r/ClimatePosting

In 2035–2036, three climate factors could coincide and produce record-high global temperatures: a powerful El Niño, the maximum of the Sun’s 11-year activity cycle, and continuously increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

If current trends continue, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations could reach approximately 450–455 ppm, compared with 280 ppm before industrialization. Meanwhile, methane (CH₄) concentrations could increase from around 1,936 to 2,000–2,050 ppb, while nitrous oxide (N₂O) could rise from approximately 339 to 350–352 ppb. These are estimates based on historical trends, not definitive forecasts.

Underlying human-induced global warming could reach approximately 1.7°C above preindustrial levels by that time.

Two natural climate phenomena could temporarily amplify this warming:

* El Niño: A strong El Niño can temporarily increase global average temperatures by approximately 0.1–0.2°C, with the greatest effect typically occurring several months after the event develops.

* Solar maximum: The Sun’s energy output increases by approximately 0.1% between solar minimum and solar maximum. This can contribute approximately 0.05°C of additional global warming, with some estimates suggesting effects approaching 0.1°C.

If both phenomena occur simultaneously, they could potentially contribute a combined 0.15–0.3°C of additional warming compared with conditions without these temporary influences. However, their effects cannot necessarily be added directly, and the actual temperature response depends on several factors.

Consequently, global average temperatures in individual years around 2035–2036 could potentially reach 1.9–2.0°C above preindustrial levels, or possibly even higher.

It is currently impossible to predict whether a strong El Niño will coincide with the anticipated solar maximum around 2035–2036. Nevertheless, such a coincidence is entirely plausible.

This combination could produce new global temperature records, more extreme heat, severe droughts, increased wildfire risks, and greater risks of intense storms, hurricanes, typhones, rainfall and flooding.

Greenhouse gases would remain the dominant driver of warming, while El Niño and solar maximum could produce temporary temperature peaks, making individual years considerably warmer than the underlying long-term climate trend.

Sources: World Meteorological Organization (WMO), NOAA Climate.gov, and Indicators of Global Climate Change (2026).

* WMO – El Niño and Global Temperature

* NOAA – Solar Cycles and Global Temperature

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