r/NancyGuthrieCase

Last night on The Lab, Josh had the TIR guys on. They all agreed that they think the FBI/LE knows who wrote the first two 'ransom' letters and might even know who the porch guy is, but that they were building a case.

The TIR guys actually said that because the FBI is involved, the case needs to be even stronger/airtight for a court hearing. Basically, they think they know exactly who did this, but they can't quite prove it.

What do you all think? What do you think the FBI/LE likely knows by now? And what do you think they are still trying to get ready to prove in court?

There is a theory from some ex FBI profilers that this is not a real kidnapping.

The ransom notes are fake and the person is a stalker fixated on Savannah Guthrie.

Here is a detailed look at stalker crime patterns from behavioral analysis studies.

Modern stalking research shows:

- 80-85% male.

- Peak age in 30s.

- 70-75% have some prior connection to the target.

- Behavior includes long-term surveillance, escalation, use of media or proxies, history of grievances.

In proxy attacks the stalker usually has a strong fixation on the primary person.

Savannah is the most public family member. However, the complete lack of any prior harassment or contact with Savannah is unusual.

Stalkers almost always have a history of communication before escalating.

The complete lack of any mention of Savannah in the notes and no further contact after the crime also does not fit typical stalker behavior.

The theory has problems.

Random stranger stalkers targeting a celebrity’s family without any previous contact are statistically rare.

Blaming the crime on Savannah being public is not fair.

Being in the public eye does not cause crime.

Well known publicity related stalking cases show this pattern:

• Robert John Bardo stalked actress Rebecca Schaeffer after sending letters and using a private detective.

• Margaret Mary Ray broke into David Letterman’s home multiple times and sent letters claiming they were married.

• Dante Soiu sent hundreds of letters and packages to Gwyneth Paltrow and showed up at her home.

• Thomas Ryan Giacopelli sent threatening messages to Selena Gomez and tried to meet her.

Long-term stalker behavior includes surveillance phase for months or years, escalation from indirect actions to real-world intrusions, and persistence even after intervention.

They often adapt methods when blocked.

The notes going to media and the tone shifts are consistent with attention-seeking behavior, but the specific crime scene details make a pure hoax less likely.

If it is a stalker the notes are a way to stay in the spotlight and affect Savannah indirectly.

The lack of any prior public harassment is the biggest hole in the theory.

What do you think about the stalker angle?

Does the note behavior match other stalking cases?

Any other details that could support or rule out this theory?

Walter Ivan Goncalves Jr is the Assistant Federal Public Defender at the Federal Courthouse in Tucson. He is the Porch Guy at Nancy Guthrie House on 2-1-26

He is also Tommaso Cioni band mate in Early Black

All the evidence that I sent to the FBI and Tucson PD shows that I've matched his eyes. the scar or mark on this lower lip. Plus, the way he stands on the grass with the photos. He is the Number 1 Suspect... This information was given to both agency some time ago, and I don't what they are waiting for? The stance match! The mark on the upper lip match, and the eyes match! I only posted the one eye, More info on the Porch Guy's Right Eye! Left to Right when looking at it. 1. a C, 2. A woman that looks like Jessica Hahn. 3. The little dip in the eye on the bottom. 4. the square end on the eye. 5. A white woman with Blonde Hair. Please Arrest Walter Ivan Goncalves NOW!...

Put a fork in him! He's done!... Thank you!

https://preview.redd.it/y34noum6n4bh1.jpg?width=180&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1c8816d8914338f04926c91d983b48ba3e713a2f

https://preview.redd.it/cw1armh9n4bh1.jpg?width=351&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=16debf222ea60210093653487736c7881380be19

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https://preview.redd.it/rf71yzden4bh1.jpg?width=246&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0a2a40ff34136eeba72c988a3c4a5daf5edd158a

https://preview.redd.it/ziontdphn4bh1.png?width=485&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d732e741a5593811d196864baae82141a172b53

https://preview.redd.it/e6s1h36kn4bh1.png?width=364&format=png&auto=webp&s=c8777eba832d8c4ac51e4f7dc67de4c8cd9368b3

I’m fairly new to the true crime community., so please forgive me if this is a basic question.
The Nancy Guthrie case is what got me interested. One thing that has really surprised me is how little information has been released publicly. It seems investigators have shared very few details about the evidence, witness statements, timelines, or why they’ve reached some of their conclusions.
Is this level a secrecy fairly normal, or does this case seem unusually tight lipped compared to others?

This is pure garbage by Nanos, again!

The first ransom note said the Apple Watch (white band) was on the floor in the bedroom.

That detail wasnt public at the time, so whoever wrote it had to have real access to the scene right after she was taken.

This was confirmed by multiple outlets that were briefed on the note (KOLD, People, TMZ, CNN).

The house was described as almost untouched inside with no blood reported anywhere indoors.

Yet there were blood drips on the front porch.

That doesnt add up easily.

If she just opened the door for a normal visitor, why would the watch end up on the bedroom floor?

It feels like something sudden happened in or near the bedroom.

The FBI loves playing games with information in cases like this.

In the Lindbergh kidnapping they publicly treated some ransom notes as real while privately investigating others as hoaxes.

They used newspaper ads for negotiation and leaked information strategically to keep the real sender communicating.

With Zodiac, police and media sometimes publicly questioned the authenticity of letters or said they were not credible to provoke the killer into sending more.

Zodiac would respond with angry letters when he felt ignored.

In the Guthrie case the FBI first said through sources that the notes were likely not legitimate.

Then a day or two later they stated some might still be legitimate and are still being investigated.

The back and forth could be the same kind of tactic.

The watch placement is one of the strongest things that makes the first note feel connected to what actually happened.

Its hard to fake that kind of specific detail without being there.

The clean house + porch blood + bedroom watch just doesnt line up with a simple "she answered the door" story.

What do you guys make of the watch on the floor and the blood only outside?

Does it point to a quick grab on the porch or something more complicated inside?

Any theories on why the inside was left so spotless if there was any kind of struggle?

Details of the Criminal Complaint against Derrick Callella may be the key:

"On or about February 4th, 2026, shortly after the video was published, A.C. and T.C., the daughter and son-in-law of N.G. both separately received a text message from the following phone number..."

Actual text message directly from Complaint, "Did you get the Bitcoin were [sic] waiting on our end for the transaction."

That text message is a demand for ransom? It doesn't even mention Nancy Guthrie? To me, this text is more to confirm if A & T were able to secure the Bitcoin to proceed with the "transaction". No introduction. No demand. No information. No mention of Nancy.

The complaint goes on to state, "Callella stated he pulled family information from a cyber website and he has been following along and watching TV...approximately 3 minutes after the text messages Callella called a family member of the [sic] N.G. which lasted 9 seconds."

Note how the complaint says, "family member", without a name, indicating neither A nor T, otherwise, it would have stated that. Well only 2 family members are left, Savannah or Camron.

Key timeline events to keep in mind:

February 2nd - KOLD receives 1st ransom note demanding $4million in Bitcoin with February 5th deadline (February 3rd - TMZ receives same ransom note)

February 3rd - 1st time public is introduced to Tommaso Cioni as son-in-law

February 3rd - Ashleigh Banfield cites LE source that Tommaso Cioni "..maybe prime suspect"*

February 3rd - Annie & Tommaso captured inside their car trying to evade the cameras

February 4th - Callella sends texts at 6:02pm

February 4th - Guthrie children post 1st Instagram video at ~9:23pm

February 5th - Criminal Complaint issued

Riddle me this:

Why would Callella text someone for ransom who was announced to be a "PRIME SUSPECT" the day before?

Callella sent those texts 3 hours BEFORE the 1st Instagram video from Savannah & siblings, so those texts are not the result of seeing them on Instagram.

Seems like these texts were a follow-up to a plan hatched to get money.

"The FBI and its task force partners have received several ransom notes over the course of this investigation," an FBI official said Wednesday in a statement to CBS News. "Some have been deemed to be extortion attempts without legitimacy. Other ransom demands may potentially be legitimate and are still being investigated as such."

why all the back and forth?

I like true crime (probably like most people on this sub) and enjoy hearing analysis from actual experts vs random YouTubers when it comes to cases like this. I went back and forth about whether the first two letters are real and I now believe none of these are from the actual killers. I say killers because I have never believed this was a kidnapping for ransom or robbery gone wrong. I believe she was targeted by someone very close to her and dead before it even broke the news. I think some of her loved ones will be extremely shocked and hurt once everything comes to light. Just a gut feeling.

Few reasons why I believe the letters are from opportunists:

Why wouldn’t you leave a note in the house? If the intention is ransom, she is precious cargo (ie cash) to you and you keep her alive, get your money and get her out of your hands very quickly. You don’t wait days to send a letter to a police station

If you are to believe the first letter, the second letter (the poetic one that sounds remorseful) was sent by the same person due to the bit coin account matching. Why in the world would this person risk everything by saying this? If it’s real, the other perpetrators will know.

This is all sooo bizarre and I truly hope this is the calm before the storm. If anyone else enjoys listening to professionals analyze this case, I recommend searching Dr. Gary Brucato on YouTube. He’s a forensic psychologist and is often on the interview room and the lab but his porch guy analysis with Brian Entin a few weeks ago is brilliant. He believes there is a chef behind the scenes and porch guy is the cook. He thinks he’s watching someone with a psychopathic structure on that video as he is very cool and calm right before he’s about to absolutely terrify an elderly lady and take her from her bed. Most people, even criminals, would appear at least a little worried or nervous.

Would love to hear what others think…do most people think the letters are legit?

One thing worth remembering is that investigators usually start by looking closely at the victim’s inner circle. That’s not because they’re assuming guilt, it’s because statistics show that most female homicide victims are killed by someone they knew. National data indicates that about 50-60% are killed by an intimate partner or family member, and roughly 75-80% are killed by someone they knew. Of course, statistics don’t solve any individual case, and they don’t really identify a suspect. But I think it’s worth noting that these statistics could apply to the Nancy Guthrie case as well. What do you think?

The first ransom note demanded millions in Bitcoin with deadlines of Thursday evening and the following Monday.

It included non-public details on the Apple Watch location and a damaged floodlight.

The second note claimed unintentional death and burial with nature.

Later notes to TMZ demanded Bitcoin for video and information using the phrase delivering them on a silver platter.

The sender switched Bitcoin address in the newest note while maintaining the same alias and patterns.

Bitcoin transfers of millions require time for conversion from traditional assets.

Short deadlines make genuine collection unrealistic without triggering banking alerts.

The phone with video claim in the latest note is traceable via IMEI and tower pings while the sender has avoided tracing on previous messages.

The low Bitcoin amount in later notes contrasts with the initial millions demand. The repeated media focus and tone shifts suggest the goal may have been publicity or confusion rather than payment.

The video claim would require direct connection if real, yet the sender continues public contact instead of private negotiation.

These elements match documented hoax patterns more closely than successful ransom cases.

The case remains unsolved with no body recovered.

Search efforts have covered brush and roads near the home but have not expanded to systematic grid searches of larger areas in the Catalina Foothills or Sonora Mexico regions mentioned in later notes.

Cadaver dogs and ground-penetrating radar have not been reported in expanded zones.

The burial with nature claim makes targeted searches in desert or natural areas realistic even months later due to slow decomposition in arid conditions.

The pacemaker data stopped early but no cell tower or financial tracking has been publicly detailed beyond initial reports.

Practical next steps include expanded cadaver dog deployments in areas within 50 miles of the home, review of all Bitcoin wallet activity linked to the addresses, and full linguistic comparison of all notes for writer consistency.

The short deadlines and traceable phone offer reduce the likelihood of a professional ransom operation.

The persistent media contact fits patterns of distraction or opportunism.

Public data on the notes remains limited to summaries.

The FBI has not released full transcripts.

What specific detail in the ransom notes or search efforts is most likely to break the case if pursued?

So, I got to thinking if the ransom notes were actually sent from the abductor it would make more sense to send to NBC, no? Why send to TMZ, why allow Harvey Levin to read the ransom emails in entirety, then announce the ransom notes are all fake, according to Reuters?

TMZ are gossip hoowuhs. They cannot help themselves. Harvey Levin has diarrhea of the mouth, so who better to receive information that needs to be spread like wild fire?

Maybe the FBI initiated the ransom emails to TMZ to trick the abductors into thinking someone in their group is turning on them?

Think about it:

All of a sudden we are all privé to the entire contents of the ransom email, which Harvey read verbatim?

Harvey announced how he had to ask the FBI permission to send his own money as Bitcoin?

Harvey makes sure we know he was "ghosted" by the FBI for ~1 month?

Reuters announced the ransom notes are fake?!

It looks as though the FBI wants the abductors to think someone in their group is providing information in hopes one of them with turn.

As a forensic psychologist, I have discussed this case with several colleagues, and many of us believe there are indicators that warrant considering the possibility of involvement by someone close to the victim rather than an unknown offender. One potential motive that has been raised is financial gain, such as life insurance or inheritance, although that remains speculative without conclusive evidence.

One aspect that stands out is the reported “letter” referencing her death. If accurately described, its wording appears to establish her death as a fact, which could have legal significance, rather than serving the purpose typically associated with a ransom demand.

Modern kidnappings for ransom are relatively uncommon, and successful ransom cases generally involve clear proof that the victim is alive to encourage payment. In this case, there has reportedly been no such evidence. Instead, various narratives involving cartels or other outside actors have circulated, which raises the question of whether those claims could be diverting attention from alternative possibilities.

Rather than focusing on sensational explanations, I think the more appropriate investigative question is: Who, if anyone, stood to benefit from the disappearance of an ill 84-year-old woman? That, in my opinion, is a more productive line of inquiry than assuming the primary motive was ransom.

If they're true, I think the phone video he is talking about is probably from a surveillance camera. Maybe he rented out his house/warehouse/space through Airbnb, so he has the recording and knows the kidnappers' details. That makes it worth demanding at least 1 bitcoin (not a $1 million reward). What do you think, those who believe the letters are real?