u/walberque_

On the Mandalorian and Grogu Domestic Box Office, you can see from the first chart that it continues to chart below Solo. I've focused in so you can see the recent deviations more clearly. It beat Solo's daily take only twice out of 40 days so far: - once on the 1st Saturday (May 26 v May 23) and the 5th Sunday (June 24 v June 21).

I have included a comparison just to Solo and Rogue One, as well as comparisons to the Sequel trilogy.

M&G is now in 1,250 and should drop several hundred theaters tomorrow, Friday July 3. It increasingly appears it will end just below $180m Domestic Box Office cumulative.

I'm plotting the numbers for Supergirl against the past four recent comic book films and, of course, it's not looking good at all. You all know the deal with the opening (below Joker 2 and Morbius, ahead of Kraven, Madame Web and Blue Beetle), and we'll see the 2nd weekend hold soon.

Well, back to the domestic box office charts for the Mandalorian and Grogu...and, in a word, they're good. In two words, they're not good. In three words, it's a disaster.

You can stop here, but more words follow....

Fourteen days into the run of the Mandalorian and Grogue, I think we have enough data to sharpen our estimates of how the domestic box office will play out. I think (I'm pretty sure?) we can assess that M&G will be the lowest-performing Star Wars film, aside from the Clone Wars (2008) and I don't even know if the Ewok movies were shown in theaters, but let's leave all that aside.

• Chart one demonstrates that M&G's domestic daily box office is tracking perfectly with Solo (actual), but far worse in terms of domestic box office adjusted for inflation.
• Chart two shows you the cumulative domestic box office (actual and adjusted) against Solo (and Rogue One) to give you an idea of where this will land.
• Chart three and four then compare it to the wider Star Wars cinematic experience from the Prequels until today.

If trends continue, M&G - just on domestic box office terms - is a catastrophic failure. I know THR tried to spin this - first that it was going to open a new cinematic universe, then that it was going to at least break even, and now that it doesn't matter because of other revenue streams (the last of which is not wrong) - but this result is bad.

I think the initial hope within Lucasfilm was that the shiny Boba Fett and Baby Yoda would have a four-quadrant appeal that could break through to a global audience. I remember the articles about how the future of the Mandosphere was reliant on the box office of this film around a year ago, but that kind of language was quickly and quietly shelved when the early numbers started rolling in.

The reputational damage is real: Disney demanded a huge share of premium screens, showings, and revenue for M&G's domestic box office receipts for the first two weeks - and if you own a premium chain or screen, how likely are you to listen to someone who, in the final analysis, brought in such paltry rewards?

In the meantime, the buzzy word-of-mouth success of Obsession and Backrooms has turned many heads back in old Hollywood in terms of how to make a massive profit from a non-IP property. It is such an interesting moment, particularly with the next big Marvels event incoming.

Personally, I hope that Star Wars: Starfighter does amazing numbers (and is, you know, actually a good film? Please?), but to those who have the memory of a goldfish: Ryan Gosling's track record at the box office is not unblemished. PHM was an amazing, legged-out masterclass, but he has bombed far too many times for SW:S to be a slam dunk.

Also, to those who will question why I'm writing this post today, know that I am a big fan of this franchise. I think it has been mismanaged and the dialogue around it has fallen into grifters on the right and shills on the left. I just want good content. Skeleton Crew was fun. Andor was astonishing. Obi-Wan was a mess. The BBF was poodoo, and Acolyte will eventually be remembered as the franchise's Zardoz. I hope for better days. So don't @ me bro.

Tuesday official domestic box office numbers look bad for Disney's release strategy by making Mando and Grogu as a theatrical release. If the numbers don't pick up, it is on trend to finish below Solo's actuals, never mind the numbers adjusted for inflation. No update on international numbers. Still $63m.

While I get that Disney+, merchandising and theme parks will mitigate any losses by M&G, a catastrophic box office haul may damage Disney's ability to negotiate favorable terms for Starfighter's release (opening box office share) and access to premium tickets (e.g., IMAX screens).

Maybe it will all turn around and the film will leg out to Project Hail Mary-type numbers, but if not, then this release strategy will be seen in retrospect as a big mistake.

Next update will be after next weekend's numbers are verified.

So, the official numbers for the Mandalorian and Groglette domestic box office performance are in, and they are the lowest of the Disney era to date.

• M&G 3-Day: $81,670,433
• M&G 4-Day: $98,091.641

Comaprison with Solo: A Star Wars Story:

• Solo 3-Day: $84,420,489 (unadjusted), $108,345,256 (adjusted)
• Solo 4-Day: $103,016,812 (unadjusted), $130,461,863 (adjusted)

It is possible that this will leg out like PHM or Episode VII, but if it drops like the other Disney-era Star Wars, then $400m may be a bridge too far.

I'll be curious to see the Tuesday take: the Solo number-to-beat is $7,295,767 ($9,363,387 adjusted). Then we'll see about the second weekend drop.

For comparison, Solo had a second weekend dropoff of 65.18% and PHM had a 32.85% drop.

International, it took an estimated $63 million.

It will be interested to see the final numbers (the M&G numbers are the estimates as of Monday morning), but even if they're revised upwards a bit, the film's still going to require quite the legs to reach the breakeven of ~$600m.

While Disney insiders were saying that Mando's future depended on the film's recepetion a few months ago, I suspect that sentiment was over-interpreted by outsiders. While a Madame Web-level tanking might have fatally damaged the Mando brand, something more than that will ensure Mando's contuation, as all costs are more than covered by merch, theme park, and streaming revenues that will continue ad infitum.

Still, there is some reputational risk of releasing a film that makes less than Solo in both actual and adjusted numbers. If the per-screen returns drop precipitously in the second week, theater operators will be far less likely to give the next film as much access.

I'll be interested to watch this story develop...