Note: I have written the following detailed guide to help students understand exactly how grade boundaries work as every year I get asked the same sort of questions from students!

TL;DR:

Grade boundaries are not predetermined before the exam and are not set according to pre-defined quotas. They are agreed after marking, based on actual student performance, examiner judgement, previous standards, paper difficulty and statistical evidence about the cohort as a whole. Your individual GCSEs or predicted grades do not determine your A-Level result. However, prior attainment at a cohort level allows exam boards to determine whether or not outcomes are broadly in line with previous years. To put it simply: your grade is determined by your marks alone, but the boundary those marks are judged against is determined by using a mix of data and judgement.

Every year around exam season, people start saying things like:

• “Grade boundaries are decided before the exam.”
• “They only let a fixed percentage get A*s.”
• “If everyone does badly, everyone gets high/low grades.”
• “The exam board will lower boundaries because the paper was horrible.”

Most of that is incorrect. Some of it is half correct. The real process is far more mundane, far more statistical, and quite honestly far more brutal. This post covers mainstream regulated GCSE, AS and A-Level awarding in England and Wales. That covers the general process used by awarding boards such as AQA, OCR, Pearson Edexcel, WJEC and Eduqas. There are differences between each qualification system. England is regulated by Ofqual. Wales is regulated by Qualifications Wales.

Not all WJEC qualifications in Wales follow the exact same format as English A-Levels. A-Levels in Wales continue to be assessed using AS and A2 units, with AS also counting towards the overall A-Level. English A-Levels are linear qualifications. This means that your A-Level grade at the end of the qualification is based on exams based on the entire qualification.

Before anything else: what “comparable outcomes” means

To talk about grade boundaries, we first need to talk about comparable outcomes.

Comparable outcomes is the idea that if the group of students sitting a qualification across the country this year are of broadly the same ability as those who took it in previous years, then the national results should also be roughly equivalent. Not the same. Not set quotas. Not “only X% of students can achieve an A* grade.” But similar overall. This is so grades don’t suddenly rise or plummet across the board just because one year's exam was easier/harder/weirder/ different in style.

Exam boards are essentially asking this question: "Where should the grade boundary sit so that the standard of work needed for this grade is comparable with previous years?"

That is where prior attainment comes into play.

Exam boards use statistical evidence about a cohort for A-Level awarding. In England, GCSE performance is the biggest prior-attainment indicator which predicts how strong this year’s A-Level cohort will be against previous years. For WJEC/Wales, the official statement is more broad: statistics can be influenced by factors such as age, gender, school type and students’ performance in previous exams according to WJEC.

It doesn’t mean your individual GCSEs determine your A-Level result. It doesn’t mean your GCSES “cap” you. And it doesn’t mean that an algorithm automatically assigns you a grade based on which GCSEs you got.

It means that previous exam performance is used, at national cohort level, to help exam boards judge whether this year’s crop of candidates are stronger or weaker, or about the same as previous years.

Example:

If all of this year's A-Level Chemistry students had marginally better prior exam profiles than last year's A-Level Chemistry students, then the system "expects" that year's cohort to achieve slightly higher results overall. If their prior exam profiles were worse, then the expectations would be lower.

But that isn't the entire process. Senior examiners will still assess the scripts, marks, difficulty of paper, previous years standards, and quality of work around the proposed grade boundaries. Your own GCSEs do not directly decide your A-Level grade, but the prior attainment profile of the national cohort helps shape the statistical expectations used when boundaries are set.

So grade boundaries are not derived from “how hard the paper felt”.

They are derived from…

• the actual marks students got
• the quality of actual scripts
• the difficulty of the paper
• standards in previous years
• examiner judgement
• statistical evidence about the cohort
• students prior attainment / previous exam performance

This is also why “comparable outcomes” doesn’t mean there’s some quota. There is no law that says “only X% of students can get an A*.” But there is also no magical world where the exam board ignores all this national data and just decides on a whim what they feel the boundaries should be.

The simple truth is: Your individual grade is awarded purely based on your marks. However the boundaries those marks are judged against are set using statistical evidence about the whole cohort and examiner judgement.

Grade boundaries are NOT set before the exam

The exam board does not gather round in February and say "An A* will be 215/300 this year for [subject]"

They won't know that until after students take the paper because they can't predict how hard it will be for the actual students sitting it. A paper may seem fair when it is written, quality assured, checked and signed off but the reality is often different when students sit it and it may end up being harder or easier than the examiners first thought.

That is why grade boundaries are set AFTER students have sat the exams

Grade boundaries are set after marking, not immediately after the exam

The process is approximately:

1. Candidates take the exam.
2. Examiners mark papers using the mark scheme.
3. Marks are checked, moderated and monitored.
4. Exam board collects mark data.
5. Senior examiners and assessment experts review evidence.
6. Comparisons are made with this year’s work to last year’s and statistical evidence of the cohort.
7. Final exam grades boundaries are agreed.
8. Boundaries are published on results day.

So, when people leave Paper 2 announcing “the A* boundary will DEFINITELY be X%”, they are guessing. They could be correct through luck, but they do not know. Teachers won’t know. Social Media won't know. Your friend who “heard from an examiner” will almost certainly not know either. : )

The key principle is not “same marks every year” - it is “same standard every year”

You need to understand this above all else.

The exam board isn’t trying to ensure 80% gets you an A every year (hence grade boundaries changing year on year). They are trying to ensure that the standard of work you need to achieve an A is consistent year-on-year. If this year’s paper happens to be easier than last year’s, then the boundary will usually go up. If this year’s paper happens to be more difficult than last year’s then the boundary will usually go down.

That is how you end up with one year where 65% gets you an A, and another year where 75% gets you an A. It doesn’t necessarily mean the exam board are being evil. More likely it means that the paper was easier/harder, the overall cohort did better/worse, the distribution of marks was different, or a mix of those things.

Your raw mark is meaningless on its own. All that matters is how your raw mark compares to the expected standard for that grade in that particular exam series.

It is not a simple “curve”

Lots of people insist that A-Levels are “curved”. They’re not really. There’s no rule saying that only the top 10% can get A* grades or only the top 25% can get As. No quota. No cap.

If everyone turns in work that deserves an A*, everyone will get an A*. Sure, everyone with an A* won’t get the exact same mark, but there is nothing stopping every candidate getting an A*. Doesn’t mean it’ll happen, of course - that would require an almost universal rise in standards overnight. But it could happen.

BUT

Exam boards still care about statistics.

They look at things like the predicted abilities of the cohort (prior attainment), how they performed last year, how this years’ students performed in previous years etc. They also collect mark distribution data and analyse it. So they don’t strictly curve. But they also don’t just decide “this mark feels like an A”. They use a combination of cold hard stats and examiner discretion.

You’re not battling your neighbour for the one ‘slotted’ A*. However your cohort’s national performance and prior-attainment levels matter when it comes to setting boundaries.

Senior examiners look at actual scripts near the boundary

Senior examiners look at actual student scripts that fall near potential grade boundaries.

Take an example A boundary at about 180 marks. Examiners look at scripts around 180 and ask themselves:

• Does this look like A-grade work?
• Would this match A-grade work from last year?
• Is this work too poor for an A?
• Is this work stronger than we expected?
• Does this support our statistical evidence for this boundary?

Comparisons will be made with work in previous years. That is how they try to ensure they use the same standard each year. Boundaries are therefore not set arbitrarily. But nor are they conjured from thin air. Judgement, data & regulation are all involved.

“Everyone found it hard” does not automatically mean low boundaries

This is where students get caught out.

After an exam there will inevitably be posts on social media where people are complaining about the exam. Except social media doesn't represent your entire cohort. Typically the people making the loudest posts on the internet are the most stressed out about the exam, the angriest at the exam board, or are most invested in the outcome. That paper may have felt awful to everyone in your class but performed just fine amongst the national cohort.

It's also possible that a paper feels really weird or gross to you, but high-scoring students are still able to score high. In that case, the high boundaries might not drop as much as people think. "Everyone found it hard" is meaningless if the national mark data and script evidence doesn't support lower performance by students.

“The paper was easy” can be bad news

If a paper is genuinely easier then more people will get high marks.

This means the boundary usually goes up. It’s why some students leave an exam happy, feeling pleased with themselves, only to be taken down a peg come results day. An ‘easy’ paper doesn’t guarantee an easy A*. It can mean the exact opposite. You have to make fewer mistakes etc. because more people will also have found it easy .

This is particularly true for subjects like Maths, Further Maths, Biology, Chemistry, Psychology and Economics. One ‘nice’ paper can inflate boundaries significantly if a lot of students do well.

Easy paper = usually more marks needed for the same grade.

Special consideration is separate from grade boundaries

Special consideration is intended for situations where a fully prepared candidate has suffered from extenuating circumstances at or near the time of assessment. Examples include illness, injury, bereavement or serious disruption.

Even in these circumstances it is only a minor mark increase to the affected component, not some miracle inflation. Normally, special consideration can add at most 5% to the raw mark you would otherwise receive for the component affected. And that 5% is for extreme circumstances. 1-4% is reserved for more 'minor' cases.

So special consideration can help a bit at the margins, but cannot make up for weeks/months of poor teaching or turn a poor paper into a top grade.

Your predicted grade does not decide your result

Your UCAS predicted grade does not determine your final A-Level grade. If your teacher says “you’re an A student” it doesn’t mean that the exam board have to award you an A. Your actual grade will be determined by your marks and the grade boundaries. Awarding bodies can use statistical evidence, and some awarding processes may use broad prediction data/prior-attainment data at cohort level. That isn't the same thing as your predicted grade determining your result. Your personal predicted grade is not a guarantee, and it is not proof that the grade boundary is incorrect. Your predicted grade is just that, a prediction. Your result is determined by the marks you receive.

Past paper boundaries are useful, but they can mislead you

Past paper boundaries can vary quite significantly year on year. It is useful when revising to look at historical grade boundaries but always take them with a pinch of salt and always allow yourself a buffer. Don't just think "last year you needed 68% for an A" so all I'll need is 68% this year to be safe - always aim higher. If you are only scraping previous grade boundaries, you are not necessarily safe.

Why do some subjects have much higher boundaries compared to others?

Typically this is because high grades are easier to achieve for that subject / paper.

For instance in some Maths papers, if everyone finds the paper straightforward and a lot of strong candidates achieve high marks then the A* threshold will be much higher.

In more essay based subjects the thresholds may look lower because it is typically harder to get full marks. Scoring 80% in an essay based subject could be considered very good. Scoring 80% in some STEM based papers could be quite regular for top candidates.

Don’t panic if you see raw percentages and they look low in one subject and high in another, do not assume they are equivalent. 75% in one subject may be exceptional. 75% in another subject may fall below the threshold for the top grades.

Can grade boundaries be wrong?

It’s important to note that there are steps taken to ensure this doesn’t happen wherever possible.

Data, senior examiner judgement, comparisons to previous years, script reviews and regulator oversight are just some of the things exam boards take into account. Of course, it’s an imperfect process. Students will always end up on near a boundary feeling like they’re the unlucky ones.

If you’ve just missed an A by one mark, that boundary is going to feel pretty unfair. But the line has to be drawn somewhere so this is unavoidable.

This is one of the ugliest truths about grading. Two students can be neck and neck in terms of performance, but one student walks away with the better grade and the other doesn’t because they’re one mark off.

Do not compare everything to COVID years

The COVID years were abnormal. 2020 and 2021 did not feature normal exam grading. 2022 was a transition year. 2023 shifted back towards usual standards before the pandemic, with some protections. Therefore, if you're looking at grade boundaries or grade distributions, please use caution with 2020, 2021, and 2022. The scores from those years are not cleanly comparable to other years. Normal exam-boundary expectations should really only use pre-pandemic years and years after 2023.

What actually decides your grade?

Your grades are totalled up per your qualification’s guidelines. With English linear A-Levels, that will typically mean you will have an overall qualification mark. With Welsh/WJEC unitised A-Levels, how your units and UMS are structured will matter. You are then placed against the relevant grade boundary/ UMS grade requirement.

EXAMPLE:

A* = 220

A = 190

B = 160

C = 130

Get 189. You get a B.

Get 190. You get an A.

That's how harsh it is. There is no sneaking over the line. It doesn’t matter if your teacher predicted you an A. It doesn’t matter if Paper 1 was particularly unfair. It doesn’t matter if you need a certain grade for university. The line is the line.

What you can actually control!

The grading system is pretty brutal, but that doesn’t make you powerless. You can’t control grade boundaries, how strong the national cohort is, whether your paper is easier or harder than you were expecting - but you can control how well you prepare, how many marks you fight for, how familiar you are with the mark scheme, how quickly you improve on weak topics, and how you react when a paper seems nasty. That goes a lot further than most people think. Who can stay calm under pressure, pick up method marks, write something coherent, and keep answering when everyone else is panicking. A-Level marking can be cruel, but it isn’t random. Marks are still marks. Every mark you gain puts more distance between you and slip ups or bad luck on the day. So take grade boundaries as information, rather than fretting over them. Target above them, build a buffer, practise effectively and learn from your mistakes. And remember: you don’t need to guess what the boundary will be. You need to be in a situation where the boundary matters as little as possible.

Most importantly - when you finish your exams, switch off and enjoy your summer! Stressing will not change the outcome.

Good luck! : )

i was checking my work and I realized like seconds before time ran out

Haven't been eating as much and as well as I usually do since maybe 2nd week of may, anyone else relate? or just me 😞

All my colleges said my attendance was bad and so I didn’t have a spot and no other colleges that ik off are taking spots so what do I do lol

title x

I know that the purpose of study leave is to revise, but I am losing my mind. And when I am free, everyone is coming back from school, tired and has to start their own work.

i need all the help i can get gang

I need an A* in maths or further maths. Basically core pure 1 went fine, got around 65-68 marks. But core pure 2 fucked me so hard. I’ve counted my marks and got around 35. I’ve been getting A* in all my mocks, but I got thrown off so hard and now my confidence is knocked. I’m more than capable of getting an A* but I’m so stressed out it’s insane. For further maths it’s like okay I just need a B, but when they are questions I know how to do and I just panicked it makes me really anxious. And with the A* in maths there is like no room for error.

I'm a future PPE applicant hoping to go to Durham/Warwick/Edinburgh for uni.

I just did my mocks and achieved AAA (maths, philosophy, english literature), whilst under extenuating circumstances. My school absolutely refuses to predict me above A*AA, and I'm really really worried that this massively decreases my chances of an offer. I know that I technically meet the minimum grade requirements, but from the FOI's I've looked at I know my chances of getting an offer are severely decreased. I'm spiralling quite a lot, I've put so much effort in and feel crushed they won't predict me higher. Does anyone have any success stories with lower predicted grades than expected?

How are we feeling?

Ive been pretty consistent with work, and finsihed the content for all three subjects in Jan. I started properly prepping for alevels about a months ago, and at first It was rough, but i got the the point where i would consistently get high grades. But over the past week, i feel like my performance has dropped and im doing less work. I wake up, do my anki reviews (100 cards), do 1-2hrs of maths questions, then 1 or 2 past papers from either of my 3 subjects. I feel like i prepared too early, and now ive only got 2 years worth of past papers left for all my subjects, ive been getting lower scores than i was getting recently. I feel like im not working as hard as anyone else, cus i barley do any work. But i feel like ive got everything covered, and idk why my scores have been so low, like im just stressed.

Is this happening with anyone else?

Sorry abt the rant, but i just want some advice.

My exams begin in june and i cant help that im procrastinating so much, i should be doin 3-4 papers a day and im only getting 1-2 done and i spend more time watching yt then actually studying. I have to review like 2000 anki cards and finish the 4 years of papers remaining and i see people on here laser focused for 8-10 hours a day whereas im doing the bare minimum, anyone got advice ?

I got every Edexcel A Level Maths past paper, separated into individual questions, and made them searchable as a free revision tool. No accounts or subscriptions.

https://similarquestion.com/

I'm about to finish all of the Edexcel past papers for maths and need more practice, which exam board has a similar level of difficulty if not a harder level?

WE ARE FREE

js finished mocks and i dont even know what to do 💔 i have a week holiday and i probably should revise but idk for what

is anyone else also feeling like this? what did those who got A*s do at this akward time??

I’m so sad I know i underperformed :( maths is my favourite subject but ik I did badly in unit 1 too :( did anyone else struggle?
I’m doing all of as and a2 in one go so I couldn’t manage my time well :(

who’s excited to be nineteen in sixth form?