
ThreeD Capital (CSE: IDK / OTCQX: IDKFF) - Up 100% YTD, First Time Above the 200MA in Years, and the Last Time This Happened It Ran 300%
Forget the past price - look at the present setup. Technical breakout + deep value + dense 2026 catalyst stack. Use a stop loss below recent lows.
THE TECHNICAL SETUP
IDK is up approximately 100% year-to-date.
More importantly: this is the first time in years that IDK has crossed and held above its 200-day moving average.
The last time this exact technical structure set up - stock crossing and holding the 200MA - it ran approximately 300% before pulling back.
Why does this matter?
In micro-cap and thinly traded stocks, the 200-day MA cross is the signal that forces algorithmic screeners, technical traders and momentum funds to look at a name for the first time. The fundamentals already existed. The technical breakout is what brings new eyeballs to a tight float. When that happens, price response is disproportionate.
Trade management: Use a stop loss below recent lows. Let the setup play out or cut it cleanly.
Right now you have four things converging simultaneously - which in micro-cap land is rare:
✅ Deep discount to NAV (~67–70%) - the value floor
✅ Dense 2026 catalyst stack - the fundamental trigger
✅ First 200-day MA crossover in years - the technical ignition
✅ Tight float - the amplifier
WHAT IS THREED CAPITAL?
ThreeD Capital Inc. (CSE: IDK, OTCQX: IDKFF) is a publicly listed Canadian permanent capital vehicle - think of it as an actively managed VC "ETF" you can buy in any brokerage account.
Instead of LPs, lockups and 2/20 fees, it's a single ticker giving you exposure to a 51-company portfolio:
- 37 disruptive technology holdings (AI infrastructure, quantum computing, brain-computer interfaces, blockchain payments, smart-city software)
- 14 junior resource holdings (primarily gold exploration and development)
Currently priced as if the underlying portfolio is worth almost nothing.
THE CORE ANOMALY: BUYING $0.27 OF ASSETS FOR ~$0.08
- Reported NAV: $0.27 per share (as of December 31, 2025)
- Current market price: approximately $0.08–$0.115 CAD
- That is a 67–70% discount to NAV — you get close to 3× NAV coverage on every share you buy
The balance sheet backing this is auditable: total assets of ~$25.9M CAD consisting of cash, investments and digital assets.
And NAV is arguably conservative:
- Many private holdings are carried at cost or last financing round - not at any optimistic forward multiple
- The large TDN royalty position (279,413,283 TDN royalties, each fixed at $1 USD by TODAQ Holdings) is not included in reported NAV at all
WHO IS RUNNING THIS
The founder, Chairman and CEO is Sheldon Inwentash - CPA, honorary Doctor of Laws from the University of Toronto.
Track record:
- Built Pinetree Capital from $0.10 to $26.00 per share - a 26,000% return at peak — managing a 393-company portfolio with aggregate market cap exceeding $1 billion
- Three exits above $550M each: Queenston Mining (~$550M), Aurelian Resources (~$1.2B to Kinross Gold), Gold Eagle Mines (~$1.5B to Goldcorp)
- Co-founded NexGen Energy (now multi-billion dollar uranium company)
- Co-founded New Found Gold - one of Canada's most significant gold discoveries of the last decade
He is not a passive allocator. He takes active board-level roles, helps recruit management, introduces strategic partners and leads follow-on rounds.
ThreeD Capital is the distilled version of a playbook that has already generated multiple billion-dollar outcomes.
THE PORTFOLIO: WHAT YOU ACTUALLY OWN
Tech Holdings (the six at inflection points):
🧠 AIML Innovations (CSE: AIML) - AI-powered ECG platform targeting 300M ECGs/year globally. SickKids pilot running, AWS proof-of-concept complete, US sales launch initiated February 2026. Upcoming: Health Canada + FDA clearance enabling paid roll-outs across hospitals and OEMs. This platform is trained to predict cardiac events before they happen.
💸 TODAQ / TAPP (private) - Internet-native payment rails for AI agents and digital content. ~90% cheaper than credit card networks. Oracle Cloud rollout of 10,000 video titles on TAPP rails scheduled Q2 2026. The 279M TDN royalty position at $1 USD each sits entirely outside reported NAV.
🤖 HyperCycle (private) - AI infrastructure with a $1.1B Seoul AI Hub JV anchoring its ecosystem. MOSAIC local AI OS launching — marketed as a system that builds a "synthetic brain" from a user's own data. ThreeD is a founding investor.
⚛️ Dynex (private) - Room-temperature quantum computing. Apollo chip reportedly outperforms D-Wave at ~100× speed with ~90% cost reduction. QaaS (Quantum-as-a-Service) model for recurring revenue. Apollo-10000 moving from reference chip to commercial production in 2026. D-Wave has had a multi-billion dollar market cap — Dynex is accessible only through IDK, inside a sub-$10M CAP vehicle.
🎧 Neurable (private) - Brain-computer interface OS. Validated by US Air Force, US Army and Mayo Clinic. ~$150K MRR, $15M DoD pipeline. Commercial partnerships: HP HyperX, Master & Dynamic, Renpho and Audeze. Revenue trajectory: ~$2M (2024) → $132M (2027E) if deals close.
🏙️ InfinitiiAI (CSE: IAI) - Smart-city / water-infrastructure SaaS. $2.69M CAD revenue FY2025, 96% renewal rate, ten consecutive quarters of growth, 80+ clients including Los Angeles, Toronto and Seattle.
Resource Holdings:
⛏️ Forte Minerals (CSE: CUAU) - 16.31× value creation since 2022 IPO. 19,000 hectares across five properties in Peru. Flagship Alto Ruri: historical 131m @ 2.55 g/t Au, ~15km from Barrick's Pierina Mine. Active drill program underway.
🥇 Sun Valley Minerals (private) - Gold-silver in Uruguay. Initial trenching: 49.4m @ 2.05 g/t Au. 5,000m drill program in progress.
2026: DENSE CATALYST YEAR
Multiple portfolio companies hitting concrete milestones in the same calendar year:
- TODAQ: Oracle Cloud rollout of 10,000 live video titles on TAPP rails - Q2 2026
- Dynex: Apollo-10000 commercial production
- Neurable: 3+ commercialisation deals expected to close, supporting the $2M → $132M revenue ramp
- AIML: Health Canada + FDA clearance progression and US sales network build-out
- HyperCycle: MOSAIC local AI OS launch
- Forte Minerals: Alto Ruri drill results
Any single one of these events could lift NAV. When NAV growth combines with discount compression - those two forces are multiplicative on equity returns.
INSIDER BEHAVIOUR + TIGHT FLOAT
- Management has been buying shares in the open market at the same ~$0.08 price available to retail. Insiders have full knowledge of the pipeline, board discussions, and near-term catalysts - and they are choosing to increase exposure at these levels.
- Tight float: A material portion of shares is held by insiders and long-term holders. When new buying pressure arrives, there are fewer "escape valves." Micro-cap history shows this leads to outsized price moves.
- Transparency initiative: ThreeD launched a YouTube channel in early 2026 with direct CEO interviews for AIML, Neurable, HyperCycle, TODAQ and others - directly attacking the "black box discount" that keeps most closed-end funds permanently cheap.
WHY DOES THE DISCOUNT EXIST?
- Sub-$10M CAD market cap - screens out most institutions
- 51-company portfolio with several private, technical names - complexity = neglect
- CSE + OTCQX listing = outside mainstream US/TSX radar
- Closed-end fund stigma - generic skepticism that may be over-applied here
None of these are fundamental problems. They are structural inefficiencies that patient investors can exploit before catalysts close the gap.
RISKS - BE HONEST
- Illiquid stock - slippage can be high in both directions
- Private valuation risk - a portion of NAV is in illiquid private co's
- 2026 catalyst execution risk - delays in regulatory approvals, technical milestones or drill results would hurt sentiment
- Manager concentration - this is a "back the jockey" bet
- Macro / sector cycles - quantum, AI and junior mining are all sentiment-driven
Size accordingly. Use a stop loss below recent lows. This is speculative micro-cap territory.
TLDR
ThreeD Capital (IDK / IDKFF): up ~100% YTD, just crossed its 200-day MA for the first time in years (last time this happened: +300%), trading at ~0.3× its own NAV — run by the manager who built a 26,000% return at Pinetree - with a portfolio that includes an AI platform that predicts heart attacks, potentially the fastest quantum computer in the world, military-validated brain-computer interfaces, and AI payment rails 90% cheaper than VISA - all hitting commercial milestones simultaneously in 2026.
Stop loss below recent lows. Micro-cap, illiquid, speculative. The asymmetry is real. DYOR.
Compiled from ThreeD Capital's March 2026 research materials, public filings & YouTube channel. Not financial advice.