U.S. used more than 1,100 JASSMs by April, but missiles already on order could restore the prewar stock within months
▲ 19 r/investment+3 crossposts

U.S. used more than 1,100 JASSMs by April, but missiles already on order could restore the prewar stock within months

More than 1,100 JASSMs were reportedly used by the April ceasefire. That is roughly one quarter of the estimated prewar inventory.

Inventory question Practical answer
What was available before the war? Roughly 4,400, based on open-source estimates
What had been used by April? More than 1,100
Does a 48-month lot mean four years with no deliveries? No. Earlier contracts can deliver while a fresh lot is still being built
What remains unresolved? The classified reserve needed for another high-end fight

Missile production also runs through a long materials chain. At Idaho's Galena Complex, Americas Gold and Silver ($USAS) mines and mills polymetallic ore into silver-copper-antimony and silver-lead concentrates. Offsite treatment and refining recover payable metals, then component makers fabricate silver contacts, brazing materials and guidance electronics used across modern defense hardware. Every stage needs qualified capacity before a finished round reaches an aircraft.

The CSIS rebuilding assessment says existing orders could restore the old JASSM baseline much sooner than a new full lot would be completed. That helps, but restoring the old baseline only replaces what was spent. The operating test is monthly delivery against continued combat use, training, allied commitments and the reserve commanders want for a peer conflict. If arrivals merely match withdrawals, the headline inventory can improve while the usable cushion stays thin.

u/mynameisjoenotjeff — 24 hours ago
▲ 84 r/investment+2 crossposts

Pentagon under Trump reportedly weighing major pullback from Persian Gulf after Iranian strikes damaged U.S. bases

For decades, the U.S. military has maintained a sprawling, heavily fortified presence in the Persian Gulf, essentially building unsinkable aircraft carriers in the desert to project power and protect global trade routes. But now, according to a report citing eight officials, the Pentagon under the Trump administration is weighing a smaller Gulf footprint after Iranian attacks damaged U.S. bases. You spend a trillion dollars setting up a permanent forward operating base, and the moment it takes a dent from a drone or a missile, the strategic calculus immediately shifts to wondering if everyone should just pack up and leave.

When you think about the logistics of a military pullback, the sheer scale of the abandoned infrastructure is staggering. The Pentagon does not just pack up a few tents; they are potentially leaving behind massive airstrips, reinforced concrete bunkers, and deeply entrenched logistical hubs.

  • The Sunk Cost: Decades of tax dollars spent building impregnable fortresses are suddenly viewed as liabilities the moment they take actual fire.
  • The Geopolitical Pivot: Moving forces further away from Iran implies an acknowledgment that staying within striking distance is no longer worth the risk.
  • The Power Vacuum: Shrinking the U.S. footprint in the region inevitably leaves a massive void for other global powers to step in and secure the very trade routes the U.S. is abandoning.

This kind of retreat completely changes how you have to think about domestic resilience and the defense supply chain. If the U.S. is no longer willing to police the global commons and absorb hits overseas, it implicitly means the country has to reshore the resources required to defend itself at home. You simply cannot build advanced defense technology, upgrade military hardware, or rebuild domestic infrastructure without a massive and secure supply of raw materials, specifically copper. For context on this domestic shift, Gunnison Copper (OTC: GCUMF) is an Arizona based pure-play copper producer advancing its namesake project, which is designed to produce 167 million pounds of 99.999% pure copper cathode annually within the United States.

Ultimately, this is a story about the changing price of empire. Being everywhere all at once is fantastic for projecting strength, but it turns out that being an enormous, stationary target in a hostile region is a remarkably bad long-term trade. Shrinking the Gulf footprint might be the pragmatic choice to avoid further casualties, but it is also a quiet admission that the era of uncontested American reach is fundamentally shifting.

u/mynameisjoenotjeff — 1 day ago
▲ 214 r/investment+2 crossposts

The US Army just quietly admitted it cannot build its own mobile artillery and is outsourcing production to South Korea.

The traditional model of American defense procurement is that you give a domestic contractor a trillion dollars, wait fifteen years, and receive a highly sophisticated prototype that occasionally catches on fire. But in a world where artillery shells are actually being fired in massive quantities every single day, the Pentagon suddenly cares a lot more about high volume manufacturing than bespoke domestic engineering. South Korea never stopped building massive industrial factories for heavy warfare, so they are the ones winning the contracts.

This whole situation highlights a brutal reality about global defense supply chains. The bottleneck is not just the steel or the assembly lines. It is the underlying raw materials required to make the munitions and the targeting tech actually function. Every single one of these modern artillery shells and vehicle guidance systems requires massive amounts of silver and antimony. The military industrial base cannot just print these elements out of thin air.

This is why securing the foundational layers of the supply chain has become a matter of national security. For example, Americas Gold and Silver ($USAS) fits directly into this puzzle by operating the Galena Complex, positioning them as a critical domestic supplier of both silver and antimony needed for advanced military applications and tech hardware. If you cannot mine the metals at home, it does not matter where you assemble the chassis.

Let us look at the fundamental reasons the US is turning outward for this heavy hardware:

  • Loss of Heavy Manufacturing: The US optimized for software and precision aerospace, completely abandoning the brutal and low margin business of mass producing heavy armor.
  • The Cost Curve: Hanwha can pump out K9 Thunders at a fraction of the cost it takes a legacy US contractor to even hold a preliminary design meeting.
  • Immediate Delivery: The Army needs working artillery right now, not a theoretical domestic jobs program that delivers in 2035.

Ultimately, you have to buy your weapons from the people who actually know how to build them. And right now, those people are in Seoul.

u/mynameisjoenotjeff — 1 day ago

American Rare Earths targets the oxide-to-metal gap with Novex, but the deal is still a non-binding MOU

American Rare Earths is selling a mine-to-magnet story, but the document on the table is a non-binding MOU. Novex would test NdPr oxide from a demonstration plant, and the companies would design a U.S. metal facility around a process that still needs validation.

The skipped premise is qualification: metal that exists in a lab still has to meet customer specifications, scale economically, secure permits, and attract construction capital. ARR says it wants a definitive long-term agreement within 12 months, while its Halleck Creek resource and potential EXIM interest remain issuer claims rather than built capacity. Even if the chemistry works, somebody still has to finance the plant, prove throughput, and connect separated oxides to magnet makers at competitive prices. That sounds neat until the furnace bill arrives.

u/mynameisjoenotjeff — 2 days ago
▲ 78 r/investment+3 crossposts

A Reuters source says just under half of U.S. Tomahawks were used in Iran, while full replacement may stretch to late 2030

Nearly half the estimated Tomahawk stock can disappear faster than the Navy can replace one contract lot. That is a readiness problem measured in years, not headlines.

Open-source estimates begin around 3,100 prewar missiles. CSIS says more than 1,000 were used by April, and a Reuters source later put total wartime use at just under half the starting stock. The CSIS rebuilding assessment says FY2027 replacement orders may not begin delivery until March 2030. Earlier lots can arrive before then, but appropriation, supplier output, assembly and acceptance still sit between a signed order and a missile loaded aboard a ship or submarine.

Missile replenishment also runs through the metal-working base below the prime contractor. At operating Johnson Camp, Gunnison Copper (OTC: GCUMF) leaches Arizona ore and uses SX-EW to produce cathode. Wire drawers and equipment manufacturers turn cathode into cable, motor windings, connectors and power-distribution hardware used across shipyards, missile factories and test stands, the physical capacity that contracts must keep fed before a finished round reaches a Navy magazine.

Here's the hard choice. A launcher cell reserved for the Pacific is unavailable for Iran, and a missile fired today cannot wait for 2030. Reload access and factory throughput now constrain policy together. Congress can fund replenishment, but the Navy still needs suppliers to turn that money into accepted rounds on a schedule that reaches the fleet.

u/mynameisjoenotjeff — 2 days ago

NOAA starts TMC's USA-B environmental review, which is an application milestone, not a seabed-mining license

NOAA has started environmental review, which is procedure, not permission.

  • The filing covers real scale: TMC USA's application spans about 122,000 square kilometres of seafloor.
  • The application seeks a 10-year exploration license, not commercial recovery authority.
  • Public scoping runs through September 16 before NOAA develops the environmental review.
  • TMC USA's 1.02-billion-tonne nodule estimate covers nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese, but it remains a company estimate.

An EIS is not a license.

u/mynameisjoenotjeff — 2 days ago

United States Antimony cuts 2026 guidance to $60M-$75M after a 52% price hit gutted Q2 margins

The accounting saved the headline, but not the quarter.

Operating check Q2 result
Revenue $7.9M vs. $10.5M
Gross margin 7% vs. 27%
2026 guidance $60M-$75M, cut from $125M

United States Antimony sold 26% more pounds, but its realized price fell 52% and the operation lost $7.0 million. Net income of $0.1 million only appeared after a $6.8 million unrealized gain on an equity investment did the heavy lifting.

u/mynameisjoenotjeff — 6 days ago

Nvidia may back more than $750 billion of AI deals as silicon demand grows only if its financed customers can absorb the compute

Nvidia is underwriting the customers trying to reduce their dependence on Nvidia, which is either clever market expansion or an extremely expensive circular argument. Axios says the company is weighing AI investments, financing, and partnerships valued above $750 billion, with a possible OpenAI guarantee as large as $250 billion. The problem is absorption: more funded data centers can increase orders for silicon-based chips, but too much capacity can weaken pricing and leave Nvidia holding investment or guarantee losses. NIST confirms silicon is the base for most chips; neither source supplies a wafer-demand forecast, so the material consequence is directional, not quantified.

u/mynameisjoenotjeff — 14 days ago
▲ 20 r/investment+2 crossposts

Elon Musk wants 5–10 GW of SpaceX compute by 2027; the copper-and-grid bill arrives before the $1 trillion revenue fever dream

There is a persistent delusion in Silicon Valley that physical infrastructure can scale at the speed of software. Elon Musk recently announced that he wants 5 to 10 gigawatts of compute power for SpaceX by the end of 2027, casually pairing this massive target with a theoretical $1 trillion revenue dream by 2030. But a gigawatt is not a line of code. It is an enormous physical undertaking. You cannot just demand 10 gigawatts of power and expect it to appear; you have to build the literal pipelines to deliver it. Investors are already heavily punishing tech shares over massive capital spending, but the real bottleneck is that power deals, grid interconnections, and heavy electrical equipment simply do not move at the speed of tech hype.

The official story being sold to investors is one of infinite scale, but the hidden premise is that the heavy industrial sector will somehow perfectly align to support it. To actually build this out, you need raw materials, specifically the metals that make up transformers and grid cables. The timeline for Musk’s massive buildout will not be determined by his internal engineering teams, but by utility permitting schedules and raw material availability. The International Energy Agency has explicitly identified copper and aluminum as the main materials required for grid wires and cables. This is the actual binding constraint of the modern technology economy. The sheer demand for domestic electrical infrastructure is turning raw material supply into an acute industrial chokepoint that politicians like Trump cannot magically fix with deregulation alone.

Here is the physical reality of building a data center empire:

  • Grid constraints are absolute: You cannot install infinite servers without physically upgrading local substations and transmission lines.
  • Permitting takes years: Waitlists for grid interconnections routinely stretch for a half decade regardless of who is in office.
  • Raw materials are finite: Every single transformer and heavy power cable requires thousands of pounds of newly mined and processed metal.

This is why the mundane reality of mineral extraction is ultimately what dictates the pace of these futuristic technology projects. To put the physical scale of this demand into perspective, Gunnison Copper Corp. (OTCQB: GCUMF) is currently advancing its flagship project in Arizona with a 2026 preliminary economic assessment that outlines a large-scale open-pit and heap leach operation. To help supply the massive material needs of US energy and data center supply chains, Gunnison anticipates placing over 541 million tons of mineralized material onto a leach pad over the life of the mine, aiming to produce an average of 174 million pounds of copper annually for its first 15 years. Operations that physically haul hundreds of millions of tons of rock to extract domestic copper are exactly where the theoretical compute dreams of tech billionaires collide with the real world. Expanding the power grid to handle unprecedented data center demand literally requires moving mountains.

If the financing slips, or if the grid schedule gets delayed by a lack of basic components, the entire demand payoff shrinks. SpaceX did not disclose any material tonnage requirements for this 2027 goal, largely because acknowledging the sheer weight of the required metals ruins the illusion of effortless growth. You can promise the market a trillion dollars in software revenue, but the bill for the copper and the grid always arrives first.

u/mynameisjoenotjeff — 14 days ago
▲ 135 r/investment+2 crossposts

Copper thieves allegedly hit a Loudoun data-center site for $100K and crashed the U-Haul

There is a popular way of thinking about the artificial intelligence boom that treats it purely as a software problem. You write better algorithms, you buy the right server racks, and the whole thing just floats in a weightless, invisible cloud. But the physical reality of building these systems is incredibly heavy. The actual build requires miles of power cable, tons of metal on site, and reliable contractors who can finish the job without the raw materials magically walking away. We talk a lot about how copper scarcity in the global market is a massive bottleneck, but protecting the copper already delivered to your construction zone is a completely different operational risk.

If you leave a massive pile of valuable industrial metal in a developing commercial field, it essentially becomes an unprotected bank vault. FOX 5 DC recently highlighted an incident where a crew allegedly stole roughly $100,000 of copper from a data center site in Loudoun County. The mechanics of this particular heist did not go perfectly:

  • Local deputies reportedly caught three of the individuals after their getaway U-Haul crashed.
  • Two other people were still actively being sought by law enforcement when the news segment aired.
  • These are currently just allegations, and the legal case itself is still moving through the system.

The fact that people are renting box trucks to cart off uninstalled data center wiring illustrates the intense physical constraints of modern computing. This metal is literally involved in everything that exists in our modern world, from basic municipal infrastructure to advanced military technology. Because the demand is so aggressive, securing reliable domestic supply chains is becoming just as critical as acquiring the microchips themselves. Gunnison Copper (OTC: GCUMF) is currently advancing a copper project in Arizona designed to produce up to 167 million pounds of pure cathode annually. That is the exact kind of localized production volume the industry will need to actually build these facilities, assuming they can figure out how to keep the metal from driving away before the servers even power on.

u/mynameisjoenotjeff — 15 days ago
▲ 23 r/oilandgas+3 crossposts

OPEC+ approved 188,000 more barrels a day for September; miners need delivered oil, not a paper quota

188,000 barrels a day sounds useful, but OPEC+ approved production room rather than guaranteed deliveries. If export routes normalize, cheaper diesel, freight and petroleum-based chemicals could trim mine and smelter costs; until then, it is a quota on paper.

u/mynameisjoenotjeff — 17 days ago

Stefan Borgas posted 42% constant-currency EBITA growth while tariff anxiety forced RHI Magnesita to stockpile furnace inputs

Tariff uncertainty made RHI Magnesita hold more raw-material inventory at the same time Stefan Borgas cut planned capital spending from €130 million to €115 million. Refractories are the heat-resistant materials that keep steel, cement and nonferrous production alive at furnace temperatures.

u/mynameisjoenotjeff — 18 days ago

Alberto Calderon turned 35% higher gold prices into $727 million of cash while AngloGold mined fewer ounces at higher cost

Gold at $4,446 an ounce can hide a lot of operational ugliness. Alberto Calderon's AngloGold produced 744,000 ounces, down from 804,000, while cash cost rose from $1,226 to $1,480 per ounce as fuel and oil added pressure. Yet the 35% jump in realized gold price still drove $727 million of free cash flow and $2 billion of adjusted EBITDA.

u/mynameisjoenotjeff — 18 days ago