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u/ntosleo

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▲ 17 r/ELTP_Stock_Investors+1 crossposts

Back to Basics: Why ELTP is falling despite record profits

Some of you these days criticized the CEO because of the falling stock price.

Some of you tried to explain the falling stock price by pointing out the 5m compensation that the CEO got or the warrants or the outstanding shares...etc.

And it's false, the stock price traditionally goes down if the company is:

  • mismanaged (and this is not the case)
  • falling revenues (this is barely our case but we have new products coming so we are not in this position)
  • uncertainty about the future of the company, that's our case.

Uncertainty.

Currently we know that something will happen between November 2026 (next CC) and February 2027 (possible uplisting) but we don't know what will happen exactly, the CEO surely knows but he can't disclose it.

The market doesn't know in what direction the company is heading to, not having a direction is what makes people lose confidence, without confidence the stock price goes down, while the market waits about the next news.

That means that the stock price will go up the moment we will have news if either we will merge and uplist, if we will uplist alone, if the company will be bought out...etc.

reddit.com
u/ntosleo — 11 days ago
▲ 1 r/pep

Took Raltegravir again after vomiting, short by 1 dose at the end of PEP cycle

Hello!

I threw up 1 hour after taking my evening Raltegravir 400 mg dose yesterday night (I 99% sure that I vomited the pill too). I immediately took a replacement dose so I wouldn't lose coverage. My adherence so far has been 100%.

Now I’m short by one pill on my last day (Day 28). Is it safe to just skip that last dose, or should I go back to the hospital to request an extra pill to complete the full 28-day regimen?

reddit.com
u/ntosleo — 11 days ago
▲ 10 r/AccountantsEire

Should I start ACCA at 27?

Hello everyone!

About me: I just turned 27yo, I'm a non-Irish national who moved to Ireland and works in pharma. I make €40k a year working from home, so I have plenty of free time. In my job, the ceiling is around €45k–€50k, and I feel like it's a dead-end job with no upward mobility.

My plan: I'm considering studying for the ACCA. I have a master's degree in political science, so I won't get any exemptions, (since ACCA is removing the BT exam in 2027)

I'm planning to finish Applied Knowledge by 2027. Then, in 2028, I plan to start Applied Skills and get a new job so I can accumulate the required 36 months of experience.

I will probably finish at 31 years old, and I'm okay with that. However, I don't know if I'm doing the right thing, as I'm afraid to start over at a lower salary during those 36 months of training.

What are your opinions, advice, or ideas?

Thank you for reading.

reddit.com
u/ntosleo — 1 month ago
▲ 15 r/ELTP_Stock

Warren Buffett - If You Can’t Handle a 50% Drop, Don’t Own Stocks

Just a reminder for those concerned about the price drop: a lot of us are in the red, but the company is still there making money.

u/ntosleo — 1 month ago
▲ 21 r/grindr

A guy stole my plug

Yesterday I met a guy and I put a plug on his ass, and we planned to meet today at 1pm to have sex.

And he never replied again

He stole my plug!

u/ntosleo — 2 months ago
▲ 4 r/pennystocks

EON Resources spuds first well in 92-well Permian program

EON R built its first vertical well out of its 92-well program. The company's current business is repairing old wells and putting them back to work; they own hundreds of wells.

Last year, they entered into an agreement with Virtus Energy, under which Virtus will fund the construction of the first three vertical wells.

I was and I am still an investor in EON R; the fundamentals are there. The only negative side is that the company still hasn't filed the 10-K, but they have until October, plus the authorities can grant them another 6 months if they show signs of progress.

Their low-cost structure and insider holding are the prime signals that this company is not run by scammers.

drillingcontractor.org
u/ntosleo — 2 months ago
▲ 33 r/ELTP_Stock

Capacity, Patent Cliff and Buyout

Capacity:

The key to understanding where Elite Pharmaceuticals (ELTP) is heading lies not in a buyout or Nasdaq uplisting, but in understanding its manufacturing capacity.

Since the last conference call, I have talked about ELTP's production capacity.

If you were working a minimum-wage job, would you buy a garage for a car you don't even own? Obviously not, and your family (or shareholders) would think you were being foolish.

In the Q4 2026 call, Nasrat said that he turned down offers from third-party companies seeking to use Elite's production lines. At the time, I pointed out that ELTP rejected this contract work because they knew they would need that capacity for their own products. During that call, Nasrat stated:

"On manufacturing shifts, we run a single shift on two lines and that takes care of our needs. Huge opportunity for growth if we double or triple capacity."

Fast-forward to the Q1 2027 call, when an investor asked: If Elite is currently running only a single shift, why is an additional facility expansion necessary?

Nasrat said:

"It is true that we're running only one shift right now. However, you set up your facility for the future. [...] In order for us to have a viable manufacturing facility, we need to take over a warehouse in one of the buildings next to us, revamp it and make it fit for pharmaceuticals, and then put equipment in it, and then qualify the equipment. And that process takes about 2 years."

Expanding pharmaceutical production capacity costs millions, and no one buys a garage without having a car.

Patent Cliff:

Nasrat also said in Q1 2027:

"Other products that are perpetual. We have 25 million to 50 million diabetics in America. There are excellent diabetic products that are coming off patent. Our hat is in the ring, and we are very close to 3 of the formulations. So having that as a product that is ongoing, this is not something that's seasonal. This is not something you take once in a while."

My reading: Between 2025 and 2030/32, hundreds of billions of dollars worth of drug revenues will be exposed to loss of exclusivity. This period is also referred to as the "patent cliff," and I quote: "However, 2026 marks the start of a particularly pronounced cliff, with key patents on billion-dollar drugs set to expire. The US market alone is projected to lose more than $230 billion in revenue between 2025 and 2030." - Source: Drug Discovery News

Link: https://www.drugdiscoverynews.com/blockbuster-drugs-face-a-massive-patent-cliff-in-2026-17019

Some of you know that Nasrat was working for Actavis. Actavis generics was a company that manufactured obv generics, and it was bought out by Teva in 2016.

The last major patent cliff was between 2011 and 2016. Guess who profited from it? Actavis.

In 2011, Actavis had revenue of $2.5 billion.

In 2016, the last year of the patent cliff, it was around $6 billion.

After doing some research, I come to the conclusion that Actavis indeed benefited and profited significantly from the patent cliff.

Buyout:

The patent cliff is hell for Big Pharma: they are losing revenues and need to replace those revenues with new drugs.

In this scenario, Big Pharma, in order to avoid losing revenues, starts buying companies. Some of them are generic companies, like Teva did with Actavis, not because Teva loved Actavis, but because Teva needed to protect its market share.

So the patent cliff can indeed make ELTP more valuable, or at least make Big Pharma more interested in it, and with that we go back to capacity.

If you are a Big Pharma company and you see that ELTP is increasing its capacity and that ELTP will benefit from the patent cliff, which could reduce your market share, wouldn't you buy ELTP?

To wrap it up:

  1. ELTP is focused on expansion, not survival: ELTP is expanding its manufacturing facilities for future production, which translates to substantially higher top-line revenues in the coming years, and they will need that capacity within the next 2 years.
  2. The insight into the facility expansion is the best signal that we have about the future of the company.
  3. The patent cliff alone will boost ELTP and its pipeline.
  4. The patent cliff, together with the expansion in manufacturing capacity, will put ELTP on the radar of Big Pharma for a potential buyout
u/ntosleo — 2 months ago
▲ 6 r/ELTP_Stock

What if a buyout right now is the worst thing for ELTP Shareholders?

What if a buyout isn't ideal right now? What if we’re moving too fast?

As shareholders investing in an OTC company, we seek high returns because we are taking on substantial risk.
But what if pushing for a buyout right now is the exact opposite of what we should be aiming for?

Right now, we’d be trying to sell on the promise that future revenue growth will justify the purchase price. But what if we hold? What if we wait another year or two?
If someone is rushing to sell, why would a buyer pay top dollar?

In the next two years, ELTP could easily be pulling in $400M a year in revenue.

Upcoming Catalyst:

- August 2027: Generic OxyContin® ER ($800M market)

- Early 2028: Sales begin for generic Eliquis (following the ANDA approval in a $27B market)

The Math:

Assuming a P/E ratio of 9 (which is lower than our current 9.5):

Assuming $400 million in revenues: once Eliquis goes generic, its market will collapse to a few billion dollars. If ELTP captures a 10% market share, that equates to roughly $180 million to $200 million.

We are currently generating around $150 million annually. If Eliquis alone adds another $180 million to $200 million, our revenue reaches roughly $330 million to $350 million, even assuming zero growth from the rest of our portfolio. Since we will obviously continue selling other products and expanding, a $400 million target is quite conservative.

400 million revenues = 120 million net income (roughly) x9 = 1.080 billion valuation = 1$/share 
1$ worst case scenario, assuming we increase sales, remaining on the OTC market and pursuing no new ANDAs

If a company comes along with a buyout offer that's too good to refuse today, great.
But in two years, we will be negotiating from a superior position backed by $400M in revenue and expanding product lines.

This also explains our massive production capacity and why Nasrat rejected contract manufacturing offers. We are going to need every bit of that capacity for our own drugs.

Disclosure / Conflict of Interest: I personally prefer this scenario because it gives me time to accumulate more shares.
Methodology: Without dismissing other users' valuations, my analysis intentionally leans more conservative because I prefer to model the worst-case scenario.

This post isn't financial advice or a definitive statement, just a thesis.

I could be wrong, so feel free to share your thoughts!

reddit.com
u/ntosleo — 3 months ago
▲ 21 r/ELTP_Stock

STIPULATION of Dismissal and Proposed Order Regarding Irrevocable Covenant Not to Come to Market by ELITE LABORATORIES, INC., ELITE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.

Following my previous post, here the PDF concerning the court case between ELTP vs Purdue that was published on June 12

pacermonitor.com
u/ntosleo — 4 months ago
▲ 17 r/ELTP_Stock

Purdue vs Elite - Case dismissed without prejudice

Yesterday I was following the website Inverstorshub they were discussing about ELTP, a user recently said:

"Just bought the stipulation document off Pacer, cost me slightly over 3 ELTP shares at current price. Lol. Looks like they both agreed to drop the case and as part of that, Elite agreed to not market OxyContin until the patents in this case expire, which this document says “the Asserted Patents all expire on August 24, 2027.”

Elite is not entitled to 180 day exclusivity.

It says at one point that the 30 month stay was extended in this case until 4/10/27, but then in another portion of the document, it says Elite “will submit a Paragraph III certification pursuant to [blabbity blah statute] that it is not seeking approval of ANDA No. 217939 until the date on which the Asserted Patents expire, namely August 24, 2027 with its next submission to the FDA in connection with ANDA 217939.”

“The parties agree that all claims asserted in this Action are dismissed without prejudice.”

Apparently, this is just a first glimpse of what is written in the "Stipulation of Dismissal" document.

Regarding the 180-day exclusivity period, I was reading Wolv's post, and it seems that this aspect is still debatable. The main point of this post is that the case was dismissed without prejudice.

reddit.com
u/ntosleo — 4 months ago
▲ 3 r/trading212

My 10k investment in penny stocks

Elite Pharmaceuticals - $ELTP

By far my biggest bet, generic pharma company with no debt and growing revenues. 

Revenues: 

  • 2021: 25 million 
  • 2022: 32 million 
  • 2023: 34 million 
  • 2024: 56 million 
  • 2025: 84 million

 

84 million dollars in revenues, the company is trading at 5 times it's revenues, the share price now not counting the growing pipeline of new drugs should be 0.80$/share double the current one.

On June 1, 2026, Elite Pharmaceuticals submitted an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) to the FDA for a generic version of a blockbuster anticoagulant drug with a 26 billion market according to IQVIA data. It's probable that the ANDA refers to Eliquis, that's a massive opportunity for ELTP, even if they capture 0,5% of that market, that would be equal to 130 million in extra revenues = 2$/share

My position: I will buy more, I think that this company can be worth 2$ per share at minimum.
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Sellas Lifesciences - $SLS 

Biotech company, is testing a vaccine for AML (Acute Mieloid Leukemia) their vaccine is named galinpepimut-S designed to prevent or delay cancer recurrence and prolong overall survival in patients who are already in clinical remission.

Their trial should have lasted until December 2025, we are in June 2026 and there are still 2 patients alive.

The company is looking for a buyer IF the results are successful, in that case the company can be worth 5-10 billion, around 20-40$/share.

My position: I'm not planning to buy more, only if it dips 

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Eon Resources - $EON
Small oil company located in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico

25$ their cost to lift a barrel of oil

60$ minimum price for them to make profit

current production edged between 62 and 75$ per barrel until 2027

Last year they where 40 million in debt, this year they were successful to retire all their debt and reach an agreement with Virtus Energy Partners thanks to this agreement they will have 3 vertical wells for free.

Current production: 1000bbl/day from 350 wells (they took old wells, fixed them and put them to work, so their cost structure is low)

They plan to build 92 vertical wells in the next 4-5 years, 500bbl/day each = 45k barrels a day in the next few years.

The CEO Dante Caravaggio is against any other dilution, the management is full of "crazy guys" (in a good way) like the Director Jose Salvucci Jr, he purchased more than 300k$ worth of shares more than his gross annual salary.

I will keep buying more shares in the next months, this is a good company, the share price will be easily worth 2$/share in the next years, the CEO Dante Caravaggio spent 20 years working in the oil industry in the middle east he knows what is he doing

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Aureus Greenway Holdins - $PUSA

3 facts: 

Aureus Greenway Holdings is a public golf country club owner and operator.

The Properties: The company owns and operates Kissimmee Bay Country Club and Remington Golf Club. Both properties span a combined 289 acres located just south of Orlando, Florida (in Kissimmee).

In March 2026, the Trump brothers backed the reverse merger of Aureus Greenway with Powerus, an American industrial and military drone manufacturer, transforming the combined entity into a public defense contractor. 

Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump each hold roughly 6% equity stakes in Dominari Securities, the placement agent that raised the $9 million private placement to fund the merger. Additionally, Donald Trump Jr. serves as an advisor and stakeholder to Unusual Machines (UMAC), another drone company that invested heavily into the Aureus Greenway private placement.

My position: maybe I will put another 2-300€

u/ntosleo — 4 months ago
▲ 194 r/grindr

After hooking up with 50+ guys, here’s a map of all the nationalities I’ve met:

I'm 26yo top dom based in Europe
Special mentions:

  • Germans: very kinky
  • Chinese: beautiful bottoms, reliable
  • Ukranians: handsome
  • Latin americans: somethimes they are too much but I enjoyed staying with them
  • Americans: straight to the point, sex was good
  • Irish: smooth, they are very "catholic" in sex
u/ntosleo — 5 months ago