
u/rematar

America Is Eerily Retracing Rome’s Steps to a Fall. Will It Turn Around Before It’s Too Late?
2020 article about comparisons between Trump and Caesar.
>Most objectionable to his critics, however, was the explosive form of his message, which threatened to tear the fabric of the state apart. Like Trump, Caesar spoke directly to the people, railing against traditional elites, complaining about noncitizens taking jobs and encouraging violence.
--------------
>The choice made by the Republic guaranteed that, ultimately, it did not survive the premiership of Caesar. Rather, his tenure left the state mortally divided, paralyzed by brutal street violence and sliding toward civil war—a war that Caesar himself would eventually lead against his internal enemies to become the most powerful man in the world—this time, for life. When he was finally removed, it wasn’t a legal repudiation at the ballot box—it was the grisly assassination of a dictator perpetuus, and the damage had already been done. After erupting again into civil war, the last vestiges of the Republic were extinguished when Caesar’s heir emerged the sole survivor to establish an absolute monarchy.
The AI Crash Nobody is Predicting (And What Wall Street is Ignoring)
Craig Tindale on a youtu.be channel talking about hard bifurcation, which is a separation of money being used for speculation rather than manufacturing things. An early part of the conversation is about how copper mines going into operation now were planned many years ago before the renewable and weapon demands. Seven mines a year should be opened rather than one. They also discuss that China does most of the refining of copper.
Top economist says $39 trillion national debt leaves government worse prepared for recession than ever
The U.S. has run into recessions with a messy fiscal situation before, but never this bad.
That’s the warning from Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok, who wrote in his Daily Spark newsletter on Tuesday the country is approaching a potential downturn “with this little fiscal buffer” for the first time in modern history.
Gross national debt is currently festering at $39 trillion and growing at what the Peter G. Peterson Foundation calls a “staggering” pace of accumulation. Debt held by the public has already overtaken annual GDP—just the interest alone that we pay on our debt runs at $3 billion a day, exceeding annual federal spending on Medicare or Medicaid.
That big, ugly, black hole of our debt is slowly sucking out the ability of the central bank to respond to recessions, Slok argues.
Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]: https://fortune.com/2026/05/14/national-debt-gdp-recession-39-trillion-torsten-slok/?utm_source=reddit/
Comment from a post using an internal combustion car as a metaphor for our oil based society
reddit.comThe End Of The Petro-Dollar
This video talks about the potential end of the petro dollar. He believes US bond prices might be driving foreign policy and a version of the Buffett Indicator from which he subtracts US government debt to indicate the health of the markets.
Disruptions to feedstock for agriculture and mining could disrupt markets for the next several years.
Brent crude at $111/barrel marks eight weeks of Hormuz closure, the longest sustained chokepoint blockade in modern history.
Iran has formally submitted a peace proposal with nuclear negotiations deferred to later stages, meaning Trump's response in the next two weeks determines whether $111 is a ceiling or a floor. A single LNG tanker broke through after eight weeks, which markets are watching obsessively, but one transit is not reopening. Even after a ceasefire, analysts project shipping insurance at 20x pre-war rates, so the economic damage outlasts the shooting by months. Iran's domestic storage is filling fast under the US naval blockade, which likely explains why Tehran moved on diplomacy now rather than later.
The conflict is also quietly destroying the sanctions toolkit itself. The sanctions circumvention infrastructure being built right now will persist after any ceasefire, wiring around restrictions permanently. BP's profit more than doubled on war-driven trading, redistributing wealth from consumers to producers at exactly the moment governments are absorbing cost-of-living pressure. Ray Dalio is now flagging stagflation, which would eliminate the Fed's ability to respond to an oil shock with conventional tools. A fire at RAF Fairford, the B-2/B-52 staging base for Iran strikes, is under active Pentagon investigation; confirmed sabotage would be the first successful infrastructure attack on a NATO base in this conflict.
The AI power struggle running in parallel is not separate from this. China vetoed Meta's $2B acquisition of Manus after a months-long probe, deploying regulatory tools against Western AI consolidation in direct mirror of US chip export controls. Simultaneously, OpenAI restructured its Microsoft revenue-sharing to enable a $50B Amazon deal, fracturing the assumption of single-vendor dependency at the frontier model layer. AlphaGo architect David Silver just raised $1.1B at a $5.1B valuation for a months-old lab building AI that learns without human data, which the market is betting bypasses the data bottleneck constraining every current LLM. SK Hynix NAND revenue surged 248% year-on-year, confirming the AI buildout is creating commodity supercycles well beyond GPUs.
Moody's raised China's credit outlook during peak energy disruption, positioning Beijing as the relative safe harbor for sovereign debt flows. The Pentagon publicly told Congress it has no defense against hypersonic or cruise missiles while requesting $185B for Golden Dome, the most consequential admission of US strategic vulnerability in years.