I think we're headed for $200-$225 (supercycle trendline) before the next pullback

https://preview.redd.it/bhi8yg7exanh1.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=27096b48dd45d04e8bbdc93963a9a9b56bf35210

https://preview.redd.it/lzcer1pylymh1.png?width=2085&format=png&auto=webp&s=850ae519c8201ccb4fcc4084699f0cd0854221eb

Here’s what happened after the last five times the 9-day SMA crossed above the 100-day SMA:

• Apr. 22, 2026: +22.69%
• Apr. 25, 2025: +14.26%
• Sept. 27, 2024: +23.39%
• July 18, 2024: Initially closed -4.8%, then surged +14.78% the next day
• Oct. 25, 2023: +25.78%

Unless MSTR sees a very sharp pullback immediately, the next crossover should occur this Thursday or Friday.

Minimum upside target: 200-day SMA near $140

🎯Nailed this move

For probably the first two years I ran Amazon Ads, I treated match types like they were just the exact same thing at different price points.

Broad got more impressions, exact match cost more per click—so I’d pick a budget and hope for the best. That was basically my entire framework.

It took me way longer than I’d like to admit to realize they aren’t doing the same job at all.

Here is the mental model shift that actually moved the needle:

1. Broad and Auto = Data Mining Tools (Not Scaling Tools)

Broad and automatic campaigns are purely discovery mechanisms. Their only job is keyword harvesting—surfacing customer search queries you had no idea were converting.

You aren't trying to aggressively optimize ACOS on day one, and you aren't trying to scale them directly.

• Low default bids (usually around $0.10–$0.25 to start, depending on niche/category).
• Wide net.
• Let Amazon’s algorithm do the heavy lifting in the background.

Every single new SKU/design I launch goes into an auto campaign first. I don't check it daily, and I don't panic if initial ACOS looks high in week one. The campaign has one specific job, and letting that data mature takes runway.

2. Graduating Keywords to Exact Match

What I watch for inside the search term report are customer search terms that show consistent conversions at a profitable cost.

Once I have solid data (which usually takes at least 3–4 weeks minimum):

• Those search terms "graduate."
• They get moved into a dedicated Exact Match campaign.
• They get their own isolated budget and dialed-in bid.

That exact match campaign is where you actually scale and optimize.

Meanwhile, the original auto campaign stays on 24/7 with low bids to keep harvesting new long-tail terms.

3. Stop Optimizing Campaigns That Aren't Meant to Be Optimized

The biggest takeaway for me: broad and auto campaigns look inefficient by design when you're using them correctly. If your discovery campaigns have an insanely low ACOS right out of the gate, you probably aren't actually discovering anything new—you’re just capturing exact search traffic through a wider net and paying extra for the spillover.

Also, **you can't rush the impression phase.**Cranking bids up after 7–10 days because "nothing is happening" just means you pay more money to learn the exact same data slower.

The TL;DR Framework

• Keep bids incremental.
• Stay patient on the data runway.
• Keep match types separated by function (Discovery vs. Scaling).

How many weeks of data do you let accumulate in an auto campaign before harvesting search terms into exact match?

Bit of context — I've been running ads on my own catalog for years, and one question that always bugged me: how many of my "ad sales" would have happened anyway?

Attribution on Amazon tells you what the console wants to tell you. If someone searches your exact niche, clicks your ad that's sitting one row above your organic spot, and buys... that's an ad sale on the dashboard. Would they have scrolled one more row? No idea. The data doesn't exist. Or it exists and we don't get it, whatever.

So I ran the dumbest possible experiment. Took an established listing, decent organic rank, ads profitable on paper, and just... turned them off. Three weeks.

What happened: total sales dropped way less than the dashboard implied they would. Ads were "responsible" for maybe ~40% of units, but when I shut them off I lost closer to ~15%. So a decent chunk of my ad spend was paying for sales I was getting anyway. Cool cool cool.

Before anyone yells at me, yes, I know the caveats. Three weeks is short. Seasonality is noise. And the one that actually worries me — some people believe the sales dip itself hurts your organic rank, so the test isn't free. Honestly I half expected to come back to a wrecked listing and that didn't happen, but one listing one time proves nothing.

I turned the ads back on afterward, but at a lower budget, and profit per unit is better now. That part I'm confident in. What I'm NOT confident in is whether this generalizes or I just got lucky with a listing that had strong enough organic to coast.

Has anyone else actually tested this instead of theorizing about it? Especially curious if anyone's seen the organic rank damage everyone warns about, or if that's one of those things we all repeat because it sounds true.

I mostly play on DraftKings, so I'm drafting all 20 rounds.

Who's your favorite Round 20 target this year?

Mine are:

• Tyler Higbee
• Devaughn Vele
• Tez Johnson

Who else belongs on this list?

Been thinking about this one for a while and I don't have a clean answer, but I'll give you mine anyway.

I used to just... keep adding budget. Campaign's doing okay, ACOS looks fine, so why not push it. That was basically my logic for two years running ads on my own catalog. More spend, more sales, line goes up, feels productive.

Then at some point I actually sat down and looked at margin per unit after ad spend, not just revenue, and realized I was scaling a product that barely broke even once everything else got backed out. The ads were "working" in the sense that ACOS looked fine on a dashboard. They weren't working in the sense that actually matters, which is, was I making money on each sale.

So now my rule, and honestly it's less a rule and more a gut check, is this: when I'm about to bump budget, I ask whether I'm doing it because the listing's already proven and I'm just adding fuel, or because I'm hoping more spend quietly fixes a conversion problem I don't want to deal with. Those are two completely different situations. They get treated like the same decision way too often.

If it's proven, fine, scale it, that's the easy case. If I'm not sure, I stop and go look at the listing first. More budget on something that isn't converting just buys you a faster, more expensive way of finding that out.

Honestly the harder part isn't even the ads side. It's admitting a product might not be worth more of my time even though the ads could technically push more volume. That one's less PPC and more ego, if I'm being straight with myself.

Anyway. Where's everyone else drawing that line, is it a specific ACOS or TACOS number, a gut feeling, or you just keep pushing until profit tells you to stop?

DraftKings just abruptly shortened the Best Ball pick clock from 30 seconds to 20 seconds.

It was still 30 seconds this morning.

I'm in a new Best Ball draft right now... and it's 20 seconds.