
Statistically, Following Momentum Beats Betting on a Turnaround - How NAV Delta Helps Me Filter Income Funds
One thing I’ve been trying to build into my income strategy is the idea that it’s usually better to follow strength than to keep betting that a weak fund is suddenly going to reverse.
Of course, the biggest money can sometimes be made if you catch a turnaround early. If a fund has been beaten down and then its NAV trend suddenly improves, that can be very profitable. But statistically, that’s harder to do consistently and a lot of research on momentum and trend-following shows that assets with strong recent performance often have better odds of continuing to perform well in the near term than weak assets suddenly becoming winners.
That’s basically why I use my NAV Delta approach
For income funds, I don’t only look at yield. A 15%, 20%, or 30% yearly distribution rate can look amazing but if the NAV keeps bleeding, then part of that income may just be capital erosion in disguise. I track whether the fund’s NAV is holding up over different windows:
- Trailing 12-month (TTM) NAV Delta = longer-term structure
- 3-month NAV Delta (3M) NAV Delta = recent momentum
- Since Inception (SI) NAV Delta = since-inception picture, especially for newer funds
- 70/30 score = 70% TTM + 30% 3M, or 70% SI + 30% 3M for newer funds without TTM.
The idea is not that this predicts the future perfectly, it does not!
Momentum can reverse and strong funds can break down. That is why diversification is essential to my strategy because without it, NAV Delta analysis can turn into just another concentrated bet.
I prefer income funds built on broad baskets of holdings instead of single-stock ETFs because one company-specific shock can break the whole thesis even if the yield looks great. Single-stock income ETFs can still have a place but for me they’re more tactical, I use them when they are the only practical way to get exposure to a specific sector or theme I want. Otherwise, I push to get the income from a diversified fund where the NAV trend is supported by many holdings, not one stock having to behave well.
My basic rule
I would rather add to funds where the NAV Delta trend is already stable or improving, showing positive momentum, instead of trying to guess the exact bottom in a fund with a deteriorating NAV.
That does not mean I never buy turnarounds, it just means I treat them as lower-odds/tactical bets, not the core of my portfolios. For more detail on my NAV Delta framework, how I use it for entries/exits, and my overall portfolio strategy management, here’s the original post I wrote when I started this subreddit:
Academic research behind the general idea
- Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993 — momentum in stock returns
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04702.x
- Moskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen, 2012 — time-series momentum across asset classes
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.11.003
- Asness, Moskowitz & Pedersen, 2013 — value and momentum across markets
https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12021
- Hurst, Ooi & Pedersen, 2017 — century-long trend-following evidence
https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2017.44.1.015
- Daniel & Moskowitz, 2016 — warning that momentum can crash
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2015.12.002
So for me, NAV Delta is not about chasing past performance blindly, it’s more about asking: is this income fund actually preserving its base while paying me, or am I just being paid with my own capital while hoping for a turnaround?