I cannot recommend the new book, The Art of Andor, highly enough.
So much insight into early and evolving concepts from the book and even some very droll humor (e.g., illustration, top center, page 192). 280 pages, around 1,000 separate images, worth every penny.
The Mandalorian and Grogu left theaters on Thursday 6 August 2026 after 77 days of domestic theatrical release. The next shortest release calendar for a Disney Star Wars property was Solo, with 119 days in theaters (after that comes the Clone Wars 2008 "three episodes in a trenchcoat" movie, which lasted 91 days in theaters and made a nifty profit on its tiny budget - $68.5 million worldwide box office on an $8.5 million budget).
The final numbers for M&G:
M&G's budget was reported, after tax rebates, at around $165 million plus another $120-150 million in marketing, with disputes over these numbers meaning the estimated breakeven point is between $440 million (the lowest credible number that I've seen) to $630 million. Wherever you come down in that range, this film lost a tremendous amount of money -- recall that the studio gets roughly half the box office over the full box office run, with a higher percentage for domestic and premium screens, a lower percentage for the international take, especially China.
While Disney's spin that income from streaming, merchandise, games, and theme parks will mitigate box office losses, the failure of the movie to reach general and worldwide audiences may have already changed the future of the franchise. It is rumored that the Dave Filoni-helmed Heir to the Empire movie has been downgraded to a miniseries for Disney+, and it is highly likely that M&G's underperformance will reduce Disney's leverage in access to premium screens for Starfighter.
Regardless, recall that before the film came out, Disney was pushing tremendous optimism in the trades, with claims that M&G would perform very well with general audiences ($700 million+) due to the overwhelming popularity of Grogu. While Grogu's increased public profile via the ad campaign may have boosted merchandise sales, it did not attract general audiences to theaters.
I hope Lucasfilm reflects on the lessons provided by not only by the Disney Star Wars films, but the successes (Spiderman BND), mixed results (Superman) and failures (Supergirl, Fantastic Four, Thunderbolts, Captain America BNW) of recent big franchise movies.
What is that lesson? there are many - time off from the franchise may be helpful in rebuilding interest, or minor characters almost always perform more poorly than the franchise headliners, or Lucasfilm has failed spectacularly in both marketing and expectations (and fan) management throughout the Disney era.
But that's for their executives to decide, not me.
This is me, age 6, with my Mego Star Trek phaser, on one of my happiest Xmas days.
Yes, I am older than Mike. Believe it.
We just got the final numbers for Supergirl's weekend 3. They are slightly higher than the estimated total, but only slightly:
The more remarkable story is the catastrophic second and third weekend fall offs. It's worse than The Flash and Snow White, and closer in totals and pattern to 28 Years Later and Ballerina. Here is this comparison in domestic cumulative (unadjusted):
And in daily domestic gross (again, unadjusted for inflation):
And here's the cumulative chart in comparison with other recent superhero films, for perspective:
Supergirl's second weekend numbers are dire. By comparison, here are drops from 18 other big franchise movies from 2023-2026 in order of the size of the drop:
Looks bad, and getting worse. Supergirl likely to shed theaters rapidly over the next few weeks and coupld disappear short of $80M domestic.
On the Mandalorian and Grogu Domestic Box Office, you can see from the first chart that it continues to chart below Solo. I've focused in so you can see the recent deviations more clearly. It beat Solo's daily take only twice out of 40 days so far: - once on the 1st Saturday (May 26 v May 23) and the 5th Sunday (June 24 v June 21).
I have included a comparison just to Solo and Rogue One, as well as comparisons to the Sequel trilogy.
M&G is now in 1,250 and should drop several hundred theaters tomorrow, Friday July 3. It increasingly appears it will end just below $180m Domestic Box Office cumulative.
I'm plotting the numbers for Supergirl against the past four recent comic book films and, of course, it's not looking good at all. You all know the deal with the opening (below Joker 2 and Morbius, ahead of Kraven, Madame Web and Blue Beetle), and we'll see the 2nd weekend hold soon.
I would include the Killers Shadowplay, but it's objectively bad. And anyone who tries to say "Nouvelle Vague" will find me in a balaclava crawling into your room at night to destroy your record collection.
We can cross into New Order/Joy Division territory with Ceremony covers:
And Bush's cover of In a Lonely Place
And, of course, Let's Dance to Joy Division by the Wombats
Well, back to the domestic box office charts for the Mandalorian and Grogu...and, in a word, they're good. In two words, they're not good. In three words, it's a disaster.
You can stop here, but more words follow....
Fourteen days into the run of the Mandalorian and Grogue, I think we have enough data to sharpen our estimates of how the domestic box office will play out. I think (I'm pretty sure?) we can assess that M&G will be the lowest-performing Star Wars film, aside from the Clone Wars (2008) and I don't even know if the Ewok movies were shown in theaters, but let's leave all that aside.
If trends continue, M&G - just on domestic box office terms - is a catastrophic failure. I know THR tried to spin this - first that it was going to open a new cinematic universe, then that it was going to at least break even, and now that it doesn't matter because of other revenue streams (the last of which is not wrong) - but this result is bad.
I think the initial hope within Lucasfilm was that the shiny Boba Fett and Baby Yoda would have a four-quadrant appeal that could break through to a global audience. I remember the articles about how the future of the Mandosphere was reliant on the box office of this film around a year ago, but that kind of language was quickly and quietly shelved when the early numbers started rolling in.
The reputational damage is real: Disney demanded a huge share of premium screens, showings, and revenue for M&G's domestic box office receipts for the first two weeks - and if you own a premium chain or screen, how likely are you to listen to someone who, in the final analysis, brought in such paltry rewards?
In the meantime, the buzzy word-of-mouth success of Obsession and Backrooms has turned many heads back in old Hollywood in terms of how to make a massive profit from a non-IP property. It is such an interesting moment, particularly with the next big Marvels event incoming.
Personally, I hope that Star Wars: Starfighter does amazing numbers (and is, you know, actually a good film? Please?), but to those who have the memory of a goldfish: Ryan Gosling's track record at the box office is not unblemished. PHM was an amazing, legged-out masterclass, but he has bombed far too many times for SW:S to be a slam dunk.
Also, to those who will question why I'm writing this post today, know that I am a big fan of this franchise. I think it has been mismanaged and the dialogue around it has fallen into grifters on the right and shills on the left. I just want good content. Skeleton Crew was fun. Andor was astonishing. Obi-Wan was a mess. The BBF was poodoo, and Acolyte will eventually be remembered as the franchise's Zardoz. I hope for better days. So don't @ me bro.
The news gets worse for Disney Star Wars (but fantastic for Obsession and Backrooms, woof) regarding the Mandalorian and Grogu film:
The Mandalorian and Grogu topped the Domestic Box Office for the fewest number of consecutive days in Disney Star Wars history with 5 days at #1. The earliest analagous performance dates back to the Prequel Trilogy, where EP III held the #1 spot for only 9 consecutive days and 14 total days on top.
It is possible that M&G could rally, but we have 15 days of daily Domestic Box Office at this point, and each day has been below the adjusted and unadjusted numbers for Solo. At this point, I can say with a high degree of certainty that the Mandalorian and Grogu will underperform compared to Solo's unadjusted domestic and international numbers, making it the worst-performing Star Wars cinematic release in history (aside from the Clone Wars 2008, which is fair).
M&G is on course for a total domestic box office of between $185 and $200 million dollars. Even if the International Box Office overperforms expectations (say, $175m at the high end) for a best-case total cinematic take of $375m versus a budget of $375m ($144m after tax below-the-line California-only costs, throw another $31m in above the line and non-Cali costs, another $100m for marketing), we can conclude that it is highly unlikely that it will make anywhere near its box office.
As many others in this reddit have said, the box office for this movie matters less than the four other major benefits: 1) restoring the chatter about cinema-Star Wars in general and the Mandalorian in particular within the wider fandom, the merch sales, the theme park revenues, and the undenialble streaming dollars for the first three seasons of the Mandalorian show and eventual subscriptions, retention, and streaming numbers of the movie in a few weeks when it drops out of cinemas.
Anyway, back to the top ten discussion, to understand the depth of lack of interest by the general public in this film, let's take a look at the performance of previous Disney (Sequel and stand-alone) and Prequel Trilogy Star Wars films in their early days:
And the Prequel Trilogy:
And, of course, the caveats - I suppose there is an vanishingly small chance that M&G could still leg it out (Arrested Development voice-over: it did not leg it out).
Next, we will look at the charts...
Tuesday official domestic box office numbers look bad for Disney's release strategy by making Mando and Grogu as a theatrical release. If the numbers don't pick up, it is on trend to finish below Solo's actuals, never mind the numbers adjusted for inflation. No update on international numbers. Still $63m.
While I get that Disney+, merchandising and theme parks will mitigate any losses by M&G, a catastrophic box office haul may damage Disney's ability to negotiate favorable terms for Starfighter's release (opening box office share) and access to premium tickets (e.g., IMAX screens).
Maybe it will all turn around and the film will leg out to Project Hail Mary-type numbers, but if not, then this release strategy will be seen in retrospect as a big mistake.
Next update will be after next weekend's numbers are verified.
So, the official numbers for the Mandalorian and Groglette domestic box office performance are in, and they are the lowest of the Disney era to date.
Comaprison with Solo: A Star Wars Story:
It is possible that this will leg out like PHM or Episode VII, but if it drops like the other Disney-era Star Wars, then $400m may be a bridge too far.
I'll be curious to see the Tuesday take: the Solo number-to-beat is $7,295,767 ($9,363,387 adjusted). Then we'll see about the second weekend drop.
For comparison, Solo had a second weekend dropoff of 65.18% and PHM had a 32.85% drop.
International, it took an estimated $63 million.
Hey! I need some help from the Mandalorian experts here. I saw M&G in the theaters (twice), and was confused about the relationship between Din and Zeb. Are they friends? Prior to this movie, do they have a relationship? Have they worked together before?
>!It appears that at the very least, Zeb is unfamiliar with Grogu (e.g., he says, "I like this kid" or something like that, implying that he is unfamiliar with Grogu's skills). !<But is he tight with Mando?
I recall that Zeb has appeared in live action a couple of times - I want to say in Ashoka S01? - but I simply cannot remember whether he shows up in Mando Season 3, and more specifically, whether or not he and Din had a personal relationship on screen (or, at least, heavily implied).
Anyone recall offhand? Thanks in advance.
It will be interested to see the final numbers (the M&G numbers are the estimates as of Monday morning), but even if they're revised upwards a bit, the film's still going to require quite the legs to reach the breakeven of ~$600m.
While Disney insiders were saying that Mando's future depended on the film's recepetion a few months ago, I suspect that sentiment was over-interpreted by outsiders. While a Madame Web-level tanking might have fatally damaged the Mando brand, something more than that will ensure Mando's contuation, as all costs are more than covered by merch, theme park, and streaming revenues that will continue ad infitum.
Still, there is some reputational risk of releasing a film that makes less than Solo in both actual and adjusted numbers. If the per-screen returns drop precipitously in the second week, theater operators will be far less likely to give the next film as much access.
I'll be interested to watch this story develop...
