u/naughtyobama

Will Sean Sweeney quickly wear out his welcome? He's admitted to being an "asshole" during his welcome interview, although he seemed to make conscious effort to "listen".

I strongly believe the magic need discipline, lots of practice throughout the season to drill the right habits and competent offense. But Scott Skiles' tenure as the magic head coach in 2014 should be a cautionary tale he should mind.

Skiles is a demanding, unflinching, no sugar coating coach who will hold all to exacting standards on offense and defense. He practices hard year round, demands exact floor geometry, no mistake defensive rotations and specific offensive decisions. He has no issues pulling you out when you make the wrong play, regardless if you're a "star".

And the magic had a massive and immediate 10 game improvement over the Jacques Vaughn "matchups". The offense and defense improved from bottom of the league to average.

Fournier became a highly efficient SG shooting over 40% from 3. Oladipo replaced Elfrid Payton as the point of attack defender and Skiles said he was playing at an all-defense level. Aaron Gordon played amazing defense, even Vuc became league average defender.

Soon, that grinding approach wore out it's welcome though. Scott bailed within two seasons because he lost the locker room, FO office had a hard on for Hezonja and Elfrid and Skiles decided he was done with coaching. We lost Tobias and Oladipo right before his all-star ascension.

So, while Sean should absolutely drill the team constantly, give hard truths, hold guys accountable, he needs to keep in mind that he can easily wear out his welcome if he overdoes it.

He's a good deep bench guy if on a minimum deal. He shot 37.2% from 3 last year on 2.6 attempts.

2.6 million per year for a couple of years, the second being a team option is pretty reasonable to a deep bench guy playing for a coach who will drill plays and rotations all throughout the year.

Bring Mo and Jamal back too.

Truth is the roster is set for the rest of the year until season opening with waiving JI.

The most exciting thing will really be the coaching staff.

Im cautiously optimistic about the Sean Sweeney hire. But we're already a darn good defensive team. Maybe he can keep the defensive juggernaut running while reducing fouls? There's not a lot to do there, imho.

The single most important thing I'll be watching for this year is whether we can get Paolo bought in with playing as a true PF in the mold of a Chris Webber, Detroit Blake Griffin, or even a Draymond Green in the short roll. Ill be looking for whether he's isolating to score or playing within an offense, and whether he's taking off the dribble contested 3s.

Paolo distorts the defense so much when he's driving downhill, we've got to try all the ways to get him the ball at the elbow and high post where he can take a couple of steps and threaten to score or create for others quickly.

For Franz, Suggs, WCJ - sure, catch and shoot 3pt shooting. But mostly just health. Focus on getting your body right. Especially for Franz.

If i'm seeing the same habits out of Paolo out of the gate like last year when he couldn't figure out how to play within the new offense prunty created to start the season, ill know it's going to be a very long year and quick postseason.

TLDR: The magic could benefit tremendously more from a coach who holds guys accountable than from a players' coach.

Ive been doing a deep dive since the season ended. Stats, video review of play by play for the top guys: Paolo, Franz, Suggs. And a little bit but significantly less for the following guys: Bane, Anthony Black, Wendell.

At this point, ive watched every scoring attempt and every assist for the top guys from the playoffs back to about early april. And im concluding that the magic need an accountability coach more than a players' coach.

The obvious first: The magic are a superb defensive team. The new regime needs to continue that. Anything less would be a catastrophe.

Next: the big issues i see for this squad.

1. Poor playmaking and advantage creation

2. Poor 3pt shooting and poor overall shooting

3. Too much off the dribble shooting

4. Too much iso

5. Paolo, Franz and Suggs too inefficient.

Poor playmaking and advantage creation

I came in think we need to make a move to get some playmaking. After watching the tape, im actually thinking i want to run it back!

Franz

Franz is a SUPERB playmaker. He navigates the PnR extremely well and almost always creates an advantage against the defense that gives us a high percentage shot. This actually stunned me how good his vision, processing speed and passing ability is. He routinely makes advanced reads and makes plays that even i didnt fully catch even though im constantly pausing, rewinding to see what should happen.

He always keeps his dribble alive (which is what you want) even when hes in a crowded paint as he surveys his options. Hes very patient, and while i dont think hes got Paolo's first step, his "shiftiness", deceleration and lateral movement are more than adequate to consistently create for the team.

Now hes not a good off the bounce shooter, but hes very disciplined about not taking them. He uses the pnr or screens extremely well to get his defender on his hip in jail. This forces the defense to react and Franz is ready to exploit.

I think he can be either the first option or second option to initiate the offense.

Bane

The second guy who surprised me more than expected was Bane. Now i know he did a great job in MEM while Ja was injured / suspended with playmaking, i wasnt expecting this much.

Bane isnt a one trick pony. He shot 39% from 3pt range on the season and 43% in the playoffs! 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio for 4ast/game.

Bane attacks closeouts aggressively and drives into the teeth of the defense. He didnt finish amazingly but its efficient offense for this squad. The magic happens with his kickout passes to open guys. Hes great at monitoring the tag defender and passing either to his man or the second level pass when the defense rotates.

Also, hes the only one who should be taking off the dribble shots on the regular imho. He shoots 35% on off the dribble 3pt shots. Thats good enough to create a defensive crisis EVERY TIME as the initial action, especially if Franz or Paolo are screening for him.

Paolo

Paolo acts as our primary play starter, playmaker, shot creator today. I have a ton of issues with this.

First of all, i dont think Paolo should EVER be bringing the ball up the court. He consistently only makes it past the midcourt to start the offense at the 18 and 16 second mark. Thats 8 valuable seconds lost. Thats already a win for the defense. By contrast, Suggs, Bane and Anthony Black consistently made it by 20 seconds. I didnt see enough from Franz to have an opinion yet. But these guys need to shoulder the load and responsibility of bringing the ball up. If they need to focus on their dribbling skills all summer, so be it.

Paolo also has the nasty habit of immediately taking an off the dribble 3pt shot at the top of the key with 17 seconds on the clock when the defense sags off when hes initiating a play. Hes a pisspoor off the bounce or contested 3pt shooter. So even when he makes it, that possession is a win for the defense. Hes frankly not good enough to "punish" the defense for sagging on 3pt shots. But the amount of times he did it makes me think there was zero accountablity from the coaching staff for those low iq decisions. He needs to focus on creating advantages for the offense, not chucking.

Paolo has pretty darn good vision though. Hes just not making the reads Franz is making. And hes looking to score first. But hes got such an insane gravity in the paint, it stunned me almost every single time how the defense absolutely collapses when hes gets to the paint.

So i think he needs to shift into a secondary playmaker role, especially in the short roll as the roller in pnr actions. That gets him the ball in the high post, deep paint or low post areas where hes already got momentum. With one or two dribbles, hes at the rim or the top of the key either wide open, or single/double coverage (especially when hes screening for Bane) and those are good, high percentage shots for him. Or he can kick out to shooters. Today, hes barely making contact as the screener and slips into a fade at the 3pt line so he can pound the ball. So frustrating.

Open, stationary shooting is a strength for this squad. Suggs, Bane, Anthony Black, Tristan, Jett (yup!), Wendell, Mo all shoot high percentage when open on catch and shoot. Its contested, isolation and off the dribble shooting thats killing this team's 3pt shooting.

Paolo needs to run the floor and get early and deep paint position, get mismatched to smaller guys or get the ball in transition early in the shot clock, not slowly bringing up the ball for isos and low iq off the dribble 3pt shooting early in the shot clock.

Ive made the comment before but Paolo needs to get over 70% of his touches as a short roll guy in screen and pnr actions or in the paint, low post or high post areas instead of by camping out at the top of 3pt line. And stop getting pushed out to the 3pt line for Christ's sake. Get the position and hold the advantage.

I honestly think Paolo need to work out with Hakeem, or Dwight or Blake Griffin this summer. Focus on distorting the defense with his gravity by diving to the paint or getting favorable positioning or matchups close to the paint.

He actually does this now in a few posessions and hes SOOO effective at creating a scrambling defense. But i would say its maybe 15 to 20% of the shots or passes he made that came from him based on the possessions ive watched. He primarily starts at the top of the 3pt line and tries to breakdown the defense today.

Another thing i noticed is defenses know he struggles with reading the floor. They will often double him all the way out to the logo when he calls for picks or screens. Hes not a good enough 3pt shooting for this level of attention. Theyre forcing him to make a decision. And more often than not, he keeps the ball! Paolo, if youre getting doubled, pass to your outlet immediately, someone is open. Now you have a 4 on 3. Thats what makes superstars! So, he needs to stop thinking about those plays as actions to get him some daylight to take a shot and more as actions that create an advantage for the offense to take a high quality shot.

Another thing - some of our guys SUCK at setting screens that connect and create separation for the ball handler. Wendell, in particular is averse to this. Hes barely connecting and hes already slipping. Some of these plays dont even result in a switch! Its just time wasted, especially when paolo isnt dropping the ball to the slip guy 90% of the time. Suggs created some of the most effective screens i saw.

In conclusion, If paolo focuses on using his strengths (paint pressure, passing to the right guy at the right time, spot up shooting), hes going to be a VERY efficient supernova offensive hub.

But he needs to give up the rock, become a play finisher than a play starter and focus on making the right play, which is often a pass, rather than taking a shot the majority of the time.

Suggs

Suggs was a good playmaker this year. In true quarterback fashion, he always has his head up when the magic get the ball and is phenomenal at outlet passes! Pinpoint, daring passes there! And these are high percentage looks because the defense isnt set yet. He also makes the easy passes, moves the ball to the open guy when the offense is scrambling and rotating or hitting guys on the weakside when the tag defender overdoes it in their rotation and the corner is open.

He is an absolute freight train out of the pick and roll or when he beats his guy off the dribble. He actually has a pretty darn good first step to beat his guy consistently, i felt. The problem is hes trying to be a running back/fullback out there. He doesnt know how to keep a guy on his hip in jail while he patiently surveys the floor for what the tag defender or roll defender are doing. Just straight line, full speed dash to the rim and passes when he can see the open guy in his direct field of vision.

I think he needs to slow down on offense and he'll be such an improved offensive weapon. Use that quick first step to get the primary defender on his hip, keep him in jail, map the floor and pass or finish at the rim. No mad dashes into clogged paints! The accuracy of his other passes (especially outlets) make me think he can deliver the ball in shooting pockets. He just needs to read the defense more and stop taking off the dribble 3s, even when his defender goes under screen.

Hes otherwise a good 3pt shooter off catch and shoot (39%). His form looks excellent to me. He often rushes the shots though. So he needs more patience. When the defense is rushing to recover to him, feint, let the defender drive by then shoot or rotate the ball to the open guy. Or drive aggressively then slow down to make a play as the secondary or tertiary playmaker.

Suggs is an insane defensive playmaker and if hes taking the right shots, playing under control on offense, hes an above average piece for this squad. Those arent difficult things. He needs discipline and accountability and maybe a high iq vet to help him unlock his potential.

I dont think we should trade Suggs until he has a chance to play within a competent and disciplined offense.

Anthony Black

AB took a big step this year in assertiveness and as a cutter. Hes a good secondary passer. He actually put the defender in jail a couple of possessions i saw while he patiently surveyed the floor. He doesnt have a great first step, has no business taking off the dribble shots (to his credit, i didnt see a ton of those). I didnt see advanced reads and playmaking (again im going backwards and im only up to early april now). But he made perfectly fine passes.

His handle real shaky and defenses know. I saw one possession where he was at the logo and Paolo (i think) came to set a screen for him. His defender was crowding him out, so he turned his back to the rim, then attempted to half spin but he loses his handle and the advantage was lost immediately. Play had to be reset. He needs intensive work on his handle this summer.

But hes an ok 3pt shooter of catch and shoot (34%). Its not the worse thing in the world.

Wendell Carter Jr

Wendell is pretty good as a passer out of the post, in the short roll from PnR actions. He isnt spectacular but he processes the floor quickly and makes solid decisions. My only criticism is he should spot up in the corners at the 3pt line most possessions. Hes shooting 32% off catch and shoot. Thats bad but the few possessions i saw with this had SOOOO much room for Paolo to get the rim and when guys have to tag, the catch and shooting really comes alive. But he typically does center things where he stands on the baseline and his defender can literally stay in the paint and never has to worry about stepping out. Given the lack of shooting results, and the fact the most frequent driver (Paolo) almost never dumps the ball down to him but would rather take a contested shot with three tight defenders contesting, i say cut your losses and play 5 out. But it's probably a coach decision so i dont know how much is Wendell.

The rest

Jett - I havent watched the defense and i dont recall seeing any plays from Jett, i can only rely on stats. Hes a damn good 3pt shooter. Id give him as small a contract as possible but keep him on the roster.

Tristan - I love Tristan. Such a good high Iq player. Really good shooter too.

Isaac - Get him outta here. Tradd him but dont give up assets or waive him soon so you dont have keep the 8mil option on the books, imho. Ask me more if youre curious but you need his cap space to make small moves at the margins. Id bring Kyle lowry as a vet to help AB, Suggs, Paolo with mapping the floor, and how to read and manipulate the defense.

Jamal Cain, lock him up to a long term deal.

Mo Wagner - bring him back.

TLDR : Mosley did a lot of what im preaching in small doses. The bad decisions by Paolo and the top guys kept happening with regularity with zero repurcussions. So, i dont think we have a roster problem. I think we have an accountability and mindset problem. Our highest usage guys are taking shortcuts and trying to score through hero ball. They need to focus on having a plan, executing it and reacting to the defense in the correct ways.

Someone like Thibs or JVG could make this happen. Id lean more JVG than Thibs given our injury history. Theyre not the only choices, obviously but they build vaunted defenses and disciplined squads on offense. They have yhe gravitas to get Paolo in line, imho.

Edit: attempting to fix formatting