u/xjawndotcom

I modeled how individual players influence whether a shot is blocked. By combining this skill estimate with their defensive shot exposure, I created an estimate of value (in terms of goals added relative to league average defenseman) of a player's shot blocking. Here is a ranking of that blocking valuation.

This work is obviously part of a broader issue of long-standing across hockey circles: is blocking a viable defensive skill, or is merely a symptom of bad defenders hemmed into their own zone.

I'm a Flyers fan, and the community generally really likes Nick Seeler, the other elite blocker on this list. Yes he blocks a lot of shots (and is good at blocking them), but the analytics show he is also good at driving play the other way to minimize shots against.

In posting on broader hockey subreddits, I have gathered that the reception for Cole is ... not as high. What do you all think?

For full season review and player evaluation: https://xjawn.com/players/8474013

For more technical description of how this blocked shot valuation was quantified:

https://xjawn.com/blog/blocked-shots

https://xjawn.com/blog/blocked-shots-2

https://xjawn.com/blog/blocked-shots-3

Are shot-blocking defensemen truly good at "generating defense"?

I made an expected goals model that predicts both 1) how likely a given shot is to be blocked and 2) how that probability changes depending on which players are on the ice. This list ranks players by the number of goals their individual blocking has prevented relative to the average player for the 2025-2026 season.

https://xjawn.com/blog/blocked-shots-3

TL;DR: Shot blocking is a real skill (looking at you Nick Seeler)! But its impacts are modest at best.

Are shot-blocking defensemen truly good at "generating defense"?

I made an expected goals model that predicts both 1) how likely a given shot is to be blocked and 2) how that probability changes depending on which players are on the ice. This list ranks players by the number of goals their individual blocking has prevented for the 2025-2026 season.

https://xjawn.com/blog/blocked-shots-3

TL;DR: Shot blocking is a real skill (looking at you Nick Seeler)! But its impacts are modest at best.

Following up from my previous post trying to motivate interest in blocked shots (https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsanalytics/comments/1vave9j/the\_value\_of\_blocked\_shots\_in\_hockey/), now for the payoff.

https://xjawn.com/blog/blocked-shots-3

TL;DR: For a given shot, I can model 1) how likely that shot is to be blocked and 2) how that probability changes depending on which defenders are on the ice. Blocking shots is a real skill (looking at you, Nick Seeler), but its quantifiable impact is small.

I have long believed that blocked shots are offer offensive value in a way currently undervalued by the analytics community. I now have the data to begin to back up some of these claims!

Part of the challenge has been technical: the NHL does not release the location from which a blocked shot originated, only where it was blocked. I think I found a novel way around this limitation.

This work remains ongoing, but I'd love some feedback to help drive the project.

See the work here:

https://xjawn.com/blog/blocked-shots

https://xjawn.com/blog/blocked-shots-2