coast.
Has anyone else actually tested this instead of theorizing about it? Especially curious if anyone's seen the organic rank damage everyone warns about, or if that's one of those things we all repeat because it sounds true.