Strongest overall paths

1. Hunter Goodman +240 — FanDuel

Goodman gets Eric Lauer in Coors. He owns an .864 OPS and .508 SLG against lefties, and his swing fits the four-seam/changeup portion of Lauer’s repertoire. He has also homered against Lauer, although six plate appearances is too small to carry the pick. Coors, the handedness matchup and Goodman’s home/night power all align.

The concern is his 37% strikeout rate. This is a legitimate ceiling spot, but he still needs to put the mistake pitch in play.

2. Max Muncy +285 — FanDuel

Another Coors target. Eight of Muncy’s last ten homers came against right-handed pitching, and eight came against the four-seam/sinker/changeup family Ryan Feltner relies upon. Muncy has a .903 OPS and .530 SLG away from home, with a strong pull-air profile built for this environment.

His 29% strikeout rate creates failure risk, but the park, pitch mix and left-handed power path are all live.

3. Matt Olson +312 — DraftKings

Olson has elite underlying alignment against Zebby Matthews. Fourteen of his last twenty homers came against Matthews’ primary pitch family, while Olson carries a .922 OPS and .569 SLG versus righties.

The drawback is pitch availability: Matthews may be able to work around Olson or avoid his preferred damage zones. At better than 3/1, however, Olson’s power profile is attractive enough to include.

4. Mike Trout +340 — FanDuel

Cristian Javier’s four-seam/sweeper/changeup repertoire matches six of Trout’s eight recent HR pitches, and Javier has shown both barrel and home-run leakage. Trout’s .940 road OPS and .535 road SLG are additional positives.

This is not a form-only pick—Trout’s recent overall production is less convincing, and the 32% strikeout rate matters. The bet is on the matchup producing one hittable elevated pitch.

Plus-money matchup targets

5. Daylen Lile +525 — BetMGM

This is one of my favorite price-sensitive plays. All seven of Lile’s recent homers came against righties, five were pulled, and his 46.7% pull-air rate provides the shape we want for an HR longshot.

Cal Quantrill is not an automatic fade, but Lile’s repertoire fit is favorable, and the late-inning bullpen matchup adds another route. The Globe Life roof must be checked because it materially affects the environment.

6. Jake Bauers +440 — BetRivers

Bauers has produced twelve of his last fourteen homers against righties and owns an .881 OPS with a .496 SLG in that split. He has also homered against Bryce Miller, though that came within only six plate appearances.

The sinker/slider portion of Miller’s mix is the main attraction. Bauers’ 29% strikeout rate and the unresolved Milwaukee roof keep him below the core group.

7. Julio Rodríguez +450 — BetRivers

Kyle Harrison has recently allowed four homers with a 13.3% barrel rate, while seven of Julio’s last ten homers came against Harrison’s primary pitch family. Milwaukee’s bullpen also offers a legitimate late-game HR path.

The negatives are meaningful: only two of Julio’s last ten homers came against lefties, and his away production has been weaker. This is a pitcher-leak and price play rather than a clean split play.

8. Ivan Herrera +470 — FanDuel

Herrera gets a favorable park in Cincinnati and has already homered against Andrew Abbott. His swing also matches Abbott’s four-seam/sweeper/curveball combination.

The BvP result came in only three plate appearances, so I’m treating it as supporting evidence—not the reason for the pick. Herrera’s night power numbers are modest, and Abbott may not consistently enter his damage zones.

Bottom-half longshots

9. Jo Adell +439 — DraftKings

Adell is exactly why I wanted to evaluate the entire lineup. He owns a .928 OPS and .583 SLG against lefties, and eight of his last ten homers came against the pitch family Carson Whisenhunt is expected to feature.

The path is thin: Whisenhunt’s recent sample shows no HR or barrel leakage, Adell’s home split is weak, and the direct matchup consists of only two plate appearances. The raw power and handedness split keep him playable at the price.

10. Ezequiel Tovar +580 — DraftKings

This is the deepest dart. Tovar gets Coors, has homered against Lauer and matches well with Lauer’s projected four-seam/cutter/changeup mix.

Unlike Goodman, the individual production is not strong: Tovar has a .632 OPS and .349 SLG against lefties, and the projected eighth lineup slot lowers his plate-appearance ceiling. This is an environment/repertoire longshot—not one of the card’s strongest probability plays.

My order: Goodman, Muncy, Olson, Trout, Lile, Bauers, Julio, Herrera, Adell, Tovar.

1. Ben Rice The best Yankees power path against Bryce Miller. He has the barrel rate, Yankee Stadium geometry and lineup position to see multiple opportunities.
2. Matt Olson Elite barrel profile in one of the afternoon’s strongest home run environments. Atlanta also retains a favorable late-game bullpen path.
3. Munetaka Murakami The loudest raw contact profile on the slate: 61.8% hard hit and 21.8% barrels. The concern is strikeouts, but anything squared up can leave.
4. Pete Crow-Armstrong Washington projects as the strongest confirmed scoring environment. PCA brings hard contact, speed and enough plate-appearance pressure to create multiple paths.
5. Luis Garcia Jr. A lower-whiff alternative to Ben Rice with a 17.2% barrel rate. He gives us a different Yankees damage path without simply stacking the obvious names.
6. Francisco Lindor His recent hard-contact profile remains strong, and this matchup gives him both a starter path and a viable route into the Atlanta bullpen.
7. Brady House The controlled outlier. He owns a 62.1% hard-hit mark with a 17.2% barrel rate and gets the platoon advantage against David Peterson.
8. Brandon Lowe A one-swing candidate against Janson Junk, whose profile also allows plenty of extra-base damage when the ball stays inside the park.

TOP FOUR AFTERNOON MONEYLINE READS

1. Nationals +144 vs Cubs The model makes Washington a slight favorite rather than a substantial underdog. This is the largest disagreement on the board, although also the most uncertain.
2. Mets +163 at Braves Atlanta has the louder power ceiling, but the Mets are being priced below their actual win probability. The bullpen path keeps New York live throughout the game.
3. Pirates +106 at Marlins The cleanest modest edge of the four. Both lineups are confirmed, and Pittsburgh grades slightly better than the market implies.
4. Mariners +116 at Yankees The model has this close to a coin flip, making plus money on Seattle playable. Their lineup has enough contact and power to challenge Will Warren and the Yankees bullpen.

Texas remains my strongest late conditional read, but I am not publishing it until the TEX-LAA lineups confirm.

Yesterday’s HITS!!! 👇

✅ Junior Caminero +245

✅ Matt Olson +355

✅ Joc Pederson +265

✅ Pete Alonso +310

✅ PCA +330

✅ Miguel Vargas +445

Yesterday’s HITS!!! 👇

✅ Junior Caminero +245

✅ Matt Olson +355

✅ Joc Pederson +265

✅ Pete Alonso +310

✅ PCA +330

✅ Miguel Vargas +445

Yesterday’s HITS!!! 👇

✅ Junior Caminero +245

✅ Matt Olson +355

✅ Joc Pederson +265

✅ Pete Alonso +310

✅ PCA +330

✅ Miguel Vargas +445

Junior Caminero
The strongest complete power profile on the slate. Recent 20% barrel rate, a favorable path against Mason Barnett, and 10 of his last 17 HRs came against Barnett’s primary pitch families.

Matt Olson
Confirmed batting third with a ridiculous 26.7% recent barrel rate. He owns Atlanta’s highest one-swing ceiling and matches the sinker, four-seam, and changeup combination he should see.

Joc Pederson
Projected leadoff against a starter allowing 2.33 HR/9. Joc has a 56.7% recent hard-hit rate, and eight of his last 14 HRs came against this cutter, sweeper, and sinker mix.

Pete Alonso
Confirmed batting second in one of today’s better offensive environments. His recent barrel rate is 30%, and 11 of his last 14 HRs came against Ober’s changeup, four-seam, and slider combination.

Shohei Ohtani
I’m not excluding the strongest Dodgers probability simply because it is obvious. His swing matches Wacha’s arsenal, and Kansas City’s bullpen supplies a second opportunity if the starter survives.

Pete Crow-Armstrong
Confirmed leadoff with 20% recent barrels and a 46.7% pull-air rate. Jake Irvin has allowed 1.45 HR/9, giving PCA both volume and a legitimate mistake-pitch path.

Kyle Schwarber
The best exact-HR representative from the Philadelphia lineup. The St. Louis heat and carry help his flight path, while his one-swing ceiling separates him from the safer all-around Phillies options.

Miguel Vargas
My differentiated White Sox pick. He gets the platoon advantage against Lodolo, owns a 13.5% barrel rate, and presents a cleaner contact path than the higher-ranked but high-strikeout Murakami.

Brady House
Confirmed batting third against a left-handed starter. His 19.2% barrel rate and 65.4% hard-hit rate give him substantially more impact upside than his price and name recognition suggest.