AMA: We are launching what could end up being a paradigm shifting company in public forever.
▲ 0 r/founder+1 crossposts

AMA: We are launching what could end up being a paradigm shifting company in public forever.

We are building in the complete open. Forever.

partners.sontara.ai

What that means: going forward, any human on earth can ask to see our financials, what deals we're in, all of it, as long as it doesn't violate customer privacy. No backroom deals. And we keep working to expand access to real capability across humanity.

The image is the 3-year projection for Human Frontier Labs Inc.'s experiment with our flagship product, Sontara, through our partner program at partners.sontara.ai.

I think it's an incredibly frictionless business model based on https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/tres-preguntas-comas-cornelius-george-v3alc/

Here's how it works.

1) Is the problem big enough that solving it creates economic value?

Automation projects fail because consultants come in and tell you to automate your workflows. Those workflows were built for an old paradigm that gets older every day. They aren't adaptable.

Meanwhile, our estimate is that about 2% of adults use even one AI agent. The people operating with agents are doing insane things. I know because neither I nor my co-founder Willy could write a line of code before this. January 2025 for me, 2024 for Willy.

So what happens if we give the other 98% that ability without making them go through the obsession it takes to get there?

2) Are we solving the problem in the most efficient way possible?

Sontara is a general purpose agent that meets anyone where they are. Within 4 messages, users start to understand what is now possible for them. By the 7th message they have already completed agentic tasks and they can see how much their life is about to change for the better.

3) Are we making it easy for our customers to partner with us to solve the problem?

Anyone of legal age can go to partners.sontara.ai and claim their partner code. From there:

·       Click "Agents" in the top left and pick a plan to start your free 7-day trial

·       Use your own partner code. You get the 20% off it carries, and because you are your own first customer, you also get a discount equal to what you would be paid on a customer

·       Name and launch your agent

·       Introduce yourself to it in a natural conversation

Once you experience it, you can ask your agent at any time how to make money with the partner program.

Salespeople. Stay-at-home moms. Nurses. College students. MSPs. Agencies. Anyone.

The Sontara 7

We are looking for 7 advisors. Rather than hiring someone off a resume or who they know or some other artificial signal, we are using the partner program as the pool.

If we hit 35,000 by the end of the year, we are setting aside an equity pool of 7% of the shares outstanding in HFL for the Sontara 7. Full terms go out in writing before the first seat is filled. That 3-year projection assumes $92 per user per month, which is extremely conservative, and a 10% annual growth rate.

The subtle part

Because the product is a general AI agent, we can put CAC after revenue. That takes the LTV:CAC ratio out of the equation entirely. What we found in our research is that eliminating it and rewarding the users instead creates the potential for an exponentially growing profit balance.

We do it this way because we want to learn about this kind of distribution, and the folks in the Sontara 7 will have earned it. More details to follow.

Ask me anything.

edit: I know it's Reddit. If you think I'm full of shit, go try Sontara, then you can tell me how much of a moron I am, or whatever insult you kids use these days.

u/popcornjebus — 1 day ago

I traced the "9 out of 10 startups fail" stat to its source. There isn't one. (i will not promote)

Everyone in this community repeats the same number. Nine out of ten startups fail. We say it like it's gravity.

I have a mental tick where if something doesn't make sense I can't let it go. So I went looking for where the number actually comes from. It got worse the deeper I dug.

The most-linked source is a 2015 Forbes article that opens with the line. Its citation is a 2014 Fortune article that opens with the same sentence. Fortune's citation is nothing. Stated as received wisdom. The other big vector is Startup Genome's 2011 report, which asserts "more than 90% of startups fail" in its opening prose with zero citation. And one researcher who followed the trail all the way down found it dead-ends at a 1975 Dun and Bradstreet report... which never contained the number.

Here's what the data actually says. SBA business-survival numbers: about half of new businesses survive five years, about a third survive ten. Not great. Not 90%. Harvard's Shikhar Ghosh studied 2,000 venture-backed companies and found about 75% never return cash to investors. But read that carefully. That's a claim about investor returns, not survival. Define failure as actually liquidating the company and his number drops to 30 to 40%.

There is exactly one frame where 90% is defensible: the fraction of venture-backed startups that fail to produce venture-scale returns. Sit with that. The only true version of the axiom is a statement about VC portfolio math. A company can be alive, profitable, employing fifty people, solving real problems for paying customers... and still count as one of the nine, because it didn't return the fund.

And it's worse than folklore, because the number is baked into the model that spreads it. Funds price every deal expecting one or two winners, then prescribe every company the same path to the only outcome that makes the math work. The failures arrive on schedule and the number confirms itself for another generation of pitch decks. It's not a failure rate the industry observed. It's a failure rate the industry budgeted for.

A culture that worships first-principles thinking runs on a statistic nobody can source.

So I'll ask this sub what I keep asking myself: which other axioms are we all repeating that nobody has traced? And has anyone here actually changed how they operate after realizing the 90% is portfolio math, not a law about businesses?

reddit.com
u/popcornjebus — 13 days ago

Rewatched the whole series this year while running an AI startup. It stopped being a comedy somewhere around season 3.

Tres comas used to be the joke. Now I watch the middle-out arc and see a documentary with the serial numbers filed off.

The pitch scenes where every founder says the same "making the world a better place" line, I have sat in those rooms. The conjoined triangles of success is a real artifact I have been handed, with different clip art on it.

Russ Hanneman's "ROI: Radio On Internet" is the one that broke me, because I have now heard that exact pitch twice in real life with AI swapped in for radio, delivered with a completely straight face. Gavin's Signature Box III is every enterprise AI appliance announcement of the last two years.

Question for the sub: which bit aged hardest from satire into documentary? And does anyone else find Jian-Yang got funnier the longer they spent in tech, or is that just me.

reddit.com
u/popcornjebus — 14 days ago