u/ruby-cos

Running a trend-following agent (EMA 12/26, 4h) on ZEC with $500 of simulated money.

After five weeks: +9.45%, max drawdown 6.84%, 7 closed trades plus one open short, fees about $0.52. For reference, BTC is up roughly 4% over the same period.

It only puts about 20% of the account into each trade, so most of the capital sits in cash by design. On that roughly $100 per trade, the agent made about $46 (including the open short). Holding $100 of ZEC over the same stretch would have made about $26. Measured against the full $500, simply holding ZEC (up roughly 26%) would have beaten it. Position size is adjustable, so a more aggressive setting would change these numbers a lot, in both directions.

Small sample, simulated money. I’ll keep tracking it.

Current performance: +6.55%

Since late August I've been buying $25 of BTC every day. My first buy was around $78K (check this against your day-1 fill), my average entry is now about $80.7K, and BTC is trading around $86K.

I don't know how to pick bottoms and tops, so I DCA. The amount is small, but making a profit beats doing nothing, right? Small gains, no greed. That's the mindset that keeps you alive in this market long term.

Anyone else running a DCA plan right now?

Among the 375,740 users who participated in Meme coin trading on the Robinhood Chain FOMO platform since its launch, 95.2% experienced losses or profits below $100. Only 229 users profited over $10,000, accounting for 0.06%, 653 users profited over $5,000, accounting for 0.17%.

This data reflects a high concentration of profits in Meme coin trading, with most retail participants failing to achieve significant gains.

That’s not trading. It’s gambling.

I started a small-scale daily BTC buying plan a few days ago so I wouldn't miss the next bull run. Nothing special, just letting it run in the background.

A question for those more experienced than me: Are the fees for auto DCA higher than manual buying? I haven't researched it in detail yet. Even if I find out the fees are higher in the end, I'll still stick to it because I'm lazy, and I'll definitely forget about manual buying hahaha.

https://x.com/saylor/status/2094033266906955896

Based on past patterns, Strategy typically discloses its increased Bitcoin holdings the day after the relevant news is released. Strategy's most recent disclosure of increased Bitcoin holdings was on June 22, 2026, and it hasn't released any Bitcoin Tracker related information in the last two weeks.

Will we see Strategy's first Bitcoin purchase of Q3 soon?

It’s me.

I expected this bounce to stop around 70k. But it went much higher and kept going. I thought there would be one more drop before this cycle really hit bottom. After watching the data for a week, I changed my mind. For the past few days, I've mostly just been watching the MVRV Z-Score.

In the past, bull market tops always pushed this indicator into the red zone. And bear market bottoms always pushed it into the green zone. Last cycle broke that pattern completely. The top happened without ever touching red. In June, we got close to green, near zero, but never fully reached it either. If the last top happened without touching red, why can't this bottom start a new upward move without touching green? My guess is that as Bitcoin's market gets bigger, these swings get smaller each cycle.

There's also a pattern in how this indicator moves when the market changes from bear to bull. It usually goes almost straight up, then moves sideways for a while, then keeps climbing. Right now, it's starting to look like that same straight-up move. If this pattern is right, the real bottom might already be behind us, somewhere around 57k.

Not everything matches perfectly. Bear market bottoms usually come with a big jump in trading volume, and we haven't seen that this time. But the last bull top didn't match every signal either before it turned into a bear market. So I'm not using "the data isn't complete" as a reason to ignore what's actually changing.

There's probably still one more small drop coming. But it will probably be a smaller shake-up, not a big flush down.

I don't think this bounce holds. One more sharp flush before this cycle actually bottoms, that's my read, and I think a lot of people calling this "the reversal" are gonna get caught leaning the wrong way.

The Treasury's debt buyback operation lit a fire under BTC, gold, and silver all at once. That part's real. But equities barely moved. If this were genuinely risk-on money flooding back into the system, stocks would've caught a bid too. They didn't. So either this rally is narrower than people think, or it's more mechanical than it looks. Probably both.

Spot BTC ETFs flipped from outflows to $626M of inflows in just 4 trading days, BlackRock leading it, while the Fear & Greed Index was sitting around 25. Extreme fear. Institutions buying while retail's still scared, that combo has been a pretty reliable tell historically. I don't think this move is fake underneath. I just don't think the timing is clean.

On-chain data's showing whales quietly stacking over the past few weeks, well before price actually reacted. That kind of positioning usually shows up ahead of volatility, not ahead of a smooth grind higher.

And back in June, MicroStrategy's stock decoupled hard from the value of the BTC it actually holds. STRC got dragged down with it too, bottoming in the low $70s (intraday low around $71 on June 26th), purely on panic. Not fundamentals. That kind of dislocation tends to get fixed violently. Both directions.

Every time retail starts calling the bottom this loudly after one green candle, that's usually the setup, not the resolution. I've watched this exact pattern play out at least three times this cycle. Fear, quiet accumulation, a sharp bounce that pulls in the FOMO crowd, then one more flush that clears them out before the real move starts.

Could be wrong. But I'm positioning for one more leg down before this is actually over.

Not financial advice. Just where I've landed after watching the data. Tell me why I'm wrong.