r/RKLBInvestors

I've been going through Rocket Lab's filings because I wanted to separate what the company has already proven from what still needs to go right.

The existing business is getting pretty substantial.

Q1 2026 revenue was $200.3M, up 63% year over year.

GAAP gross margin improved to 38.2% from 28.8%.

Backlog increased from $1.85B at the end of 2025 to $2.22B at the end of Q1.

Electron also looks increasingly established rather than experimental at this point. Rocket Lab completed 21 Electron missions in 2025 and another six in Q1 2026. The company had reached 77 successful Electron missions by late February.

The balance sheet also gives them a lot of room. At the end of Q1 they had about $1.48B in cash and marketable securities.

The part that still makes the thesis difficult for me is Neutron.

Rocket Lab is still losing money. Q1 net loss was $45M, operating cash burn was $50.3M, and capex was another $27.1M.

R&D increased 46% year over year, with Neutron development one of the main reasons.

A lot of that runway was also created through equity issuance.

Rocket Lab raised $445.6M net through ATM sales in Q1 alone.

During 2025 it sold more than 30M shares through ATM programs and raised over $1.1B gross.

There are also about 7.3M shares underlying convertible notes.

So the company can clearly fund Neutron for quite a while, but shareholders have already paid a meaningful amount for that runway.

Then there's backlog.

$2.22B looks great, but Rocket Lab explicitly says launch and spacecraft contracts typically contain customer termination rights.

That doesn't make the backlog meaningless. It just makes me hesitant to treat the entire number like locked in future revenue.

The way I currently see RKLB is that there are really two separate questions:

1. How valuable is the business Rocket Lab has already built without giving Neutron much credit?
2. How much additional value should be assigned to Neutron before it has demonstrated a reliable launch and production cadence?

The first part looks considerably stronger after going through the filings than I expected.

The second still seems like the major variable.

If Neutron works and reaches useful cadence without another huge increase in capital requirements, Rocket Lab becomes a very different company.

If Neutron takes significantly longer or costs much more than expected, the existing business has to carry a valuation that currently assumes quite a lot of future execution.

For people who follow RKLB closely, how much of your thesis actually depends on Neutron succeeding?

We have all the positive news and hopium about the company and the stock but my strategy is to gather all the positive aspects and all the negative aspects of the stock and weight them in my mind to create a net score. Currently my mental scale is too positive for RKLB. I want to know your most negative takes on the company / stock and the future.

My take is spacex and elon musk would manipulate the market and prevent the stock to go up to its potential as elon musk have too much political power and the industry is very sensitive to government regulations and alsoelon is somewhat expert in market manipulation.

Also the investors are waiting for the neutron and this creates pressure on the team, that pressure would end up being a failure in the first launch pad tests (as in the last fuel tank rupture but worse).

Still the positive aspects are way stronger for me in the long term. What is your negative take?

The Neutron timing concern obviously grabbed most of the attention after earnings, but I thought the underlying quarter was actually pretty strong.

$234M record revenue, $2.36B backlog, better-than-guided adjusted EBITDA, and a pretty significant amount of new launch + space systems contracts.

To me, the bigger story is that Rocket Lab is becoming a much larger space business before Neutron is even contributing meaningful revenue.

Sharing this article which highlight some of the important things that market may be overlooking.

PS: I am adding more shares! NFA DYOR

I’m an investor too, but I think the first wave is pretty much over.

Now it might be time to start looking for an entry around $40 again.

I’m hearing that Wall Street is starting to sell off Rocket Lab as of today, mainly because of the uncertainty around Neutron.

If that’s the case, be ready for another drop. Don’t get caught thinking every dip is automatically a buying opportunity.

Just turned 18 and now finally able to invest. Would you say its still a wise decision to invest? Im aware that many of you will have like a 50x if it would one day hit 250$. But investing now could still bring like a 4-5x in the few years or is this rather delusional? Cause my goal to invest the money i can set aside during the time im at uni so i can hit like 100k in additional investment way before turning 25. Opinions on this?

Let's list the TEN positive catalysts from this incredible earnings call shall we?

1. DOUBLE Earnings Beat! - 35 MILLION more in Rev than estimated

2. TWO not one but TWO 260 and 330+ MILLION dollar contracts in the past few weeks! With MORE beef to come from Space Force's 17 BILLION dollar Lane 1 Slush Fund

3. Iridium Acquisition - with access to millions of subscribers, a 60 satellite constellation already in orbit to service the Communications Sector AND the GPS LEO Security Sector. In the process the also acquire their 500+ Million a year in revenue!! GENIUS!

4. The Surprising launch of the GHOST Initiative! - a new globally-deployable containerized launch system to enable suborbital and orbital launches from anywhere in the world!! HWAATT??

5. A new Launch pad in Alaska to service Space Force missions!

6. A new launch facility is being built in GERMANY!! To facilitate new European Commercial Space Contracts! Again...HWATT??

7. Their Space Systems division is making BANK! 500 MILLION a year on its own!!! They are custom designing for clients, building, and deploying satellites! WHO does that? NO ONE. Even SPCX does NOT have the capability to do that! They only design their own Starlinnk that is it.

8. They make SOLAR panels for the Space Industry as well! Extra Bonus Points!

9. They have a whole OPTICAL SYSTEMS DIVISION - Design, engineering, and manufacturing of custom, high-precision optical and optomechanical instruments! Huh??

10. And last but NOT least - NEUTRON ON SCHEJ for a Q4 Launch!

Literally...Holy Sh*t Batman. Holy Sh*t.

https://www.webullapp.com/s/post/984431697185042432?hl=en