r/Optionmillionaires

NKE at $44 is easy money. ~1.3x sales. Nobody's talking about it which is exactly when i want in.

down ~75% from the $170 highs, sitting near lows last seen in 2017. still a $65B household name, new CEO (Elliott Hill, who came out of retirement to fix it), and analyst PT consensus is $68 with 38 Buys vs 5 Sells. the 5Y chart looks like hell but shows the $42-48 zone has held as base support before.

looking at the $45C 7/17, currently ~$3.00. ATM, earnings ~5 weeks out on june 25 which gives the IV ramp leading in, plus 3 weeks of post-earnings runway to exit.

main risk is macro — iran, china, vietnam tariffs, hoka eating share are all known and priced in.

(yes it popped 4% today, i was watching this before — thesis hasn't changed)

thoughts?

Edit: for people who keep DMing me the screenshots are from Thesis . Not affiliated.

200 days since my last trade on this account; Dhan showed me that notification today like it was proud of itself.

This is one of my newest portfolios. ₹1.35 lakh deployed, basically a small test book I built some signal-driven entries on through a system called AION, then walked away from.

Here's where it sits right now:

Investment: ₹1,35,377

Current Value: ₹1,73,841

P&L: +₹38,464 (+28.41%)

I'm booking everything this week, I'd rather be wrong and in cash than right and holding through a 40% drawdown, but i am very certain this time

Here's what I'm looking at...

Buffett is sitting on $397 billion in cash. A new all-time record.

He's been a net seller for 13 consecutive quarters. That's 3 full years of selling. He offloaded 75% of Apple, 77% of Amazon, 50%+ of Bank of America.

These were his highest conviction holdings. He didn't trim them, he gutted them

That cash isn't sitting in a savings account. It's parked in US Treasury bills earning ~5% annually. He's choosing guaranteed 5% over the entire US stock market.

Think about what that means.

And here's the scale of it: $397 billion is roughly ₹33 lakh crore. If he deployed just 10% of that in India, he could buy Indian Companies like Infosys, Maruti, Sun Pharma, Mahindra, Axis Bank, and NTPC. ENTIRELY

That's how much dry powder the world's greatest investor is sitting on instead of buying stocks.

He's not scared of a crash; He's waiting for one. He's said publicly he's seen 60 years of markets and only 5 of them were genuinely worth deploying into, He wants a 50% correction.

The $397 billion is a loaded gun pointed at the post-crash market.

The valuation numbers back this up completely.

The Shiller CAPE ratio (cyclically adjusted PE) is sitting at 40 right now. The last time it was this high was 1999, right before the dot-com crash.

The crash came when it hit 43. In 2008, it was only at 26 before the collapse.

The Buffett Indicator (total market cap divided by GDP) is at 230%. Buffett himself has said above 200% means you're playing with fire. It's at 230.

The AI boom is being compared to the dot-com bubble for a reason. Nvidia up 1400% in 5 years, Memory stocks up 3600-4100% post-listing, OpenAI is still not profitable and continues burning billions annually.

The infrastructure companies are getting paid from funding rounds, not real revenue.

And it's not just Buffett.

1. Moody's AI recession model is at 49% probability. Historically, once it crosses 50%, a recession has followed within a year. J.P. Morgan is putting a 35% chance on a US recession in 2026.
2. Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator just hit its highest reading since 2021, landing in the 99th percentile of all observations since 1991. Extreme greed.
3. The S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average. VIX is elevated. 76% of investors in a recent survey said they're worried about a correction this year.
4. Hedge funds are sitting on their biggest short bet against US stocks in years.
5. Nifty is already down over 1% today as I'm writing this.

  

When the world's most patient investor is hoarding cash, when every major valuation metric is at historic extremes, when institutional money is quietly moving to the exits, I don't need to be a genius to read the room.

28% on a small neglected book is fine. Giving it back in a drawdown I watched coming would not be fine

I’ve spent the last few months trading almost nothing but covered calls, but I realized I was spending more time in spreadsheets than actually trading.

Most online calculators I found felt like they were selling "hopium." They either use a basic theoretical approximation for Probability of Profit (PoP) or they use Geometric Brownian Motion with a baked-in risk-free rate. The problem with that? It assumes the stock will just "drift up" over time. That’s not a stress test; it’s a guess.

I built ThetaSim to be more of a "Robot Scientist." I switched to Arithmetic Brownian Motion (ABM) for the 1,000-path Monte Carlo engine. By setting the drift to zero, the model assumes the market is a "zero-drift" environment. This means if the strategy shows a positive EV, it’s because of the structure of the trade and the premium captured, not because the model gave me a free ride.

For Full Transparency: I’ve put a lot of work into the simulation engine (Equity curves, IV crush/spike visualizers, and Gamma risk), so those deeper analytics are behind a Pro tier. However, I wanted the "Free" side to actually be useful—so the basic PoP and Annualised Return metrics use the exact same Monte Carlo math as the pro tools, not a cheap shortcut.

I'm looking for your feedback. If you’ve got a minute to use it, let me know what you think and happy premium hunting.

TL;DR: Built a CC simulator that doesn't "cheat" by assuming the stock goes up.

thetasim.app

HPQ’s 30 minute chart shows a head and shoulders pattern, possibly predicting bad earnings are coming in a few weeks…. What is the best way to profit from this using put options?

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