u/piroteck

TL;DR - 2,850 homes Q3 and 3,560 homes Q4

Ok, so I broke and was playing with Parcl api as well as using Claude to visualize that data coupled with earnings and acquisitions. I wanted a some kind of baseline for a projected sales through the year.

I'd love for the group to interrogate the data. I haven't projected revenues off this yet because I wanted to give us a chance to consider this first.

This is in place of the daily thread for August 4th.

Top Questions - https://app.saytechnologies.com/opendoor-2026-q2
Last Earnings & Links - https://investor.opendoor.com/
Livestream Link - https://investor.opendoor.com/events/event-details/opendoor-second-quarter-2026-earnings-livestream

Was that guy wearing enough green!? We'll see soon enough.

u/DrRaveT helped with exposure recommendation (helped the most)
u/zeb_g added to the DLogM CST discussion
u/Hazzat had me asking the existential questions

Basically, I wanted people to feel the "reveal" so to speak. Flying that low and fast all you want to do is pull up and see the world. I tried to build a little tension with some quick cuts of low and fast runs with a little bit of the mountains in the background, up the hill, then the big reveal on a jump cut.

The before pictures are way worse: https://www.reddit.com/r/ColorGrading/comments/1um51zq/comment/ov9hm70/?screen_view_count=4

These are the after pictures. I did reshoot, but almost the exact same time of day (8:04pm vs 8:13pm, both dusk).

End Product: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DaW_36VCMlc/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

Shot four could use some highlights brought down for sure.

Feel free to keep up the criticism. Failure tends to breed improvement. Thanks to the folks that chimed in. That was really helpful.

I struggle with dusk-related grades especially on DLogM (10bit). All of these shots are from a single take FPV Avata2. I use a CST workflow. I can get some great shots in full sun and it seems like my exposure is still fine at this point. Something about sunset, dusk, or even cloudy times keeps me from getting a look I appreciate.

Any suggestions, criticisms, tear it up. I'd welcome it, regrade and repost.

Maybe I'm just not finding the right shot too. Like I know what I'm looking for in full sun or when I'm out and about with non-flying camera.

**sorry if this is old news

I've brought this up before. I just don't see a ton of discussion around it, so I figured a post wouldn't hurt. It also felt appropriate to post b4 the new numbers drop.

When this tracker first dropped, the green line predicted the least amount of acquisitions during the busiest time of the year for this industry.

I don't think that was an accident.

They anticipated, imo, that they would pick up less homes while everyone was selling successfully via the old way over the summer. Kaz wants to turn a profit, and they weren't going to buy high like everyone else in the summer. Hence, lower acquisitions on the projections in the busiest time of the season.

BUT, they found ways to continue to buy low and turn inventory even during the most competitive time of the year.

That has me really bullish for the winter when people really struggle to sell their homes. Acquisitions could explode as more desperate sellers enter the picture.

We've already proven that we're not buying unprofitable homes, we're finding the right homes to buy at a price and in a way to make record contribution margin per transaction. This is also in a bad macro environment.

What if a bunch more of the "right homes" are showing up when the rest of the industry is getting ready to go on vacation? What if Q4 has the highest margin/sales of the year?

Link: https://x.com/nejatian/status/2062150081554354181?s=46

Text:

I think I said the best way to judge the company is across three management objectives. I said that a few weeks after I took over. Those where 1) can we scale acquisitions 2) can we improve unit economics and resale velocity while reducing aged inventory and 3) can we build operating leverage (i.e. make sure our contribution margin could cover our fixed cost by increasing former and holding latter steady).

on 1) 500%ish YoY, and Q1 2026 was the highest acq since 2022 and double Q4 2025.

on 2) % of homes on the market over 120 Days declined from 51%+ when I took over to ~10% last quarter, over the same period the market went the other direction and went from like 20%ish to 33% ish. Contribution Margin has improved every single month since my first day and March was the highest contribution margin in any quarter for some time. October, November, December, and January cohorts are each selling faster than any corresponding cohort since COVID.

on 3) Fixed opex was down both QoQ and YoY. And trailing 12 moth opex as a % of revenue is steady at 1.3% QoQ and since CM is up we are going in the right direction.

Those are the financial numbers, but also if you look at the people who are coming into Opendoor - they are exceptional and I'd put them up against any tech company. If you look at our shipping velocity, it is higher than it is has been in years (possibly ever?). We went from 35% of the market to 95% market in coverage. Our capital light product went from 0 to a third of our volume. etc. etc.