USPS is about to price like FedEx. Your dim weights just started mattering.

On July 12, USPS rolls out a batch of pricing changes that finally make it behave like a real parcel carrier, and if you ship anything bulky and light, they're going to sting. This is the USPS story that actually touches your rate sheet, so it's worth two minutes even if you usually skim the postal stuff.

The big one is dimensional weight. For packages over a cubic foot, USPS bills on size, not just weight, using a formula that divides the box's dimensions by a number called the divisor. They're lowering that divisor from 166 to 139, which is exactly what FedEx and UPS already use, and on top of that, they're rounding every measurement up to the next full inch. Translation: bigger billed weights.

The shippers who get hit hardest are the ones sending lightweight stuff in oversized boxes, because that empty space is now expensive. The fix is obvious: shrink your packaging. If your boxes are full of air, these changes will hurt more than they need to.

There's also a paperwork trap. USPS is expanding its dimension-reporting requirement to all Ground Advantage and Priority Mail shipments, and getting your measurements wrong carries a $3 noncompliance fee. Three bucks sounds like nothing until you're a high-volume shipper and it's on thousands of parcels. We saw exactly this when UPS started rounding up last year, and sloppy dimensional data left some shippers paying correction fees up to three times the normal amount. The fee on the newly covered shipments doesn't kick in until early next year, so you've got runway. But the move is to clean up your measurements in your warehouse and shipping systems now, before they become line items.

One more for the small guys: USPS is killing ounce-based pricing on sub-pound Ground Advantage Commercial shipments, with some prices jumping as much as $2.04. That lands hardest on smaller shippers who don't push enough volume to have a negotiated contract.

And yes, on top of all this, USPS also filed to bump the First-Class stamp from 78 cents to 82 cents. But the stamp is the sideshow. The parcel changes are the story.

Zoom out, and it's the same USPS we've been tracking since Edition 44: a financially cornered agency pulling every revenue lever it owns. Deliberately pricing like FedEx and UPS is just the latest move, and it comes with a real risk for them: squeezed customers go shopping for another carrier.

What this means for you: This is a rare USPS story with a clear to-do list. First, audit your packaging for empty space, because dim-weight billing now punishes air. Second, make sure your dimension data is accurate in your WMS and shipping software before the $3 fee starts next year, since inaccurate measurements are about to get expensive. Third, if you've got small clients leaning on USPS for cheap sub-pound shipping, warn them that their rates are about to change and run the numbers to see whether an alternative carrier pencils out. One more lever, and it's the rare one that adds money instead of cost. Every dim-weight bump and $3 fee is USPS clawing margin off your operation. The offsetting move is to actually collect the money the carriers already owe you — the loss-and-damage claims most 3PLs leave on the table. Industry-wide, only 20–30% of owed parcel claims ever get filed; the rest quietly evaporates.

ShipScience runs those claims end-to-end for the brands you fulfill — detect, document, file, reconcile — and you add a success fee to the invoice you're already sending. Pure contingency, so you only pay on what you recover. Their book runs 86% first-attempt approval on UPS claims, with first payments often inside a week, across FedEx, USPS, Amazon, DHL eCommerce, and OnTrac.

There's a packaging law with $25K-a-day fines. Your clients have probably never heard of it.

Here's a story that's flying almost completely under the radar, which is exactly why it's worth your three minutes. A wave of state packaging laws is going live this summer, the deadlines are days away, and the penalties for ignoring them include outright bans on selling into the state.

The shorthand is EPR, Extended Producer Responsibility. The idea: if your company puts single-use packaging into a state, you're now on the hook for the cost of recycling it. Seven states have passed these laws so far, including California, Oregon, Washington, Maryland, Colorado, Minnesota, and Maine. The way you comply is by registering with a state-approved nonprofit that manages the recycling, reporting how much packaging you put into the market, and paying fees based on that volume.

The reason this is suddenly urgent: Washington's registration deadline is July 1, which is basically now. Maryland just passed on May 31. And Oregon, which has been enforcing since last year, isn't messing around. It published a public list of about 300 companies that failed to comply, and fines for not registering can reach $25,000 per day. Several states go further than fines and flat-out prohibit non-compliant companies from selling products into the state at all.

Now here's why this lands on you and not just on big brands. Figuring out who counts as the "producer" on the hook is genuinely murky, and in e-commerce, it can be the platform, the manufacturer, or the distributor, depending on the details. The factors that decide it include whether the packaging carries any branding, who owns the trademark, and who the importer of record is. If you private-label, if you're the importer of record for a client, or if your packaging carries your mark, you or your clients could be the covered producer without anyone having flagged it.

One honest caveat, because the picture isn't fully settled. A group of wholesaler-distributors sued Oregon, arguing the law unfairly burdens out-of-state companies, and a court temporarily blocked Oregon from enforcing the law against that group's members. A trial starts July 13. So the law is real, and the deadlines are live, but how far it reaches is still getting fought out in court. That's a reason to pay attention, not a reason to assume it'll get tossed.

What this means for you: Two moves. First, figure out whether you or any of your clients are a covered producer in these seven states. The fastest way to tell is whether your packaging carries your branding or you're the importer of record. Second, if the answer is yes, the registration deadlines aren't theoretical; Washington's is July 1, so flag it to clients now rather than after they land on a public non-compliance list. This is also a relationship opportunity. Most of your clients have no idea this exists, and being the partner who warned them before the $25,000-a-day clock started is worth a lot more than a rate quote.

Your clients' tariff refunds are stuck with FedEx. Here's the catch.

Quick recap for anyone just tuning in: the government collected over $160 billion in IEEPA tariffs before the Supreme Court killed them in February. We've tracked the refunds since the portal opened in Edition 42. The money is real, and it's flowing. This week we learned how slowly, and who's holding it.

Here's the thing most people miss. Many small shippers never paid the government directly. Their carrier did. FedEx, UPS, and DHL were the importers of record on millions of these shipments, so the refund goes to the carrier first, and the carrier decides when your client sees it.

FedEx is sitting on about $800 million owed back to customers and won't start paying out until around August 10. It's launching a portal by July 10 where shippers can check what they're owed. But read the fine print: FedEx is paying customers faster who agree to share their shipping data with its "trusted vendor partners." Say no, and you still get paid, just slower. UPS and DHL are doing the same dance on their own clocks, somewhere in the 60- to 90-day range after they get the money.

One more reality check. Even when the refund lands, it's smaller than people hope. Bernstein figures it's worth less than 1% of sales for most retailers, and a chunk gets shared back with suppliers anyway. Walmart and Costco will likely use theirs to cut prices and grab market share, dragging everyone else into the same fight.

What this means for you: If a client's duties were collected by FedEx, UPS, or DHL, the refund isn't something they file for; it's something they wait on, so tell them to check the carrier portal instead of assuming the money's gone. Flag the FedEx data-sharing prompt specifically: faster cash in exchange for giving a carrier more visibility into your shipping is a real trade-off worth a second thought. And if a client imported directly and still hasn't filed, the Edition 42 advice stands. Get them moving, keep the paperwork clean, and reply if you want an intro to someone who can file it and front cash. Just don't let anyone budget the refund as a windfall. It's a one-time check, it's months out, and it's smaller than they think.

QUICK HITS

FTAI Infrastructure closed its acquisition of Tidewater Logistics, a barge and rail transloading operator running in Ohio, West Virginia, and Texas, for about $45 million. The fit is clean: Tidewater's transloading capacity bolts directly onto FTAI's Wheeling & Lake Erie Railway, serving shale and energy customers across the Appalachian Basin and Gulf Coast. FTAI expects roughly $9 million in EBITDA from it over the next year. Not a headline-grabber, but a tidy example of an infrastructure owner buying a complementary asset to deepen an existing network rather than chasing scale for its own sake.

Amazon is putting another $13 billion into India, on top of the $35 billion it announced last year, bringing its total commitment there to $48 billion through 2030. Most of the new money expands AWS data centers in Mumbai and Hyderabad, but the logistics piece is notable: more than 20 new fulfillment centers and over 100 new delivery stations are going live this year alone, with a push into tier-3 and tier-4 cities. Same pattern we flagged with the $17 billion France commitment in Edition 49. Amazon's domestic infrastructure war gets the headlines, but the international buildout is running just as hard, and it's where a lot of the next decade's parcel volume gets locked in.

CSX cut the ribbon on its $495 million Howard Street Tunnel project in Baltimore, finally clearing the 131-year-old tunnel for double-stack rail. The fix raised clearance by 18 inches and improved 21 other spots across Maryland, Delaware, and Pennsylvania, allowing the Port of Baltimore to move stacked containers inland to the Midwest and up the East Coast instead of trucking them down a congested I-95. The port pegged the capacity gain at around 160,000 containers a year. Worth noting the long road here: CSX walked away from this project back in 2017 before returning two years later, and the tunnel itself reopened in September 2025, so this is the finish line on a buildout that's been years coming. If you move East Coast freight, Baltimore just became more useful as an inland rail gateway.

Side note: If anyone knows of a good co-packer in PA, please let me know.

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