u/usffan

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

College football has plenty of examples of schools firing a head coach because they think they should be better than they are, and with the benefit of hindsight it was probably a bad choice. Nebraska (think more Frank Solich and less Bo Pelini) is probably the textbook answer here, but FIU firing Mario Cristobal is a much better one. Why bring that up? Today’s team is California (high = 42, low = 75). What if I told you that Cal’s firing of their last 3 head coaches have all been a bit of a head scratcher? Between 1959 and 2001, Cal managed to go to 5 bowls. That’s when the Golden Bears hired Jeff Tedford, who took over a 1-10 team and had 9 winning seasons in his first 10 years, 8 bowl appearances, a top 10 finish and a share of the Pac-12 title in 2006. After a single 3-9 season in 2012, Cal decided to fire Tedford and replace him with Sonny Dykes. Bringing in an air raid guy before the transfer era required some growing pains, but Dykes got them back to a bowl within 3 years, but was shockingly fired weeks after interviewing for the Baylor coaching position (and months after getting a contract extension – Dykes went on to rebuild SMU and then take TCU to a CFP championship game within 6 years). The Bears then went with defensive coach Justin Wilcox, who again had to remodel the team out of the air raid, but got Cal to 5 bowls in his 9 seasons, including each of the last 3. GM Ron Rivera decided that wasn’t good enough, so he made the move to fire Wilcox, and now the Bears are going with alumnus Tosh Lupoi, but giving him far more resources (presumable from the money UCLA is paying them to be allowed by the state to leave the Pac-12) than any of his predecessors. Can the Calgorithm rise again in 2026?

Roster Outlook

Lupoi (and/or Rivera) have used those resources well, pulling in the 14th best portal class in FBS (good for 3rd in the ACC) as well as sprinkling in enough to also pull in a top 50 high school recruiting class (14th in the conference). That leads to the Bears having the 43rd most returning production, but the bulk of that is on offense (11th), counting on Lupoi to be able to build a defense (90th) on his own. In fact, Lupoi brought in 12 P4 defensive players, including 3 that came with him from Oregon, to build on that side of the ball, where they do retain at least 2 starters with 40+ tackles (DB Aiden Manutai and LB Aaron Hampton). But let’s face it, discussion of Cal starts and ends with QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (JKS), who spent a good 3 weeks with Lupoi at Oregon, saw that Rose Bowl thumping by Ohio State and yeeted out of Eugene faster than Cliff Harris on High-5 and landed in Berkeley. JKS reportedly had tons of offers to transfer, but decided to stay in the 510, bringing his 3,400+ yards and 18TDs back for his sophomore season. But Lupoi is surrounding him with a different cast of skill players, trading RB Kendrick Raphael to SMU to land Washington RB Adam Mohammed. He also brought in Oregon WR Cooper Perry and Rutgers WR Ian Strong to shore up the receiving corps.

Schedule and outlook

9/5 UCLA

9/12 at Syracuse

9/19 WAGNER

9/25 CLEMSON

10/3 at UNLV

10/10 VIRGINIA TECH

10/17 WAKE FOREST

10/24 at SMU

10/31 at NC State

11/7 BYE

11/14 at Virginia

11/21 STANFORD

11/28 PITTSBURGH

Cal has proven capable of knocking off quality teams in the last few years, including ranked SMU and Louisville last year, taking down Auburn on the road in 2024 and that unbelievable Gameday game against Miami in 2024 that harkened back to the era of the Pac-12 after dark. So, truth be told, there’s no game on this schedule that you can look at and say “Cal’s totally getting waxed in that game.” Which makes their placement as the 5th worst team in the ACC in these aggregated rankings more than a little strange. They avoid Miami and Louisville, get SMU (a team they beat last year, but you figure that’s still the game in which they’ll be the biggest underdogs) and get Clemson late on a Friday night in Berkeley, along with hosting their next two toughest ACC opponents (Virginia Tech and Pitt). If (which is admittedly doing a lot of work here) Lupoi is a decent coach, you can imagine the Bears potentially getting to 9 wins for the first time since 2008, which would give them something to seriously build off of.

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

It’s July 4, 2026. The United States is a country! They’re 250! The school of the man who inspired that opening line, Oklahoma State (high = 36, low = 92) is next up on our countdown as we hit the 8 week mark before the start of the season. Mike Gundy had a pretty unprecedented run of success as the Cowboys head coach, taking them to 18 consecutive bowl games in the middle stretch of his 21 year run in Stillwater, an outright Big XII title (in the era when they had Oklahoma, Texas and Texas A&M), two more Big XII championship game appearances, 5 New Year’s Six bowl appearances, 3 top ten finishes of 11 seasons finishing the season ranked, and 170 wins, easily their all-time winningest coach. And that famous quote about coming after him. But maybe it’s a different quote that kind of defines him. In The Dark Knight, Harvey Dent (and later Batman) says “You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain,” which is kind of what most football coaches have to deal with when they have success at a program. If they do a good job of building/rebuilding a program, a bigger fish (“there’s always a bigger fish,” Qui-Gon Jinn, circa 1999) comes along and offers you money to coach their team. In Gundy’s case, Tennessee did this (reportedly several times), but he stayed at his alma mater. But “everything ends badly, otherwise it wouldn’t end” (Brian Flanagan, Cocktail, 1988), and Gundy’s end came fast and emphatically, winning only 4 of his final 11 games that saw the Cowboys go winless in the conference in consecutive seasons for the first time since the end of the Pat Jones era. After finishing the season under interim head coach Doug Meacham, Oklahoma State hired Eric Morris away from North Texas, and the Cowboys enter 2026 as one of the most intriguing teams in the country.

Roster Outlook

Morris engineered a complete roster overhaul that saw 66 players exit through the portal and 74 new players join the team (19 from high school, 55 via the portal). While that’s the worst high school recruiting class in the conference, their portal class only trails Texas Tech in the Big XII, which was good enough for 15th in the country. That leads to the Cowboys ranking 42nd in the country in “returning” production, but the bulk of that production is actually just arriving in Stillwater from elsewhere. Ourlads shows the entire starting offense (and all but 3 of their backups) as fresh portal players, and 35 of the 44 players on the two deep as incoming transfers. So we’ll dispense with who was lost and just look at who will be lining up. North Texas sensation Drew Mestemaker (4,379 yards passing, 34 TDs) followed Morris to Oklahoma State, one of 16 Mean Green players to get on the plane. Others are RB Caleb Hawkins (1,800+ total yards, 29 TDs), leading WR Wyatt Young (1,264 receiving yards, 10 TDs) and 40% of their projected starting OL. No issues with them being able to hit the ground running! Throw in a pair of other P4 WRs (Illinois’ Justin Bowick and Wake Forest’s Chris Barnes) and Morris’ up tempo offense should be ready to roll. If they can pair it with a stout enough defense (the Mean Green were prone to giving up a truckload of points when facing competent offenses), they could be cooking with gas.

Schedule and outlook

9/5 at Tulsa

9/12 OREGON

9/19 MURRAY STATE

9/26 at West Virginia

10/3 BYE

10/10 UCF

10/17 at Houston

10/24 COLORADO

10/31 at Iowa State

11/7 at Kansas State

11/14 TEXAS TECH

11/21 at Arizona State

11/28 KANSAS

That schedule really does set the Cowboys up to get off to a strong start. While beating Oregon in week 2 would be a tall order (though the Ducks will be breaking in a new DC, they’re also loaded on that side of the ball), they should be favored in their other 4 opening games (though that road trip to Morgantown won’t be a gimme), and would be projected to be bowl eligible before traveling to the Little Apple to start off a November that gets a big dicier. It’s probably not surprising that Oklahoma State is still picked in the bottom half of the conference (and fortunately catches all 4 of the teams ranked below them here) because of the unknown, but their ceiling is actually pretty high in 2026 – a far cry from how the last couple of years have felt in Stillwater.

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

We’ve reached #58 on the countdown and… bah Gawd that’s the SEC’s music! Call the Hogs, everybody, it’s Arkansas (high 40, low = 109)! You know, college football has a billion sliding doors moments, but almost all of them are moments that happened on the football field. If Tom Osborne kicks the PAT at the end of the 1984 Orange Bowl, does Miami become MIAMI and go on to win 5 national championships? If Saban doesn’t get that extra second put on the clock in 2013, Auburn doesn’t get the kick 6 and does Florida State win the national championship, getting Jimbo Fisher a giant payday at Texas A&M? If the refs don’t miscount the downs, does Georgia Tech win an undisputed national championship in 1990? But those are on the field sliding doors. The bulk of the off the field ones are realignment related, but the only one that involves a motorcycle is Bobby Petrino wrecking his hog with his mistress (who worked on his staff, pun intended), forcing Arkansas to fire him. The thing is, Petrino finally had the Razorbacks humming in their new SEC home after nearly 2 decades, finishing the 2011 season 11-2, with those 2 losses being to the two teams that played in the national championship game (LSU and Alabama), both on the road. They finished the season ranked #5, and the future looked bright! But that fateful drive down Highway 16 sealed the deal, and a string of bad coaching hires (John L. Smith, Bert Bielema, Chad Morris, Sam Pittman) led to another dry spell with one winning SEC record in the last 14 years. The Razorbacks hit the reset button again with Ryan Silverfield, who checks notes never made an AAC title game and posted a 12-20 record against teams with a winning record as a head coach. Which won’t matter because the SEC definitely doesn’t have a bunch of teams with better than .500 records, right?

Roster Outlook

If I told you that Silverfield brought in the #33 ranked transfer portal class in the country, paired it with the #46 high school recruiting class for an overall incoming class of #42, you’d probably think that was pretty decent. Until I then followed it up by pointing out that those rank 14th, 15th and 16th (dead last) respectively in the SEC. Then you’d appreciate the challenge facing the Razorbacks in climbing back to even middle of the pack in a loaded conference that has to have 8 teams finish in the bottom half when 8 different schools have won the national championship in the last 27 years. That the Hogs rank 56th in returning production and 67th on the offensive side of the ball definitely doesn’t help matters one bit. Arkansas lost 4 NFL draft picks, including 3 on offense (OL Fernando Carmona, RB Mike Washington and QB Taylen Green), so Silverfield is having to replace more than 4,500 yards and 35 TDs right out of the gate. Backup QB KJ Jackson got a couple of games at the end of 2025 under his belt, and Silverfield brought his prize recruit AJ Hill with him from Memphis, who didn’t quite impress in his limited playing time for the Tigers as a freshman. Washington’s backup Braylen Russell and former Memphis RB Sutton Smith figure to compete for carries out of the backfield. Arkansas also lost their top 3 receivers (WRs O’Mega Blake and Raylen Sharpe as well as TE Rohan Jones), all of whom exhausted their eligibility, but the next two guys in terms of stats (WR CJ Brown and TE Jaden Platt) will be asked to step up, joined by former Boise State WR Chris Marshall. In all, Silverfield brought in 20 P4 transfer guys compared with only 6 from Memphis, so he’s not exactly going the Eric Morris route, while losing 17 of their 41 outgoing guys to P4 programs. On its face, this figures to be something of a slow rebuild.

Schedule and outlook

9/5 NORTH ALABAMA

9/12 at Utah

9/19 GEORGIA

9/26 TULSA

10/3 at Texas A&M

10/10 TENNESSEE

10/17 at Vanderbilt

10/24 BYE

10/31 MISSOURI

11/7 at Auburn

11/14 SOUTH CAROLINA

11/21 at Texas

11/28 LSU

Boys, that schedule looks pretty freaking rough. Sure, they should beat their FCS tune-up and Tulsa, but Arkansas is ranked considerably below every other team on their schedule, and even their remaining OOC game is at Utah and their ‘lil azz stadium 4,600+ feet above sea level. A path to bowling means winning at least 3 conference games, and if you squint you start to think at Vandy and then the home games against Mizzou and South Carolina. And sure, perhaps the Razorbacks can pull off one of those. But all 3? And in the era where Cignetti turned things around instantly at Indiana? Given the history of how well Memphis coaches have had success in their next stops (Justin Fuente and Mike Norvell)? Good luck, Hog bros - I think you're going to need it!

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

Victor Willis died on Tuesday. Who is that and why is it at the top of today’s countdown? Willis was the lead singer and songwriter for The Village People, their second biggest hit song was “In the Navy,” and he didn’t survive to see Navy (high = 46, low = 72) in the countdown. Wherever he is, I hope he’s imagining the Midshipmen enter the season #1. Navy is really in a quarter-century run of good football (not historically their best given they’ve actually won national championships, are in the club of schools that have played in the Rose, Orange, Sugar and Cotton Bowls and had a decade between 1954 and 1963 where they finished ranked in the top five 4 times, including Roger Staubach’s Heisman winning year) that started in Paul Johnson’s second season. Ken Niumatalolo kept the ship afloat after Johnson was hired away to Georgia Tech, and once the USNA joined the American Athletic Conference in 2015, he had the Midshipmen tied for a divisional title in 3 of the first 5 seasons, reaching the championship game in 2016 before falling to Matt Ruhle’s Temple Owls. Brian Newberry took over after a lull that followed, and he’s lead Navy to consecutive double digit winning seasons, finishing #23 last season. Entering 2026 as the top ranked American team (and 2nd highest ranked G6 school), can they win their first conference championship?

Roster Outlook

As with all of the service academies, things like recruiting rankings and transfer portals go out the window. These men go there with a very different calling than simply playing time, NIL and maximizing their draft potential. Navy ranks 93rd in returning production, but it’s skewed heavily to the defense (31st in the country) and they’ll have almost complete turnover on the offense (121st). They brought in 51 new recruits, only 8 of whom were rated by 247, and though nobody ever transfers in, they only lost 3 players to the portal. Their star QB Blake Horvath is now commissioned as a Navy aviator, and his backup Braxton Woodson, who sunk USF’s CFP hopes last season with a pair of 4th quarter TD runs when filling in for an injured Horvath, is expected to be the new starter. Their next 3 highest rushers (Alex Tecza, Brandon Chapman and Eli Heidenreich) also all graduated, the latter actually in camp with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The only non QB with double digit carries returning is Charles Robinson, and he had 10. Navy doesn’t sling the ball around the yard, but Heidenreich had half of the team’s total receptions, and the leading returning receiver, Luke Hutchison, had 5 catches. So figure the Midshipmen to be very stout on defense as they look to get some offensive reps in the early parts of the season.

Schedule and outlook

9/5 TOWSON

9/12 at Florida Atlantic

9/19 BYE

9/25 at UAB

10/3 at Air Force

10/10 TULSA

10/17 at UTSA

10/24 NORTH TEXAS

10/31 vs. Notre Dame (at Foxborough, MA)

11/7 TEMPLE

11/14 BYE

11/21 MEMPHIS

11/28 at Charlotte

12/5 potential American Conference championship game

12/12 vs. Army (at East Rutherford, NJ)

This schedule sets up to do exactly that very well, though going on the road after your FCS tuneup game until the leaves change will test their mettle. With respect to the AC, they avoid 4 of the top 6 ranked conference teams in official conference games (Tulane, USF, ECU and Army) and host Memphis coming off a bye, so the biggest roadblock to hosting the American championship game in Annapolis is that road game in the Alamodome. They figure to be favorites for the Commander-in-Chief trophy, and if they can manage to pull off the unthinkable in Foxborough, would be the likely favorite for the G6 CFP bid.

Editor’s note – I got hold of Phil Steele’s preseason rankings, which shook up the actual rankings a bit. The new rankings are reflected on the cumulative link below.

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

(John Denver singing) – “Number sixty, West Virginia! Burning couches, ‘Eat Shit Pitt’ forever!” West Virginia (high = 50, low = 70) becomes the fourth Big XII team to enter the countdown in year 2 of Rich Rod’s return to Morgantown. In 2001, Rodriguez’ first year head coaching the Mountaineers, they lost 8 games, but followed that up with a 9 win season and finished the year ranked. Upon his return last year after replacing Neal Brown, he lost 8 games again (with the sole bright spot of winning the Backyard Brawl), but cleaned house after the season. Any chance he can recapture the magic and get WVU to 9 wins? Or at least back to bowling?

Roster Outlook

Rich Rod always has had an eye for talent (Pat White, Steve Slaton, Noel Devine, Tavon Austin, Pacman Jones, Chris Henry), so it’s no surprise that he did a bang up job in recruiting with a year in place. WVU pulled in the #25 high school recruiting class, good for 3rd in the Big XII. While his portal class wasn’t quite as high (57th nationally, 14th in the conference), he did clean house, with 50 guys leaving through the portal, only 9 of whom landed at a P4 school while 16 never found a landing spot at all. That led to the Mountaineers having the 66th most returning production, with more losses on defense (86th) than offense (55th). Last year’s season opening starting QB Nicco Marchiol is one of those 9, portaling to Northwestern, and his first backup, Khalil Wilkins, moved 200 miles southwest to Marshall. While Scotty Fox, who finished the second half of the season under center, is still on the team, look for Oklahoma transfer Michael Hawkins to be the signal caller this year. WVU also had something of a running back by committee last year with 5 different guys rushing for between 130 and 330 yards and their two leading guys portaling to Wyoming and UConn, Rodriguez brought Cam Cook from Jacksonville State to take over the primary rushing duties. Primary WR Cam Vaughn transferred to Miami, and the next two top receivers (Jeff Weimer and Rodney Gallagher) are also gone (exhausted eligibility or portaled to Arizona), but former USC WR Prince Strachan, LSU WR TaRon Francis and Troy WR DJ Epps figure to be suitable replacements.

Schedule and outlook

9/5 COASTAL CAROLINA

9/12 TENNESSEE-MARTIN

9/19 vs. Virginia (Charlotte, NC)

9/26 OKLAHOMA STATE

10/3 at Iowa State

10/10 ARIZONA

10/17 CINCINNATI

10/24 at TCU

10/31 BYE

11/7 at Texas Tech

11/14 KANSAS

11/21 HOUSTON

11/27 at Utah

I have to say, if you believe in Rich Rod’s ability to still be a good coach (and I do), this schedule’s not exactly intimidating. WVU has a good fan base, and I expect that neutral site game in Charlotte to have a pro-Mountaineers crowd, and I won’t be shocked if WVU is 5-0 and ranked when hosting Arizona (think Rodriguez will be motivated in that game?). In fact, the only games that figure to have WVU as big dogs are at Texas Tech and maybe at Utah. I think bowling is the floor for this team in 2026, and if WVU starts building momentum, they could be a force in the Big XII for a while, since I don’t think Rich Rod is going to have a wandering eye again.

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

We’re down to just 3 G6 programs left in the countdown, two of which are from the American and one of which we’ve reached today, Tulane (high = 32, low = 87). If you’re old enough, you may remember Tulane as a founding member of the SEC who has 3 SEC championship trophies in their trophy case (in other words, as many as Kentucky, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Missouri, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt combined!). Or, if you’re Gen Z or later, you think of Tulane as the team that has been in the last 4 American Conference championship games (and 5 of the last 8), compiling a 43-14 record in the last 4 years with 2 conference championship wins, a Cotton Bowl victory over USC and Heisman winner Caleb Williams and a CFP appearance last season. What’s in between is a fairly sobering period where they voluntarily left the SEC, suffered almost 3 decades wandering the independent wilderness and crawled their way back to relevance through Conference USA and eventually the American with 14 winning seasons over a 67 year period that had the sole bright spot of a perfect 1998 season. Willie Fritz, who had lots of success at lower levels of college football including a pair of FCS national championship game appearances at Sam Houston, was the one who got them back on the right track, and when he was hired away to Houston after the 2023 season, Tulane hired another coach with a history of success in Jon Sumrall. Now that Sumrall is off to coach the Florida Gators, the Green Wave turned to internal hire Will Hall, who was an abject disaster in his 3.5 years at Southern Miss (as seen by the way Charles Huff turned them right around last year before getting poached himself to Memphis). This sure looks like a risky move for Tulane heading into 2026.

Roster Outlook

Tulane, much like a number of American schools, lost a ton of production, ranking 117th in the country, with much of that production gone from the offensive side of the ball (11th worst in the nation). QB Jake Retzlaff, who led the Green Wave in passing AND rushing (3,800 total yards, 31 total TDs) went undrafted but is out of eligibility, the guy who had the most rushing attempts and most non-QB rushing TDs (Javin Gordon) portaled to Tennessee and two of their top 3 WRs (Shazz Preston and Omari Hayes) and their 1,200+ receiving yards also transferred out to Indiana and Iowa State, respectively. The bulk of their returning production comes in the form of RB Jamauri McClure (83 carries for 540 yards) and WR Anthony Brown-Stephens (41 catches for 523 yards). While Hall brought in the conference’s #1 high school recruiting class (59th in the country), they were middle of the pack with respect to the portal (7th in the AC, 83rd in the nation), meaning the depth chart is probably going to skew young. The QB battle appears to be between one-time Ball State QB Kadin Semonza and Houston transfer Zeon Chriss-Gremillion, both of whom last started a game in college in 2024. Hall did bring in former Florida State RB Jaylin Lucas, who had 173 yards rushing in his prior 2 seasons, and 3 P4 WRs (LSU’s Destyn Hill, Syracuse’s Gabe Daniels and UCF’s Bredell Richardson). Sure makes Paul Myerberg’s #32 ranking seem ambitious to me…

Schedule and outlook

9/5 at Duke

9/12 SOUTH ALABAMA

9/19 at Kansas State

9/26 SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

10/3 BYE

10/10 at Army

10/16 MEMPHIS

10/24 UTSA

10/30 at Charlotte

11/7 TULSA

11/14 at Rice

11/21 NORTH TEXAS

11/28 at South Florida

Tulane’s OOC schedule that includes a pair of P4 road games in the first 3 weeks, should really tell the tale of whether Hall is able to really keep Tulane at the top of the American. Neither is remotely considered the top team in their conference (despite Duke being the defending ACC champs). If the Green Wave is able to knock off one or both of them, they could legitimately emerge as a CFP contender. It’s also notable that they avoid Navy, who if you haven’t noticed is these aggregated rankings prediction to win the American, but do get the next 4 highest ranked teams (USF, Memphis, UTSA and Army) in an even home/road split, three of them in consecutive weeks. If they reach Halloween undefeated in conference, it’s a foregone conclusion that they’ll be playing in the championship game for a fifth consecutive year. But if is doing a ton of work there, and you have to wonder how Hall will handle the pressure knowing how badly he fumbled things in his last head coaching stint.

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

I’ve got some good news for the #62 team in this year’s preseason countdown, UNLV (high = 39, low = 78). You don’t have to worry about Boise State standing in your way of winning the conference championship game this year! The Rebels have played in the Mountain West conference championship each of the last three seasons, only to fall there to Boise State. But with the Broncos off to their new Pac-12 home, it frees up UNLV to try to do something they’ve never done before – win (and retain – their 1984 PCAA title was rescinded by the NCAA for using academically ineligible players; if only time travel existed so that they would have known the tactic of seeking an injunction to prevent that) an outright conference championship. The Rebels are on what is arguably their best ever run of football success, going bowling for each of the last 3 seasons, the first time they’ve ever even gone to the postseason in consecutive seasons in their history. Barry Odom started this wave, wiping away the painful memories of a number of terrible coaching hires (Marcus Arroyo, Tony Sanchez, Bobby Hauck, Mike Sanford – the list goes on) that had returned just one winning season in the prior 30 years. When Odom got hired away to Purdue, UNLV replaced him with Dan Mullen, a guy who’s taken his team bowling in 12 of the last 13 seasons where he’s been the head coach. How will he do as the clear favorite in 2026?

Roster Outlook

Well, he’s going to have to deal with some churn, because UNLV ranks 116th in returning production, including in triple digits on both sides of the ball. QB Anthony Colandrea (4,100 total yards, 33 TDs) is off to Nebraska, and his replacement figures to be a battle of names you all know, former Oklahoma/Auburn transfer Jackson Arnold or former Michigan all-name player Alex Orji. Starting RB Jai’Den Thomas (1,036 yards, 12 TDs) is back for his senior year, but the Rebels lost their top 4 WRs (Jaden Bradley’s in camp with the Washington Commanders, keeping poor Brandon Aiyuk from fulfilling his wishes of moving to the nation’s capital). Mullen, whose forte was definitely not recruiting while he was a Florida, didn’t exactly set the world on fire with replacements, bringing in Kentucky WR Troy Stellato. Still, he brought in the #1 portal AND high school recruiting class in the new version of the Mountain West, so it’s no huge surprise that the Rebels enter the season as the presumptive team to beat in a weakened conference.

Schedule and outlook

8/29 MEMPHIS

9/5 at Hawaii

9/12 at North Texas

9/19 BYE

9/26 at Akron

10/3 CALIFORNIA

10/10 NORTH DAKOTA STATE

10/17 at Air Force

10/24 BYE

10/31 NORTHERN ILLINOIS

11/7 WYOMING

11/14 at New Mexico

11/21 at San Jose State

11/28 NEVADA

What a strange OOC, where you get a couple of quality home games (potential CFP competitor Memphis plus preseason darling Cal) while traveling to North Texas (which would have looked great last year, but this year… not so much) and Akron. If UNLV is up to snuff, it’s not inconceivable they go 4-0 OOC. But in a worst case scenario, you could see them dropping either road game if they’re unprepared. Odds are really high it’s the former. With respect to the conference, getting North Dakota State at Allegiant is nice, but they do travel to the other top conference teams (New Mexico, Hawaii, Air Force), making this schedule a bit more tricky than you’d expect. Still, you have to figure they’ll be playing for more than the Fremont Cannon in the season finale.

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

Folks, the restraint I’m going to have to show today needs to be appreciated. Because today I’m going to be forced to talk about UCF (high = 60, low = 66), and let me just go ahead and call them C. or Central Florida here and get it out of my system.

UCF is looking to rebound from finishing with a losing season in each of the last 3 years. Not quite what they imagined when Scott Frost led them to their Colley Matrix national championship just 8 seasons before. When he left to take his dream job at Nebraska, a steady decline in production began, first under Josh Heupel, who had them back in the NY6 in 2018 but dropped further from there (and didn’t generate much sadness when he left for Tennessee) and then riding Malzahn’s Gus Bus all the way down (though he did lead them to a win over Florida in his first year, so at least there’s that!).

Conference realignment came along such that UCF, along with Cincinnati and Houston, joined the Big XII in 2023. That step up in competition didn’t do them any favors, as they managed to qualify for a bowl in year 1, but haven’t been able to replicate even that bar since then.

Knight fans are hoping that Scott Frost’s return can serve as a rebirth of their aspirations after they brought him back to Oviedo last season. By way of reminder, Frost lost 7 games in year one before their perfect season in year 2, and they’d dearly love for history to repeat itself after last year’s 5-7 finish.

Roster Outlook

UCF does rank reasonably high in terms of returning production, ranking 29th overall – 41st on offense and 37th on defense. With Frost retaining both coordinators (Steve Cooper and Alex Grinch), the hope is that the continuity will pay dividends this year.

Coming into this season, UCF has to replace most of their skill players. Tayven Jackson (off to North Texas), Cam Fancher (Michigan State), Jacurri Brown (Rice) and Davi Belfort (James Madison) combined to throw all but 5 of UCF’s passes last year, and all are gone. Replacing them at QB are JMU’s Alonza Barnett, but don’t sleep on FIU’s Keyone Jenkins as a viable option. Both of UCF’s RBs signed as undrafted free agents, Myles Montgomery to the Patriots and Jaden Nixon to the Packers. With their most likely replacement Stacy Gage hopping on the Lane Train, it looks like a battle between Louisville’s Duke Watson and Central Arkansas’ Landen Chambers (who Ourlands thinks is ahead at the moment). Leading WRs Duane Thomas (528 yards) and Waden Charles (290 yardss) are both back for the black and gold, as is top TE Dylan Wade (with a team leading 5 TD receptions).

Frost didn’t really do much on the recruiting trail, bringing in the 2nd from the worst high school recruiting (75th in the nation) and portal (64th in the country), which combines to give the Knights the worst overall incoming class in the Big XII. So is there enough in the cupboard to charge on?

Schedule and outlook

9/3 BETHUNE-COOKMAN

9/12 at Pittsburgh

9/19 GEORGIA STATE

9/26 TCU

10/3 at Houston

10/10 at Oklahoma State

10/17 BYE

10/24 BYU

10/30 BAYLOR

11/7 at Kansas

11/14 ARIZONA STATE

11/20 IOWA STATE

11/28 at Colorado

While I don’t think anybody is reasonably thinking that UCF’s going to challenge for a Big XII title this year, the schedule’s not so unreasonable that they shouldn’t be in play to go bowling for the first time in 3 years. They avoid Texas Tech, Utah and Arizona in conference, draw both of the teams ranked below them in these aggregated rankings, with Iowa State and Colorado at the end of the season when both might well be out of bowl contention. If they take care of these two and their OOC (including a game at Pitt where they are sure to be underdogs), that leaves them within shouting distance of the 6 games required. Baylor at home? At Kansas or Oklahoma State? Maybe they work their voodoo in their stupid space game? It’s all at least on the table. Here’s wishing them the worst of luck as they try to do it, and I hope my barely subtle message is enjoyed by any who pick it up!

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

Folks, it is just 9 weeks to the day from the start of the 2026 college football season! That brings us to the second team from the Big XII, Iowa State. Man, the Cyclones have been coached by some recognizable names over the years, including Pop Warner, Johnny Majors, Earle Bruce, Gene Chizik and Dan McCarney. Look, I didn’t say they were all recognizable only for good things, did I? But seriously, none of them managed to do what Matt Campbell did in his decade in Ames, which is to finish a season ranked in the top 10. In fact, nobody before had even finished in the top 15, something Campbell did twice. He also oversaw them reach the Big XII championship game twice (2020 and 2024), their only ever double digit wins season and took them to 7 bowl games, more than any other coach ever did. So him leaving after last season to become the new head coach at Penn State really marks the end of an era, and puts an even bigger damper on 2025’s relatively down 8-4 season. So much so that when he decided to move on to Happy Valley, Iowa State decided to decline what would have been the 8th bowl bid in the decade, and left the Cyclones to hire Jimmy Rogers after his single 6-6 season at Wazzu, though clearly his experience at South Dakota State, which included an FCS national championship and coach of the year award, were the drivers for that move. Since he comes in with more accolades than Campbell did (4 years at Toledo, no conference championship appearances), can he keep up and even build off of his predecessor’s success?

Roster Outlook

Campbell took 23 Iowa State transfers with him to Penn State, which isn’t even half of the 55 players Iowa State lost after the season! No wonder the Cyclones rank 102nd in FBS in returning production. In fact, I’m not going to bother going over who they lost, they lost everybody! Their projected depth chart shows 11 transfers starting on offense, and the only meaningful defenders slated to return are S Drew Surges (26 tackles, 1 INT) and LB Carson Willich (18 tackles). It appears Arkansas State transfer Jaylen Raynor will start the season at QB ahead of Oklahoma State transfer Zane Flores, while Bowling Green’s Cameron Pettaway is currently penciled in as the starting RB. Out wide, Rogers brought in Tarleton State’s Cody Jackson, Tulane’s Omari Hayes to go with Carter Pabst from Wazzu (one of 15 Cougars to come with him to Ames). In total, that gave the Cyclones the 67th best portal class in the country (the worst portal class in the Big XII) to go with the 56th best high school recruiting class (11th in the conference), so look for there to be some growing pains this fall.

Schedule and outlook

9/5 SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE

9/12 at Iowa

9/19 BOWLING GREEN

9/26 UTAH

10/3 WEST VIRGINIA

10/9 at BYU

10/17 BYE

10/24 at Arizona

10/31 OKLAHOMA STATE

11/7 at Baylor

11/14 CINCINNATI

11/20 at UCF

11/28 KANSAS STATE

Well, Cy-Hawk will be interesting. Iowa State technically has a 3 game win streak in the rivalry (Iowa was forced to vacate their 2023 win for tampering with Cade McNamara), and this year the Clones look to be double digit dogs, the first time since Campbell’s first season in charge. While Iowa State misses defending champ Texas Tech on the schedule this year, they do face the next 3 highest ranked Big XII teams (spoiler alert). Overall, though, the schedule is fairly balanced, drawing 4 teams from the bottom half of the conference in these rankings. With winnable OOC games against SEMO & Bowling Green, Farmageddon in the season finale could very well have bowl eligibility on the line.

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

With today’s team being James Madison (high = 34, low = 87), we close the book on our 3rd conference, the Sun Belt, where the projection would see the Dukes put them up against Troy in a rematch of last year’s championship game. Time to get our kicks with team 66! It would be hard to argue that JMU hasn’t had the single most successful move up from FCS, going bowling in each of the 3 years they’ve been eligible (including in 2023 when they weren’t originally eligible which kept them from playing in the conference championship game), winning the 2025 Sun Belt championship and being the first team from that conference to go to the College Football Playoff. While most of the credit for that deservedly goes to Curt Cignetti, who kind of raided the cupboard when he went to Indiana (and led to a depleted Dukes team finishing in 3rd place in the Sun Belt East in 2024), his replacement Bob Chesney quickly rebuilt and coached the team in their round 1 game in Eugene, where they scored infinitely more points on a staunch Ducks defense than a certain Big XII team. But Chesney traded in JMU’s purple for the baby blue of UCLA, and the Dukes have brought Sun Belt Billy Napier back home to where he was successful. Is there enough in Harrisonburg for him to keep them at the top?

Roster Outlook

If there is, it’s going to have to come from some new talent. JMU ranks 136th out of 138 FBS teams in returning production, in the bottom 10 on both sides of the ball. That’s because Chesney took 11 players with him to UCLA, a significant chunk of the 19 Dukes who portaled out to P4 teams. In contrast, Napier brought in only 7 P4 players, but that was still enough to be the best portal class in all of the Sun Belt, and the 2nd best overall portal class in all of the G6 behind only USF. He didn’t have many high school recruits follow him from Florida, though, ranking 6th in the conference and 85th in the country in that regard. Starting QB Alonza Barnett is off to sail the lazy river at UCF, and while his infamous backup Matthew Sluka is there to takeover (EDIT - nope, he's gone, I'm an idiot), it may be notable that he didn’t start the spring game (which, to be fair, only lasted 5 plays) in favor of JC Evans. RB Wayne Knight (hello, Newman!) will be carrying the ball in the Rose Bowl in the fall, while his backups Jordan Fuller and Jobi Malary both graduated. Not to pile on, but JMU’s top WR Landon Ellis also portaled to UCLA, while their other two top WRs graduated (Nick DeGennaro landed with the Patriots, Jaylan Sanchez is still TBD). So who exactly will be suiting up for the Dukes in the fall? Napier did bring in a couple of QBs (UCF’s Davi Belfort and Memphis’ Arrington Maiden) and a couple of notable WRs (LSU’s Kylan Billiot and VT’s Micah Matthews), and RB George Pettaway (34 carries for 195 yards) is the presumptive feature back unless Liberty’s Malachi Fannin-Render or an FCS transfer step up.

Schedule and outlook

9/5 LIBERTY

9/12 WAGNER

9/19 at San Diego State

9/26 at Old Dominion

10/3 MARSHALL

10/10 at Georgia Southern

10/17 GEORGIA STATE

10/22 at Appalachian State

10/29 TROY

11/5 at Southern Miss

11/14 at UConn

11/21 BYE

11/27 COASTAL CAROLINA

The OOC features a real chance for JMU to put a dent in two different conferences CFP hopes by hosting Liberty and then going out to San Diego State, not to mention a trip to UConn late in the season, before a bizarrely timed bye in the penultimate week of the regular season. The schedule really isn’t particularly egregious, but with so much talent lost, what appears to be a lackluster portal class where quantity is driving the numbers more than quality and the unknown of how Napier’s going to respond to his shortcomings in Gainesville, it’s hard to escape the feeling that JMU is this highly ranked more based on their recent successes and reputation than on anything able to be gleaned from a football perspective. They could easily go 12-0 or 11-1 with this schedule, but that doesn’t mean they deserve to be the 5th highest ranked G6 team like they are here.

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The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

Break out the sopapillas, Abuelita, we’ve reached New Mexico (high = 42, low = 94)! And if you don’t think Mountain West fans are going to enjoy the fact that their 2nd highest rated team comes in ahead of the new Pac-12’s second highest team (San Diego State yesterday), you might be a little high on New Mexican ayahuasca. Head coach Jason Eck has worked wonders since he came in from Idaho and built on the foundation laid by Bronco Mendenhall in his single year in Albuquerque. He led the Lobos to their first bowl appearance in a decade, their first 9 win regular season since Rocky Long’s 2007 season and their first share of a conference regular season title (not division titles) since finishing with a share of the WAC title in 1964. Frankly, they were an OT loss to Minnesota in the Rate Bowl from their first double digit win season in more than 40 years. So what does Eck do for an encore?

Roster Outlook

Eck has a lot more than just hatch chiles cooking in Albuquerque this year, as the Lobos rank 21st in total returning production, including 16th on offense and 40th on defense. That starts with QB Jack Layne, though it’s also notable that Oregon transfer Luke Moga, a former 4 star recruit, saw the writing on the wall said Raiola and portaled in here. While starting RB Damon Bankston is off to the NFL (Giants), DJ McKinney had essentially the same number of carries and more rushing TDs, and he’s back as the full time starter with Scottre Humphrey (350 yards, 5 TDs) also back. WR1 Keagan Johnson is also out of eligibility, but the second leading WR (Shawn Miller) is back along with UNLV transfer Troy Omeire. While New Mexico’s biggest P4 loss is TE Dorian Thomas to Cal, USC transfer Joey Olsen should be a viable replacement. In all, New Mexico ranked 4th in high school recruiting in the Mountain West (91st nationally) and 5th in the portal (104th in the country), but they didn’t really need to add too much.

Schedule and outlook

9/5 CENTRAL MICHIGAN

9/12 MERCYHURST

9/19 at Oklahoma

9/26 at New Mexico State

10/3 UTEP

10/10 BYE

10/17 at Hawaii

10/24 NORTH DAKOTA STATE

10/31 at San Jose State

11/6 at Nevada

11/14 UNLV

11/21 WYOMING

11/27 AIR FORCE

Remember last year when New Mexico went to Ann Arbor and perhaps caught the Wolverines looking forward to going on the road to Oklahoma, hanging within 10 points of Michigan into the 4th quarter? This season, the Lobos will travel to Norman a week after the Sooners travel to Ann Arbor and the week before they play at Georgia. Any chance they catch Oklahoma in a let-down look ahead sandwich (hat tip to The Solid Verbal)? Probably not, but that’s also probably the only game New Mexico will be an underdog in all season seeing as how UNLV and North Dakota State both play them in the Land of Enchantment. If Eck can stay focused on his current job and not on whoever will undoubtedly come calling for next season, New Mexico is a serious challenger for the G6 CFP slot.

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

Today we’re officially at the halfway point of the countdown, having previewed 69 teams (NICE) with 69 to go (VERY NICE!). That team at #69 is Michigan State (high = 55, low = 105), becoming the 3rd lowest ranked B1G team (notice we haven’t reached the lowest SEC team yet – food for thought for those tiring debates about which conference is better) and yet another day before u/ztreHdrahciR sees his beloved Northwestern listed (though they will be mentioned again here). It’s almost unfathomable that just a decade ago, the Spartans were coming off a B1G championship and a CFP appearance. Then again, so much has changed in that decade since then. Ten years ago, the Supreme Court made controversial decisions, the Affordable Care Act was under attack, Donald Trump was making provocative statements that seemed outrageous and the United States and Iran signed a deal that limited the latter’s nuclear capabilities. Times really have changed! One other thing that seemed primed for continuing for another decade was Michigan State’s place at or near the top of the B1G. Even though head coach Mark Dantonio resigned after 13 years in charge, the Spartans hired Mel Tucker from Colorado to come in, and within 2 years he had them back in the top 10 in the country at the end of 2021. But then… WHOA! THEY HAD TROUBLE WITH THE SNAP!!! Mel may or may not >!(spoiler alert, he did!)!< have sexually harassed a woman who worked in the Michigan State athletic department. Mel, who clearly is of the go big or go home school of thought, thought “how about if I harass the sexual assault prevention person!” I’m guessing Sherronne Moore looked at that as tacit permission to simply do this with a regular staffer in this age of whataboutism. Anyway, Tucker pretty well hung on for Michigan State’s ride to the bottom, going 5-7 in 2022 and 4-8 in 2023 (by which point Tucker was fired for cause) and all 9 of those wins were vacated. Sparty hired Oregon State’s Jonathan Smith, who dealt with a 2023 that also saw their wins vacated before finally getting a chance at a full reset. That 2025 resulted in a 4-8 season (including 1-8 in the B1G) was apparently not enough for new athletic director J Batt, who fired Smith after only 2 seasons (not all coaches are Cignetti, folks!) and brought in that bastion of virtue Pat Fitzgerald, who has oodles of experience in the NIL era (/s), the same day he canned Smith! Batt was so pleased with his efforts that he didn’t even stick around to oversee a single game of the Fitzgerald era, beating president Kevin Guskiewicz out the door and taking the AD job at Kentucky. I wouldn’t buy too many green bananas, Will Stein! So, what exactly is in store for Spartans fans in 2026?

Roster Outlook

What is in store is pretty much a rebuild. The Spartans rank 97th in the country in returning production, with plenty of losses on both sides of the ball. Last season’s starting QB, Aidan Chiles, portaled out to Northwestern, though to be fair, he had already been benched for backup Alessio Milivojevic by Smith in a desperate attempt to make the Spartans bowl eligible (which didn’t work). Milivojevic is back and expected to be the starter. Lead RB Makhi Frazier portaled out to Ole Miss (wonder if Golding called him while he was in class) while WR1 Nick Marsh, who had double the TD receptions of anybody on the Spartans roster, transferred to Indiana. When you factor in that WR2 Omari Kelly and starting TE Jack Velling are both off to the NFL, Fitzgerald did what he could to fill in from the portal himself. RB looks like a competition between Nebraska’s Kenneth Williams, Iowa’s Jaziun Patterson and UConn’s Cam Edwards, while the wideout spots look to be filled in with Notre Dame’s KK Smith and Michigan’s Fredrick Moore. And don’t lose sleep on the possibility that UCF’s Cam Fancher pushes Milivojevic under center. In total, Fitzgerald brought in 13 P4 guys in the portal, ranking 55th overall in the country (but 14th in the B1G) in that category. He also managed to finish 12th in the conference in high school recruiting (51st nationally), so there’s lots to work with here.

Schedule and outlook

9/4 TOLEDO

9/12 EASTERN MICHIGAN

9/19 at Notre Dame

9/26 NEBRASKA

10/3 at Wisconsin

10/10 ILLINOIS

10/17 NORTHWESTERN

10/24 at UCLA

10/31 BYE

11/7 at Michigan

11/14 WASHINGTON

11/20 OREGON

11/28 at Rutgers

That early season schedule sets up nice for Michigan State if they can escape from the haze (pun intended) of their last several years. Sure, nobody expects them to beat Notre Dame in South Bend (KK Smith revenge game, anybody?), but if Fitzgerald is able to coach them up (and, jokes aside, he did more with less at Northwestern than anybody in the B1G), they have some time to get their sea legs at home against a pair of MAC teams before facing a Nebraska team that’s underachieved with Matt Rhule, a Wisconsin team that’s underachieved with Luke Fickell, an Illinois team (at home) that’s proven they can keep any lesser team competitive and a Northwestern team that you just KNOW Fitzgerald is aching to spank. The latter half of the schedule turns harder (the battle for the Paul Bunyan trophy at the Big House, back to back games against Washington and Oregon), but it won’t be too shocking if the season finale at Rutgers has bowl eligibility on the line.

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

I might suck at r/cfb’s Tuesday Trivia, but here’s a fun nugget that I would probably have failed at if I hadn’t looked it up. Do you know there are only 7 teams that have an active bowl streak that extends beyond a decade? The list contains 6 names that wouldn’t surprise you (in order, Georgia, Oklahoma, Alabama, Clemson, Iowa and Ohio State), but it’s the 7th that would probably come as a shock, and it’s today’s team, Memphis (high = 65, low = 79). The Tigers really came into their own after 2013 in Justin Fuente’s second season, and their dozen years of excellence has led to them getting poached 3 times now – Justin Fuente to Virginia Tech, Mike Norvell to Florida State and now Ryan Silverfield to Arkansas. A cautionary tale in the grass always being greener, let’s start wishing the Razorbacks good luck on their 2032 coaching search. Silverfield was undoubtedly distracted by his own job search last season that included an audition for his new bosses by beating Arkansas in week 4 when he pissed away a legitimate chance at the Tigers being in the CFP by first losing at UAB in Alex Mortensen’s coaching debut, climbing back into the mix after Alex Golesh similarly pissed away a CFP opportunity by blowing a 14 point 4th quarter lead against the Tigers in the Liberty Bowl, then proceeded to lose out the final 3 regular season games just to seal their fate. Seriously, I hope both Silverfield and Golesh choke on those giant paychecks for fucking over entire fanbases on their way out of town. Hey, aspiring carpetbagging coaches, you can leave and not alienate the schools and fanbases on the way out. Hat tip and full respect to Jon Sumrall, Eric Morris and Bob Chesney.

Damn, this got dark. Hey, we’re 10 weeks from the start of the football season – back to the good vibes, everybody! Memphis hired Charles Huff, who will be coaching his third team in 3 seasons after leading Marshall to the Sun Belt title in 2024, reviving a moribund Southern Miss team last year and then deciding to check out Beale Street in 2026.

Roster Outlook

Not unlike when he left Marshall, Huff will have a significant amount of roster churn in year 1 in Memphis. So perhaps unsurprisingly, the Tigers rank pretty low (111th nationally) on the returning production front, with considerable losses on both sides of the ball. While senior QB Brendon Lewis was always destined to be gone after this year, Silverfield’s heir apparent, AJ Hill, the #5 QB recruit in the country when he signed with Memphis, got his start in that ill-fated Battle for the Bones game. He also went with Silverfield to Arkansas, as did leading RB Sutton Smith and #2 WR Jamari Hawkins (top WR Cortez Braham is a UDFA with the Baltimore Ravens). It’s the potential replacements that get interesting. Huff brought Denzel Gardner with him from Southern Miss (one of 17 players to go with him, 6 of whom (Chris Stokes, Tychaun Chapman, Jabari Ishmael, Ahmere Foster, Ian Foster and Anthony Richard) had come with him to Hattiesburg from Marshall), but also convinced one time Ohio State and South Carolina QB Air Noland to come to Memphis as well. But don’t be surprised if neither starts the season, as West Florida QB Marcus Stokes, who had a combined 3,650+ yards and 40 total TDs for the Division II school, also portaled in. And it’s established canon that Division II QBs who play for schools within 100 miles of the Mississippi River lead their teams to the CFP. Huff’s no fool! He brought in a Southern Miss transfer at RB, too (Jaylin Carter), but look for Colorado’s Dallan Hayden or Cincinnati’s Manny Covey to compete for carries. Out wide, Huff brought in a couple of Southern Miss guys, but figure Michigan State’s Alante Brown, Colorado’s Terrell Timmons or Kansas State’s Jemyri Davis to be the featured receivers. In total, Huff brought in 19 P4 transfers as part of his 53 man portal class, which ranked 2nd in the conference and 65th in the country. He also did a decent job on the recruiting trail, ranking 3rd in the American and 77th nationally, resulting in the 2nd best overall incoming class.

Schedule and outlook

8/29 at UNLV

9/5 ARKANSAS STATE

9/12 at Boise State

9/19 UT MARTIN

9/26 BYE

10/3 at Charlotte

10/10 UAB

10/16 at Tulane

10/22 EAST CAROLINA

10/31 ARMY

11/7 BYE

11/12 at South Florida

11/21 at Navy

11/28 TEMPLE

Memphis has a chance to put the American firmly in control of the CFP in their OOC this year, with road games at two of the biggest contenders for the G6 bid (at UNLV in week 0 and then 2 weeks later at Boise State). If the Tigers come out of the bye with wins in one or both of those games, they’ll certainly head into conference play as a legitimate contender to be the 12th seed (apologies for looking past the Paint Bucket Bowl, but I expect Memphis to be a prohibitive favorite in the finally renovated Liberty Bowl – and I just learned today about both of these Memphis rivalry games!). After what should be anticipated wins at Charlotte and over UAB, the rest of the conference schedule actually gets much trickier – at Tulane on short rest, hosting East Carolina 6 days later, followed by Army and (with a bye to recover from the cut blocking) travel to USF and Navy. In short, they don’t draw 4 of the bottom 6 projected teams in the American, which could make for a tough inaugural season for Huff and the Tigers, and probably why they’re only ranked as the 4th highest team in the American this year.